Superstars Score... Yawn... (6/20)

TIMES SQUARE, NEW YORK -- Three prolific scorers scored, all just enough to lead their team to beat a very underdog team, 1-0.  Luis Suarez scored early for A4-Uruguay which held up and sent both A1-Russia and Uruguay into the Round of 16 and eliminating A2-Saudi Arabia and A3-Egypt.  For the second straight match, B1-Portugal's Ronaldo scored in the 4' and that was barely enough to hold off B3-Morocco.  B2-Spain's Diego Costa scored for the second straight match nine minutes into the second half and fought off a tenacious B4-Iran team that you would never have known they had zero shots on goal.  And one of the potential shots on goal that went in in the 62' was called back by VAR after review showed Iran was offsides.  The three heavy favorites were just ho-hum in sleep walking to 3 points. 

Spain's win eliminated

Issue #2.1.1 "Favorites Exposed in Russia" (After 16 Matches)

Archive

Tuesday, June 19, 2018 

GERMANY STUNNED AND GROUP H UPSIDE DOWNA record 79 entries vie for 6th pool title; Ilvecchio is in 1st

LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (LAX), CA (smt) --  The host nation A1-Russia opened the World Cup in grand fashion thrashing A2-Saudi Arabia 5-0but it was F2-Mexico who provided the biggest shockwave of the tournament, literally according to seismologists, with a 1-0 win over the defending champions.  F1-Germany is ranked #1 in the world and won all 10 UEFA qualifying matches with a +39 goal differential.  The biggest upset, however, was the smallest-ever qualifying nation of D2-Iceland scoring a game-tying goal against powerhouse D1-Argentina.  Just a few years ago Iceland was ranked in the triple-digits and then the shocking win over England in EUROs two years ago gave them a Gonzaga-like vibe and who wouldn't want to do the Skol Viking Chant?  Lionel Messi also missed a penalty kick that kept the game tied at 1.  The odds-on favorite to win the World Cup, E1-Brazil, struggled against a foul-against-Neymar E2-Swiss team and ended up with a disappointing tie, even though SUI is ranked 6th in the world.  It's much better than their previous two WC matches, a 3-0 loss to Netherlands and a 7-1 thrashing by Germany.  Only G1-Belgium came away with a victory, a convincing one as well 3-0, amongst the top 6 ranked teams in the world. 

In the most anticipated match of the Group Stage, Match # 3 saw the two Iberian peninsula powers, B1-Portugal and B2-Spain, go at it for what seemed like the millionth time and the match didn't disappoint.  From

Straight Red (6/19)

The first red card of the tournament!  Just three minutes in, H4-Japan caught H3-Colombia off-guard and what could've been a red card (at least a yellow) for trying to drag down Yuya Osako as he went 1v1 on the GK, credit to Osako, he didn't dive, continued forward with the shot that was saved but the rebound shot by Shinji Kagawa is saved by Carlos Sanchez... by his arm and he reaches out to stop the ball.  Dumb play as Colombia could've easily rallied from a very early 1-0 deficit, but much harder to do with just 10 men.  In my mischief, I was kinda hoping there would be two reds on Colombia but one is good enough.  Credit to Colombia for fighting back and the classic free kick UNDER the wall was brilliantly done to level up 1-1 (reminded me of David Beckham's first match in New York in 2007, where Juan Pablo Angel did the same thing, going under the LA Galaxy wall past the GK on a free kick).  But Japan would get the game-winner off a corner and becomes the first AFC team to beat a CONMEBOL team in World Cup play.

Meanwhile, H2-Senegal used a H1-Poland own goal to gain confidence and never let

One Favorite Proves Its Might (6/18)

While the three odds-on favorites (BRA, GER, ESP) to win the Cup have gone 0-1-2, just on the outside is G1-Belgium, ranked #3 in the world and in the second half they exploded against newbie G2-Panama scoring 3 times in a 3-0 win.  Only top group seeds A1-Russia and C1-France have managed to pick up wins, and Russia was technically the fourth-best team in the group.  H1-Poland plays Tuesday.

Harry Kane scored early and in final stoppage time to give

Heavy favorites struggle (6/17)

The constant aggressiveness by F2-Mexico to start the match paid off in a big way with lots of opportunities and a great effort and finish by Hirving Lozano.  The defending champs took back possession but Mexico kept the pressure on, committing 15 fouls.  F1-Germany had 61% of the possession and took 25 shots, 9 on goal but was held scoreless.  Will MEX keep up the momentum or have a typical letdown against a lesser team such as F4-Korea Republic? Who would have thought GER would score UEFA's first loss of the tournament (was 5-0-3 with SRB's win)?

While GER was picked by 22 to win the 2018 WC, E1-Brazil picked by

FFB 18.02 "Rising Stars to Watch" (6/16)

Archive

 

Saturday, June 16, 2018

[ ARG | BRA | COL | EGY | FRA | GER | POR | URU | Rest ]

ARGENTINA doesn't have a stand-out rising star, and certainly no one closely resembling the next Messi. And there's the rub...the sun is setting on La Pulga and his generation, and they'll have to win with the usual suspects.  Two unproven youngsters I should mention would be Giovani Lo Celso and Paulo Dybala.  At age 24, Dybala is a mainstay striker for Juventus, scoring 22 goals in 33 matches.  But with Argentina, he has but 8 caps, and his natural position is occupied by a moored teammate...Leo Messi.  Perhaps he gets at least one substitution opportunity during the World Cup round robin stage...a small window of time to generate an impact.  Lo Celso, on the other hand, may not even make an appearance.  Only 22 years old, the midfielder notched 4 goals in 32 PSG appearances this season...this rising talent may have to wait til 2022 to make an impact on Argentina’s fortunes.

BRAZIL.  Getting a roster spot for this team is tough, given the

Technology tested early (6/16)

The only thing missing was a water break in terms of new twists that have been added the past few years.  The first goal confirmed by goal line technology (via ref's watch) happened in the 81' giving C1-France the goal ahead goal off a shot off the crossbar that bounced just inside white line.  Interesting that they gave the minute of the goal when the ref confirmed the goal line technology and not when the ball actually crossed the line.  In that same match, the new VAR (Video Assistant Referee) review system was used to determine that there was a penalty in the box and FRA was awarded a penalty kick that they converted for the first score.  C2-Australia battled back with their own PK but in the end, France held on 2-1 (Edit -- FRA's goal was changed to an own goal the next morning after another review -- the website called it an own goal, the official match report had it as a goal for more than 12 hours after the match).

In the surprise of the tourney, tiny D2-Iceland may not have much possession but they never panicked and even tried

Current standings posted

We will see how often I can update the standings, but as of now, the standings are current after the first four matches.  Also, in conjunction, the results of the first four matches are now available.  Both pages are now linked at the top.  If you wanted to know any of the previous days standings or results, you can check it out at The Archive page, now linked on the right.  You can also find links to the previous 5 pools as well as our two Euro Pools and 2015's Women's World Cup Pool.

Harry O has 2 of his 3 entries perfect (Teuton and Popozao).  He is one of 4 who entered the max of three entries.  Eleven others entered twice (including me).  While four are perfect at 4-0, 10 are 1-3 thus far.  Still lots of games to be played.  Quick Note:  You will only get points for a team advancing after their 3rd match (thus, if RUS beats EGY, they qualify for the Round of 16 after just two matches, but you will not get those 3 points until after Group A is complete).

Classic start and Spain-Portugal an instant classic (6/14-6/15)

For the host nation, A1-Russia got off to a great start in routing poor A2-Saudi Arabia, 5-0 and continued the streak of the host nation not losing in their opening match.  In our LA Galaxy Press Box circles, we refer to this as the "Pando", a rare score just as the rare sight of Pando scoring in the LA Galaxy's 2005 season where Pando Ramirez set a record (that may still exist?) for worst shooting percentage and his only goal was on a penalty kick, that bounced off the post and off the keeper (i.e., really  a miss).  Of course, all was redeemed as he scored the game-winner in overtime of the MLS Cup (where I called it, at the end of regulation, in the bathroom of the restaurant we were watching the game on, to the laughter of those in there... but I knew).  But with the rout, Russia could just hope for one point in the next two matches and pray the goal differential will get them to the next round.

Late goals propelled A4-Uruguay and B4-Iran to 1-0 wins, the latter benefiting on a 90'+5 own goal in a match B3-Morocco should have won.  So in a few days, Morocco loses the 2026 big and their opening match.

In the game everyone was looking forward to, the Iberian Derby, B1-Portugal and B2-Spain played a

Admin's Picks

Here are Scott's two entries as he kisses another $20 away.

Futbol Fabone Devyat'

Back in the U.S.S.R.

We unofficially have 68 entries!  We are close to topping our record of 75 in 2014.  Can we do it?  On our Facebook poll, 7 of 9 people said they were LESS interested in the World Cup because the U.S. isn't in it, but I guess "less interested" is still better than most things right now, except for The Expanse (thanks Amazon for saving the show!).  Still four hours left to enter before the 8 am PDT deadline.

FFB 18.01 "Contenders, Pretenders, and Surprises"

Archive

  

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

PREDICTING HOW FAR 10 SQUADS WILL GO

[ Contenders | Pretenders | Surprises ]

CONTENDERS
Germany	Star Power.  Depth.  Team Chemistry.  Experience.  A history of winning.  Well-coached. Some of the many reasons Germany is a tournament favorite once again.  The only thing missing from the 2014 iteration of the Defending Champs is Philipp Lamm, their maestro midfielder and leader who retired surprisingly young.  And how does Germany’s semi-finals bracket look?  Until the semi-final game, where they are likely to play Spain, there are teams they’ve dominated (Argentina) and another pair of teams Germany will simply outclass (Colombia & England).  Italy, the one team that has historically given Germany fits (and defeats) in the World Cup, didn’t qualify… another reason Germany’s chances of repeating are looking bright.  The winner of Spain vs. Germany may be the eventual champion.
Spain	La Roja Furia cruised thru their qualification, winning all but one game, which was a draw, and meanwhile sent Italy packing.  Spain has its 2010 WC & 2012 Euro Championship team stalwarts at defense (Ramos & Pique) and midfield (Iniesta) complemented by a newer, yet seasoned stars at all positions, including goal keeper De Gea and a healthy poaching striker in Diego Costa.  They’re firing on all cylinders, dominating possession and scoring plenty of goals while keeping clean sheets.  Spain’s depth is also an insurance policy, preventing untimely injuries from derailing their campaign.  A clear Top 4 squad this year.
France	France isn’t a dark horse, but perhaps I’m giving them more credit than they deserve when I say they are a Top 3 favorite to win the whole thing.  Young, energetic, hungry, and talented, France has a roster that has matured, and still on the rise.  Although they narrowly lost in Extra Time to Portugal at the Euro 2016 Championship, they were clearly the better side for the first 90 minutes of that game.  The favorites sometimes

United vs Morocco... And the winner is...

USA (and Canada), USA!, USA (and Mexico)!  Politics took a back seat to cash as for the first time, all FIFA eligible members voted on the next host of the World Cup, this one an expanded 48-team event in 2026 (not in the winter!).  134 of the 199 (of 211) nations cast their ballot for "United 2026" with Morocco still managing to get an impressive 65 votes.  USA (and Canada and Mexico) had gotten the vote fast-tracked but Morocco still was able to sneak in on the eve of the deadline. 

The good news is Canada will automatically qualify for the World Cup for the first time since 1986 (assuming they don't get in 2022) and the USA won't have to recycle Sampson/Bradley/Arena/Klinsmann as coach to save qualifying in 2025.  Mexico will continue to qualify and continue to not make it past the Round of 16 which it has done since 1990.

With 44 entries, we may actually get close to our record 75 set last time in 2014.  Hmmmm...  Remember, the deadline is 8 am PDT Thursday!  I may not get to check for errors so I will be emaing some of you if you accidentally filled out the Round of 16 bracket incorrectly.  No worries!

Head to Head

Interesting battles between World Cup teams in friendlies this month as we ramp up to Thursday's start of the 21st World Cup.  Asian countries are struggling with H4-Korea Republic losing to H2-Senegal 2-0, H4-Japan losing to E2-Switzerland 2-0, and A2-Saudi Arabia losing to F1-Germany 2-1 and C3-Peru 3-0.  CONCACAF's E3-Costa Rica were routed by G1-Belgium 4-1 and G4-England 2-0.  F3-Sweden & Peru and Belguim & B1-Portugal both played to scoreless draws while B2-Spain & Switzerland and H3-Colombia & A3-Egypt both drew 1-1.  D3-Croatia beat Senegal 2-1 but lost to E1-Brazil 2-0.  Belgium also crushed Egypt 3-0 and England beat D4-Nigeria 2-0.

Friendlies conclude Tuesday with Group H teams Japan and H1-Poland playing non-World Cup teams as they don't start their World Cup until next Tuesday, June 19th.

We have 14 entries thus far with more than two days left to enter.  Deadline is 8 am PDT Thursday.  Good luck!

Issue #1.0.1 "Six Sigma Not Enough for USA"

Archive

Sunday, June 10, 2018 ***HAPPY BIRTHDAY WIFEY***

IMPROBABLE BUT NOW POSSIBLE, USA AND ITALY ARE OUT
Our 6th World Cup pool arrives late but will still be six-sigma of fun

JET PROPULSION LABORATORY, PASADENA, CA (smt) --  There will be no Red, White, and Blue nor Gli Azzurri (snapping a streak of 14 straight World Cups) nor Clockwork Orange (who also missed 2016 EURO) in the World Cup in Russia.  All three teams will watch from the sidelines as 32 teams vie for the 21st World Cup including newcomers D2-Iceland (which beat G4-England at Euro 2016 and is the smallest population nation to qualify) and G2-Panama and long-awaited returns from C3-Peru (1982) and A3-Egypt (1990).   #1 ranked F1-Germany will have to battle favorites E1-Brazil and fan-favorite B2-Spain if they want to repeat as champions.  Host A1-Russia had the lowest rank when the World Cup Draw happened and will try to not become the 2nd host team to fail to qualify for the Knockout Stage (South Africa, 2010). 

For the first time, FIFA ranked all 32 qualifying teams in rank order, including pots 2, 3, and 4, which were usually divided into regional confederations.  As such, it was possible one group could have all been UEFA members or not have any UEFA members.  But there ended up being a good mix in all the groups... except for Group A, which happens to be the host country.  Russia, which was already ranked lowest in Pot 1 by far, got the 2nd worst team in Pot 2 (A4-Uruguay), the 3rd worst team in Pot 3 (A3-Egypt), and the worst team overall in Pot 4 (A4-Saudi Arabia).  C1-France (worst of Pot 1) drew the 2nd best team in Pot 2 (C2-Peru), the best team in Pot 3 (C3-Denmark), and the 3rd best team in Pot 4 (C4-Australia).  The toughest group has the 3rd best in Pot 1 (E1-Brazil), the 3rd best in Pot 2 (E2-Swiss), the 3rd best in Pot 3 (E3-Costa Rica), and the best in Pot 4 (E4-Serbia).

While Italy and the Netherlands failed to qualify in the harsh UEFA qualifying rounds, the USA somehow managed to not qualify in the easiest region in the world for the first time since 1986.  Before the ill-fated October 10, 2017 day, ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) had the USA with a 97% chance of finishing in the top 4 of the CONCACAF table (top 3 advance, 4th to make playoff).  And despite playing like an amateur team against another third-rate team in front of just 1,500 people, with 43 minutes left,

2018 World Cup Pool online entry is up!

Thanks for everyone's patience.  A lot of traveling this year and when I thought I had a couple of months to get the pool started, suddenly it's down to the last week.  But you get just 3 1/2 days to get your NCAA picks in and now you get 5 full days to get your picks in before the 8 am PDT Thursday deadline.  Same rules as always.  Just make sure that your Round of 16 has 16 different teams (and remember, it doesn't matter how you pick your Group stage matches though you can maximize points if you do).  I'll be at the Galaxy match Saturday night if you are in the press box.  You can enter up to 3 times ($10 per entry) and maybe, without the USA or Italy or the Dutch in the way, you may end up in the winner's circle!

So enter now!