"Underdogs" Win (8/1)

MOON JELLYFISH IN LONG BEACH, CA -- The teams with less rest manged to drive to comfortable wins as the quarterfinals came to an end.  Minnesota United FC, with an extra days rest, scored a minute and a half apart in the first half but saw their lead cut in half on a PK and it looked like the San Jose Earthquakes may just rally again.  But six minutes later MIN scored and then added another insurance goal to win 4-1.  MIN has relished their underdog status despite being one of the undefeated teams in the tourney and the regular season (which includes the group stage matches).  There was no more Wondo magic (who came in after MIN went up 3-1) or lucky golden shorts magic.

New York City FC, who finished 3rd in Group A, was surprisingly the favorite as I guess POR were playing on two days less rest and barely survived FC Cincinnati the shootout.  And NYC stuck first on a PK but POR tied it right before the half with is always a deflater for the leading team.  The second half saw subs Diego Valeri and Andy Polo score, with the latter with a golazo from outside the box past the outstretched GK (who got his finger tips on it) into the upper right corner.  POR's 3-1 win gives the Western Conference two teams and the Eastern Conference two teams in the Final Four.  There is a 3-day break before the Semis begin Tuesday.

Five picked MIN and that was enough to eliminate Kona Coast Fauci's and Kona Coast Sliders (even though they had NYC later) and keep Deutschland = Koenig from taking second.  It also gave The Six Foot Box at least third place... but with an asterisk as he could lose the 3rd place tiebreaker to Deutschland = Koenig if the total goals is less than 7 and PHI and ORL win their semifinal matches.  All 8 possible outcomes are now detailed in our Final Four Possibilities format.  No one got POR meaning TarjetaRoja was the only entry to get 2 of the 4 semifinalists (MIN, PHI) but can't get any more points.  Pool Champion Bobby Cee Racer also got MIN to finish the tourney with 76 points.

So the free USPS Priority Mail mailers came in the mail today (3 "mails" in a phrase!) and I can fit a jersey, a hat and a scarf in there.  And will try to stuff other goodies as well for our winner, Rob C (Bobby Cee Racer).  Second place will get a hat and scarf and third will get a scarf.  Vintage NASL stickers, LA Galaxy programs, bangers, cell phone credit card holders, and other things that are small, I'll toss in since there is no weight limitation.

Can You Hear Me Now? (7/31)

SON EDGED THE GRASS, CA -- Remember a couple days ago when FC Cincinnati's Jurgen Locadia scored a PK against Portland Timber GK Tyler Miller but when it came to the penalty kick shootout (PSO), Miller got his revenge and made the save against Locadia?  Well, here in the mismatch between never-made-the-playoffs Orlando City SC and scored-3.75-goals-per-match Los Angeles Football Club.... but, let's start at the beginning.

ORL, with two more days rest, played even with LAFC and had a breakthrough when they were awarded a PK.  But LAFC's GK Kenneth Vermeer came up big with a diving stretched out save against Nani to keep the match scoreless in the 57'.  And 3 minutes later, LAFC were on the board with Bradley Wright-Philips' fourth goal in 5 matches with LAFC in the 60' (first LAFC of the match).  Host ORL were still fighting and on a CK, ORL headed it for a goal in the 90' which did not make head coach Bob Bradley happy.  The stats were actually heavy in favor of ORL (17 shots to 8, 7 CKs to 4, 52% possession to 48%).  Opta, once again is its usually self, somehow crediting ORL with 5 shots on goal but LAFC with 5 saves.... then the goal was not a shot on goal?  Only Opta as we say in the LA Galaxy Press Box.

In the PSO, LAFC hit the crossbar on their second attempt but made the other four.  Vermeer actually saved ORL's fourth shot but the ball trickled behind him into the goal.  At 4-4, Nani had a chance to win it (got to give it to him going 5th, that's what we want our DPs to do) and, did I mention the CIN-POR story above, Nani got his revenge and nailed the game-winner, 5-4, in the PSO.  Nani ran with a "can you hear me now?" pose and the celebration in both the clubhouse and at ORL's stadium were great.  I do not like the stutter-steps when players take PKs though.  With prior exuberant celebrations by San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC, and now ORL, this makes it feel like a World Cup atmosphere.  As great as LAFC are, they tend to falter in knockout matches.  They finally beat LA Galaxy last year in the playoffs and then lose to Seattle Sounders FC.  They beat SEA in Round of 16 and then lose to ORL.  And Bradley is not happy.

In the pool, no one picked ORL and 9 lost out on LAFC.  And with 5 matches to go, we have our champion!  Bobby Cee Racer (70 pts) is our first HWCI MLS Pool Champion.  TarjetaRoja (2nd, 63) who had clinched a spot yesterday will finish 2nd or 3rd.  Four others will fight for that last prize spot.  

Tomorrow, 5 picked MIN and 5 picked NYC.  Beyond that, The Six Foot Box (3rd, 59) has MIN in final and Deutschland = Koenig (4th, 57) has PHI in final.  Those two could snatch 2nd away from TarjetaRoja.  With LAFC out, no one will pick the correct champion.  Go Chivas, who had LAFC as his champ, has clinched last place (47).  He, along with BigRedMessy (5th-Tied, 56) and BigRedMessi 2 (10th-T, 53) were eliminated.

3 in 15 Minutes (7/30)

ALL DAY DESIGN REVIEW, CA -- The Philadelphia Union scored three times in 15 minutes of the first half to beat Sporting Kansas City, 3-1, to advance to the semifinal against either New York City FC or Portland Timbers.  Sergio Santos assisted on the first goal and scored twice, his first off a breakway when SKC had a poor passback to midfield.  The second half was actually scoreless though SKC nearly cut the lead to one early in the second half but the free kick went off the left post.  SKC GK Tim Melia, who was brilliant in the PSO last match, had a 429-minute shutout streak before he allowed 3 in 15 minutes.

In the pool, 3 had PHI making the Semis including TarjetaRoja (2nd, 63 pts) who becomes the first to clinch at least a tie for the top 3 prizes and a 12.5% chance to win the pool.  Bobby Cee Racer, who leads the pool by 7, is still in the high 90s at 96.9% or 62 of 64 possible outcomes he would finish in the top 3 and a 75% to win the pool.  BigRedMessy (5th-T, 56) is the only other with a chance to win the pool (12.5%).  Six others have a chance to finish in the top 3.

Issue 6.2.1 "Groups A and F Dominate" (After Round of 16)

                                                                        Archive

GROUPS A AND F GET ALL 5 TEAMS IN AS UPSETS CONTINUE
Bobby Cee Racer leads by 11 and he and TarjetaRoja nearly clinch prize spots

THE HOME OFFICE, CA (smt) -- In an odd quirk, there were three Group A vs Group C matchups in the Round of 16 and all three went to Group A.  The two Group E teams both lost on Tuesday via penalty kick shootouts (PSOs).  Both Group F teams advanced as well as 2 of 3 Group D teams and the top team from Group B.  Just one 3rd place team advanced and two Group winners lost.  This is MLS!

Top teams 1C-Toronto FC (without Ayo Akinola who had 5 goals) and 1E-Columbus Crew FC struggled with the former losing to 3rd place 3A-New York City FC 3-1 and the latter losing in the PSO 5-3 to 2D-Minnesota United FC.  1B-San Jose Earthquakes (Wondo scoring for the 3rd straight match off the bench) and 2F-Los Angeles Football Club (Diego Rossi scoring twice more giving him 7 in the tourney) exploded for 5-2 and 4-1 wins, respectively while host 1A-Orlando City FC and 2A-Philadelphia Union each scored in the 2nd half and held on to 1-0 victories.  1D-Sporting Kansas City (with club record 36 shots) and 1F-Portland Timbers played well but couldn't finish and found themselves surprisingly going to the PSO with short-staffed 3B-Vancouver Whitecaps FC (8.5:1 underdogs) and second-year 2E-FC Cincinnati, respectively.  But both prevailed preventing the big upsets and didn't join TOR and CLB in going home early. 

Double Shootout (7/28)

SON TRYING TO BE A YOUTUBER , CA -- Columbus Crew SC gave up a goal for the first time in 299 minutes but rallied to tie with Gyasi Zardes putting in his rebound off his PK which was saved in the 79'.  In the penalty kick shootout, Minnesota United FC GK Tyler Miller made another save which was enough as MIN hit all five PKs to win the PSO 5-3.  Chase Gasper's GW PK was right down the middle. CLB finishes 9th in the tourney but 1st in the Eastern Conference when regular season hopefully resumes play later this month.

The Portland Timbers were cruising 1-0, scoring in the 67' (snapping FC Cincinnati's 277-shutout streak) after a CIN goal was taken away by VAR for an offsides in the 62', until POR GK Steve Clark made the oddest decision to try to play a CIN kicked long ball with his feet instead of picking it up and had to trip the CIN player encroaching.  Jürgen Locadia stepped up and put converted giving the underdog CIN the tying goal in the 81'.  It didn't stop there for these two players.  In the 86', a CIN shot somehow went through Clark's hand but luckily hit the right post and bounced out.  In the 88' a perfect cross gave Locadia a tap in from six yards away but he shanked it over the bar.  On to the penalty kick shootout, both teams have converted their first two PKs and Locadia is up again to face Clark.  This time, Clark makes the save and redeems himself.  Like MIN, POR didn't miss and their 4th was the winning kick, 4-2.

So Group D and F send their second team into the Quarters (beating both teams from Group E) joining 3 from Group A and SJ from Group B.  There is a day of rest and then three days of quarterfinals.

In the pool, 7 picked MIN into the Quarters which eliminated BigRedMessi 2 and Deutschland = Koening from winning the pool and meant Super League was finally eliminated along with Coronavius_Sucks! from the top 3 prizes.  Bobby Cee Racer and Super League were the only two to pick POR (no one had CIN) as the former now has a huge 11-point lead (70 pts).  Surprisingly, he hasn't clinched the top 3 yet as he (98.4%) and TarjetaRoja (92.2%) are almost there, essentially leaving just one spot up for grabs.  POR's win eliminated The Six Foot Box from the winning the pool and Futbol Fabone Eleven from the top 3.  Interestingly, both of those entries are mine and that leaves 3 with a chance to win the pool and 9 with a chance for the top 3.

Double Rout (7/27)

BOY SCOUT EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS, CA -- Real Salt Lake tied the match about 21 seconds after kicking off following San Jose Earthquakes' first goal with a great chip over the GK to go into halftime tied at 1.  But SJ came out scoring four times in the second half (matching Los Angeles Football Club's 4 2nd half goals vs LA Galaxy) in dominating a frustrated RSL team, 5-2.  SJ had two PKs (both converted by Magnus Eriksson who also added an assist) and RSL had two players sent off.  SJ's Wondo scored off the bench for a 3rd straight match.

In the heavyweight marque match, LAFC got its revenge on last year's playoff loss whipping Seattle Sounders FC, 4-1 behind Diego Rossi's two goals (7 for the tourney).  LAFC was fast and had control but when Rossi couldn't be a couple of golden chances away, SEA came back to cut LAFC's lead in half at 2-1 with 15 minutes left.  But LAFC scored twice in 7 minutes as Rossi managed to finally put an easy goal away.  There were no cards in the match.

Concacaf announced a new WC22 qualifying format with 30 teams competing for three spots to join the top 5 teams to form the 8-team Final Round (no longer the Hex anymore, I guess the Oct).  The top five are 11-Mexico, 22-USA, 46-Costa Rica, 48-Jamaica, and 62-Honduras, based on the July 16th FIFA rankings.  The 30 teams in the First Round will be broken into six groups of five with 69-El Salvador, 73-Canada, 80-Curacao, 81-Panama, 86-Haiti, and 105-Trinidad and Tobago pre-seeded for each.  The six group winners will pair off in the Second Round and the 3 winners will advance to the Final Round.  With 8 teams competing for 3.5 spots, it will be harder for USA considering how poorly they do on the road.

In the pool, Coronavirus_Sucks! was the only one to get SJ and also was one of 13 to get LAFC.   2 got none.  She moved to 5th (54 pts) in the standings but Bobby Cee Racer still has a six point lead with 62 pts.  SJ's win eliminated Hereforthecommentary (8th-Tied, 51) from the top 3 and yours truly, Futbol Fabone Eleven (8th-T), from 1st.  13 had SEA going to the Quarters as the SEA-LAFC matchup was not expected so soon eliminating Carseroni (14th, 46) from the top 3, leaving 12 still alive and 6 who can win the pool.  Bobby Cee Racer still has a 63.1% chance to win the pool and slightly lower than yesterday 88.1% chance to finish in the top 3.  BigRedMessy (7th, 52) moved up with a 14.1% chance to win 1st and 40.2% chance to finish in the top 3.  He is the only entry left that still has his/her champion with LAFC.  3 had SEA winning it all including our leader.  With most favorites out, the most any entry could get is just 89 points.  Super League, in last with 43 pts, had a 1 in 1024 chance to finish 3rd and now sits at 1 in 512.

Group A Dominates, First PSO (7/26)

HOUSE CLEANING, CA -- New York City FC came out firing and Toronto FC, who were without Ayo Akinola due to injury (5 goals in tourney) were on their heels most of the match.  An early 5' goal set the mood as NYC got revenge on last year's playoff rematch, 3-1.  The last team to get into the Knockout Round is now in the Quarterfinals.  NYC's win also meant that all 3 Group A vs Group C match-ups went to Group A.  Group A has three teams in the Quarters (ORL, PHI, NYC).

Vancouver Whitecaps FC were huge underdogs hovering around 8.5:1 odds as they could only field 18 players (teams can field 23 like Sporting Kansas City did) using a 3rd-string GK with no backup GK (VAN only made one sub in the match).  With SKC coming out dominating the first half, it was a fun match to watch to see how the young GK Thomas Hasal would do and he did well, saving six shots in the first half and faced 22 shots.  He also ran into the goal net camera hitting it with his head (so adorable) and in the second half had a concussion check (remember, VAN has no backup GK) but he passed and kept the match scoreless.  

In the first penalty kick shootout of the Knockout Round (no Extra Time), VAN missed three (2 saved by Tim Melia who also had 5 saves during regulation) while Hasal made one save and nearly had another, but it wasn't enough as SKC goes to the Quarters winning the PSO 3-1.  Although it would have been nice to see VAN win, the next match also wouldn't have been pretty as SKC could've easily just as won 5-0 if they finished better.  SKC ended with 36 shots, a club record.  Hasal ended with 8 saves in regulation.

In the pool, 9 got NYC and no one got SKC, mainly because it was supposed to be ATL-SKC in the Round of 16 but ATL flamed out.  NYC's win eliminated Go Chivas (14th, 43 pts) from winning the pool (leaving 7) and made TomJ (13th, 44) the first entry to be eliminated from the top 3 prizes.  Bobby Cee Racer (58 pts) built his lead back to 6 points with Kona Coast Fauci's and Kona Coast Sliders moving into a tie for second.  Bobby Cee Racer still maintains a big advantage of winning the pool (67.9%) and finishing in the top 3 (93.7%).  

NWSL Season is Over?

PLANTING SPINACH, CA, -- If you didn't know (and you probably didn't), the NWSL Challenge Cup Final was today.  Apparently, the NWSL website knows but didn't know the match was already over an hour ago as its headline still is "Houston Dash, Chicago Red Stars Square off in NWSL Challenge Cup Championship".  It header has scores but starts from June 27 (unlike the MLS which shows the day's matches first).  Because all 8 teams (Orlando Pride had to withdraw due to positive COVID-19 tests) automatically qualified for the Quartefinals after Group Play (it was used to seed the teams 1-8), the Final saw #4 Houston Dash play #6 Chicago Red Stars.  HOU got an early PK and a stoppage time goal to win 2-0.  As the first pro team to league to finish, there is still no word if the Challenge Cup ends the 2020 season or not.  The bubble in Salt Lake City (or Sandy, UT where Rio Tinto Stadium is located) was successful and players will be excited to see their families again but, what then?

Since I've been on the topic of nicknames lately (ugh, Charlotte FC and Washington FT), I forgot to mention one of the cool ones as NWSL's expansion Louisville team announced on July 8 they would be Louisville FC (actually, the owner is USL Championship's Lou team, which is already named Louisville City FC -- so the women have one up on the men already)!  Just kidding, it's Racing Louisville FC with great crest and awesome purple hues (lavender and midnight violet) and a nod to the horse racing culture being the city hosts Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby.  I want a jersey!

Errors Lead to 1-0 Shutouts (7/25)

DROPPED MY 5-YEAR OLD IPAD AIR 2, CA -- With no Extra Time and matches going straight to penalty kick shootout, it's no wonder teams were tentative and both matches had scoreless first halves.  

Host 1A-Orlando City SC scored off a defensive miscue in the 60' to win 1-0 over the 3C-Impact de Montreal to advance to the Quarterfinals.  ORL played like the favorite they were as Thierry Henry's team lacked any urgency most of the match.  The line judge played a role nullifying an ORL goal by waving his flag.  If  the ref did what he was supposed to, in this photo-finish offsides, and waited to waive his flag after the goal or kept his flag down, it could've been reviewed by VAR.  ORL has a tough match ahead of them as they will face the winner of 2B-Seattle and 2F-LAFC, but ORL will have two extra days rest.

2A-Philadelphia Union scored off a NE midfield misplay at midfield in the 63' to win 1-0 over the 2C-New England Revolution to advance to the Quarterfinals.  Both Group A teams beat Group C teams.  1C-Toronto FC should then feel weary of their match against Group A 3A-New York City FC.

NE head coach Bruce Arena was red-carded after the match.  My estimates for Disciplinary Points only include match statistics since subsequent discipline or nullifying cards can come 1-2 days later and it's still not clear (nor any official total) how the DP is recalculated.  For instance, 4A-Inter Miami FC's Juan Agudelo's first yellow card was rescinded two days later, but he got a second card for a red card, so do the 7 points go down to 3, because the red card is still there.  Does any added supplemental mean 8 points so a card 1-2 days later means 8 points instead of 3 if it happened in the match?  Does a fine for simulation mean 8 points?  We probably won't get a tally unless it comes into play as a tiebreaker.

Four had ORL and 8 had PHI in the Quarterfinals.  Six Foot Box and Deutschland = Koenig got both right and are now just 3 points behind leader Bobby Cee Racer (54 pts).   Four got none right but Super League is still in last with 39 pts.

There was a small error in my 32K simulation but in correcting it for the 8K simulation, all entries are still alive.  But just 8 now remain who can win the pool.  Bobby Cee Racer is still the overwhelming favorite to win the pool (65.8%) and prizes (93.8%).  Six Foot Box and Deutschland = Koenig have a 48.2% and 43.9% of winning a prize with the latter with a 16.9% to win the pool.  Super League still has an 18 of 8192 chance of finishing 3rd.