Switchback (8/11)

PARC DE LA GATINEAU, CHELSEA, QC - So confused.  Where was this 1G-Sweden team who were crisp and creative in the first half instead of the defensive-minded team vs USA with just one shot on goal in 120 minutes?  And where was this tentative 1C-Japan team who were without a shot for 67 minutes instead of the clinical attacking team vs 2C-Spain and Norway?  

And then just like that, they switched back as SWE survived a missed JPN PK, got another ball goal line technology go their way (no goal for JPN off a wicked direct free kick), and weathered a late surge.  And then just like that, JPN's passing was short and crisp which led to 11 shots in the final 22 minutes+ and several chances for game-tying goal, but eventually fell short, 2-1.  Credit to SWE who outplayed JPN at their own game in the first half and then at the end, got their passing game back to waste time in stoppage.  The short JPN passing is so fun to watch and it's too bad they waiting too long to turn it back on.  SWE's GK came up with another clutch save in stoppage time and the one goal she allowed, she was slightly injured after that wicked free kick went off the crossbar and JPN recovered and put two shots in quick succession.  

ESP got a PK in the 81' but 1E-Netherlands fought back with some life finally and tied it in the 90'+1 (of 12 (!) minutes of added time).  NED then had two great chances in extra time but didn't get it on frame either time and then shortly thereafter ESP came down and scored the game-winner in 111'.  So we won't get a ESPvJPN rematch but we get an all-Euro semifinal (maybe the 1st of 2 depending on 1D-England and 1F-France results).  While in Ottawa, Subway had a CAN WNT promo with Christine Sinclair so had to get one (not hers, but the Canadian Classic) wearing my second Japan fan shirt, a 2022 Ukiyo-e version, which is a great blue wave combination.

18 got ESP and 16 SWE in the semifinals.  But no one got both as 34 went 1-1 (cause, USA should be in the semis, right?).  No change at the top with Kds911-2 still leading with 99 points with More$ 98 and Lavelle Lover 97.  But it's ShrimpOnTheBarbie (13th-Tied, 90) with the best chance to win the pool at 28.1% while Kds911-2 moves closer to money (71.9%).  More$ is 2nd but can't win the pool while ShrimpOnTheBarbie is tied for 13th and can win the pool.  Flying Elvi is tied for 13th and is eliminated while Sebastian is tied for 30th (83) and can still win 2nd.  Tiny Destroyer is still last (58).

Issue #8.2.1 "Early Exit Polls" (After Round of 16)

 Archive

Tuesday, August 8, 2023 

Dailies: Aug 5-6-7-8 

CHAMPS DOWN; ENGLAND SURVIVES; TOP TEAMS DAZZLE
Kds911-2 maintains 1-point lead but Lavelle Lover has best chance to win pool

HOME, CA (smt) --  Showing that their 4-0 loss to 1C-Japan was just a fluke, 2C-Spain exploded to a 4-1 halftime lead (scoring all 5 goals since 1A-Switzerland's goal was a Spanish own goal) to reach the quarterfinal in a 5-1 rout while JPN methodically broke a 1-1 halftime tie in a comfortable 3-1 win over 2A-Norway in a battle between #11 JPN and #12 NOR.  A potential rematch between JPN and ESP in the semifinals looms but they will have to win their quarterfinal matches first. 1F-France easily beat #72 2H-Morocco 4-0 and host 1B-Australia took care of business winning 2-0 over 2D-Denmark, that saw the brief return of Sam Kerr.  1E-Netherlands took advantage of winning the group beating #54 2G-South Africa, 2-0.

What wasn't a fluke?  2E-USA not being able to score.  Despite more controlling play, a stifling defense that only allowed one shot on goal, and lots of opportunities (21 shots, 12 on goal), USA went a full 120 minutes against 1G-Sweden scoreless (extending the goalless streak to 238 minutes) and then missed (not saved) three penalty kicks to lose 5-4.  A goal line technology "goal" showing the whole ball crossing the line by a hair was emblematic of USA's story this WWC.   That the highly reliable Meagan Rapinoe skied a penalty (years since she missed?) shows this WWC just didn't fit right with the USWNT, with odd substitutions, soft second yellow cards (not in this match though, the ref let them play), and talent on the field that looked more like an all-star team playing for the first time rather than a team.  If you look at it, USA only allowed two shots on goal the whole tournament.  Only allowed one goal (tied for best).  They tied and lost in the PSO to the #3 team in the world (not Nigeria, not Colombia).  #3.  They will finish 9th in this WWC as the best of the R16 losers but it doesn't make it any better (though Germany, Canada, and Brazil will say what about us?).

Back to Normal? (8/8)

HOME, CA - #5 1F-France scored four more goals and #25 1H-Colombia finally beat a team worse than them.  FRA left no doubt building a 3-0 halftime lead in beating #72 2H-Morocco, 4-0 including a wicked shot past an offside player who didn't interfere but watched the ball bounce off the left post and in.  MAR was ranked 67 spots worse than FRA but MAR had beaten #17 Korea Rep (55 spots better) and COL (47 spots better) but back to normal reigned supreme.  The aforementioned loss to MAR meant COL had only beat teams better than them (#2 Germany & KOR) but managed to squeak out a 1-0 win over #43 2F-Jamaica.  JAM allowed their first goal of the tourney and it cost them (they finished an odd 1 goal for-1 goal against in 4 matches).

So 7 of the 8 group winners made the quarterfinals (sorry, 1A-Swiss) which is why USA, you needed to score goals and win the group.  All 3 African and both CONCACAF teams lost while both Asian/Australian teams advanced with 5 Europeans and South American COL.  Wore my 2019 away France hexagon-dot jersey with rose pink logo in front of the sprawling Downey Kaiser hospital campus.

39 got FRA and GenX99er (21st, 81 pts) got COL.  40 went 1-1 while 7 went 0-2.  For the Round of 16, eight got 6 of 8 teams and two (Pink Penguino (45th, 66) and Rutin4Putin (46th, 64)) got just 2 of 8.  Kds911-2 maintains the one point lead (92 pts) over More$ with Lavelle Lover and Vlatko Better Win tied for 3rd (90).  Leader Tom J also sits tied for 5th (Kds911 (89)) and tied for 8th (Kds911-3, 88).  Tiny Destroyer is still last (58) but Rutin4Putin is the only entry that can't pick up any more points.

Despite picking COL, FRA winning eliminated GenX99er from the money along with two others, leaving 25 entries still in the running.  While leader Kds911-2 has the best chance to finish in the top 4 (51.6%), it's Lavelle Lover with the best chance to win the pool now (14.8%).  9 entries have a better than 1 in 5 chance to win money and 13 can still win the pool as the #3, #4, #5, and #6 ranked teams are still alive.

Hawkeye is tied for 10th (87) but can't win the pool while Jota is tied for 18th (82) and can still be champ.  Flying Elvi is tied for 16th (83) but is eliminated while Sebastian is tied for 34th (76) and can still win 2nd place.

One Step Forward, One Step on Back (8/7)

KAISER HOSPITAL, DOWNEY, CA - Like the #1 USA, #4 1D-England has had trouble scoring, barely beating #53 Haiti and #13 Denmark by 1-0 scores.  An outburst against China PR gave fans hope, but once again ENG struggled, not scoring in 120 minutes vs #40 2B-Nigeria.  NGA at one point outshot ENG 6-0 but NGA also had to settle for their 3rd 0-0 match.  Despite being a player up for 33 minutes due to a bonehead stomp by ENG's Lauren James on a downed NGA's player back that VAR correctly notified the ref "nope, that's a definite red, not yellow", NGA couldn't find the game-winner.  In penalties, 3 of the first 4 players missed (1 ENG, 2 NGA) before ENG nailed the last three, downing NGA 4-2.

Talk about being the focal point of the game, VAR intervened on a judgement call in the box and prodded the ref to change her call in the 31', negating the foul and penalty kick.  It didn't seem like a suggestion, but an order from up high.  Not clear and obvious and too bad the VAR officials wanted their 15 minutes of fame.

Meanwhile, co-host 1B-Australia weathered an early 2D-Denmark attack and got a goal in each half to advance to the quarters, 2-0.  Sam Kerr entered this WWC for the first time in the 80' after the brouhaha of her injury status at the start of the first match.  Wore my 2008 home AUS jersey when the cartoon kangaroo was in the logo.

46 had ENG making the quarters and 32 AUS and 27 got both while Rutin4Putin missed both.  Six R16 matches in, ten have gotten 5 of 6 teams and four only got 2 of 6.  Kds911-2 leads with 87 points with More$ second with 86.  Lavelle Lover and Vlatko Better Win are tied for 3rd (85).  Just 4 entries were eliminated leaving 28 alive and just one can't win the pool, leaving 16 with a chance to win the pool.  Kds911-2 has the best chance at 1st (15.6%) and money (59.8%).  Hawkeye is tied for 10th but can't win the pool while GenX99er is 26th but can still win it.  Sieger is tied for 13th (80) but is eliminated while Sebastian is tied for 34th and can still finish 2nd.  Tiny Destroyer is last with 53 pts (but can get up to 72 pts).

Unforced Errors (8/6)

HOME, CA - Half the quarterfinal field is set and it will be without '95 champion Norway, 2-time champion ('03 and '07) champion Germany, and now, without 4-time champion ('91, '99, '15, and '19) 2E-USA who were ousted 5-4 in the penalty kick shootout to 1G-Sweden.  Only '11 champ 1C-Japan is still alive.  There was no switch to turn on as USA went the last 238 minutes without a goal and missed four penalties (3 in the PSO).  They played much better against #3 SWE and lost in the most bizarre way, a goal line technology on the last kick indicating the entire ball crossed the line by a hair, giving SWE the win.

For me, tie goes to the runner so even if you can't see the hair between the ball and line, I'm good calling it a goal. USA outshot SWE 21-8 but couldn't get it past GK Zecira Musovic, who made 11 saves but ironically, none in the 7-round penalty shootout, because the U.S. completely missed the goal in 3 of their last 4 kicks.  Bizarre.  

Who didn't miss for the U.S.?  Alyssa Naeher who had one save and scored one goal in the PSO.  The bright spot for the Americans is the defense as they limited SWE to just 3 CKs (SWE had 4 goals off corners) but geez, why is a SWE free kick near the mid-field circle so much more dangerous and nerve-wrecking than a Megan Rapinoe corner kick or free kick outside the box.  Poor set piece deliveries and skying high a penalty kick will be the last moments of her stellar WWC career.  

An entertaining first half with saves galore saw 1E-Netherlands get two fortunate goals, one off a rebound and one that went through the GK's hands to make the 2-0 win more comfortable than it should be.  This was the first time 2G-South Africa didn't take the lead (or score) but tried in having more shots (14-12) and shots on goal (7-5) with just 27% possession.  RSA's Thembi Kgatlana had 5 of her 7 shots saved by NED's GK.

Of course, by not winning their group, the SWEvUSA was a 2 am PDT kickoff vs a 7 pm kickoff (NEDvRSA).  And of course, this was the one game the past two days going to extra time, making it a 3-hour game.  Wore my red/white/blue 2014 USA away jersey while casting to my brand new 3-laser short throw projector upstairs (had to move down to my OLED since my son was sleeping upstairs.

34 had SWE and 9 had NED making the quarters but 46 lost USA (including 26 who pegged them as champions).  43 went 1-1 with 4 going 0-2.  No change at the top with Kds911-2 in first (77 pts) and More$ is second (76).  Tiny Destroyer still in last (48).

Finally, I have the possibilities table.   With 11 matches left, just 15 entries have been eliminated, leaving 32 vying for one to the top 4 prize spots.  We don't have enough entries to do a Bonus but should be an interesting finish.  17 can still win first, despite USA (picked by 26), GER (6), and BRA (1) out.  ENG (5), ESP (5), FRA (2), and SWE (2) are still in it.  Leader Kds911-2 has the best chance to win the pool (18.5%) and win money (52.5%).  Of those who can't win the pool, 3am Down Under (22nd-Tied, 69) has the best chance to win money (12.6%).  Flying Elvi is tied for 10th (73) but can't win the pool while GenX99er is tied for 28th but can still be champion.  Panama Red and The Ghost of Mia Hamm each have 67 pts (25th-T) but are eliminated while, ironically, Rapinoe's Last Stand is tied for 39th (62) but can still finish 2nd.

Is it Possible?

Yeah, USA... That was highly improbable.  But what about winning money in the pool?  There are 4 spots up for grabs (no Bonus) for the $470 pot.  Just 15 entries have been eliminated as 32 can still win something.  Despite the top two choices, USA and GER eliminated, three teams (ESP, ENG, SWE) are still alive to win the title which means 17 entries can still win the pool.

There is now a tab above for "Possibilities" and you can see what percent of the 2,048 possible outcomes you can win something.  Kds911-2 (1st, 77 pts) has the best chance to win the pool (18.5%) and money (52.5%).

Trying different ways to speed up Excel but didn't quite work out, thus, this is the debut of the Possibilities table (usually, it's after the Round of 16 when 32,768 possible outcomes are run).