Issue 1.0.1 "Le Moment de Briller" (5/27)

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Monday, May 27, 2019

     WILL EQUAL PAY LAWSUIT DISTRACT #1 USWMT FROM 4TH TITLE?
Equal opportunity exists, with the women taking center stage; 2nd HWCI Women's WC Pool deadline is Friday 6/7 Noon PDT

FREMONT, CA (smt) -- On International Women's Day (March 8), the 28 U.S. women's national team (USWMT) players sued the U.S. Soccer Federation (USSF) for gender-based discrimination in an attempt to level the playing field with their USMNT brethren.  Considering their success as 3-time and defending World Cup champions vs the USMNT who failed to qualify for the last World Cup, it's odd the USSF continues to downplay the USWMT and pick this fight rather than at least offering significant merit-based bonuses.  But at least some sponsors are correcting their ways, with LUNA Bar and Adidas now giving equal bonuses to both teams.  At least the U.S. women will play in the WWC as Ballon d'Or winner Ada Hegerberg will sit out the WWC in protest (since '17) over lack of respect for female players in Norway. 

Will this be a distraction to the #1 ranked team in the world?  Will host France (ranked #4) do what their men's team did when they last hosted the WC ('98), win the Cup?  Will USA coach Jill Ellis coach correctly from the start instead of experimenting (remember those 0-0 draws at halftime?) and waiting for the fans to cause the course-correction like in '15 (maybe not, as 273-cap Carli Lloyd is not happy being on the bench)?  Will #7-Japan bounce back from their shellacking in the final in '15?  Will English-speaking countries of #3-England, #5-Canada, and #6-Australia make a splash finally?  Will current Olympic champion #2-Germany win their 3rd WC to equal the U.S.?

Well-earned title for both Spain and Joseph D

NED playing down a man, who is NED's leader to compose the team after the goal?  All NED is doing is holding their hands up in frustration.  Poor Torres pulls his hamstring running down the field.  One last header in the box doesn't produce anything and the whistle blows!  Spain are champs!   They are the 8th different champion.  They outplayed their opponent in all 7 matches (including the 1-0 loss to SUI) and won their 4th straight 1-0 match (all goals after the 1st half).  Incredible.  Only 8 goals scored in the 7 matches.  Incredible.  NED's third final wasn't a charm, and they will have to wait another four years.  An ugly game that could've ended uglier in PKs, the better team won.

As for the pool, here are your winners (like Spain, Joseph D was the leader after every round and held on for victory):

1st ($310):      Forza Pazza (Joseph D)

2nd ($160):      Corner Kick Kid (Albert H)

3rd ($100):      Dime 23 (Joseph T)

Tied-4th ($30):  Soccerbix (Fernando B)

Tied-4th ($30):  Former MLS Writer (Damian C)

Bonus ($40):     Big Tex (Stephen R) 

121':  ESP picked up the match's 14th card.

Here we go..

La Furir Roja vs the Orangje!  No longer quite the Flying Dutchmen of old, the Netherlands have shown great consistency and have won every World Cup qualifier and World Cup match (6-0-0) (and unbeaten in their last 25) leading up to today.  Spain (5-0-1) was riding a 35-match unbeaten streak before the USA got to them last year but then ran off 10 more matches before being upset by the Swiss in the first group stage match.  While France and Italy fizzled, Spain rebounded and have every match since, including the last three 1-0 and four straight one-goal matches.  Both teams are looking for their first World Cup title in what should be a great match.  I'm watching from home as I have to pack for a trip to Virginia (flying into Baltimore, though) tonight, but I hope Spain wins but will just be glad if Holland, which I traditionally have loved over the past few World Cups, get the trophy.

Will Wesley Sneijder or David Villa come out ahead in the Golden Boot chase?  Will the refs reward or punish Arjen Robben's dives early?

More importantly, however, is the eight people who are fighting for the four money spots and the seven who are hoping for the $40 Bonus.  Good luck to them!

Lots of goals

The five goals scored today on Germany's 3-2 win means that only three can win the Bonus if NED wins tomorrow and only four are alive if ESP wins.  Soccerbix is now going to need Spain to win in PKs after a scoreless match to win 4th or a 1-0 Spain win to tie for 4th with Former MLS Writer.

10 Still Have Chance for Bonus

Note that I inadvertently reversed the order of the tiebreakers for the Bonus1.  It was never the intention to just award the 5th place person a prize.  There is a reason why total goals should be the first tiebreaker and standings placement is 2nd.  That being said, depending who wins, 10 have a chance to win the $40 Bonus.

Check here to see if you are one of 10 with a chance (Hint: It's not me).  While most are in the upper half of the standings, I Hate Vodka is the lowest entry (57th) but wins only if there are 2 or less goals in the two remaining matches and NED wins (he splits if 3 goals).

Correction on Final Two

Some of you aren't paying attention :-)  I inadvertently left off Dime 23 and the points were mixed up if SPAIN beats NED.  Either way, my Zulupalooza is paloozed out.  Corrected below:

If NETHERLANDS beats SPAIN then…
	LB	127
	Forza Pazza	118
	FC Spermicidals	117
	EEChick1400	110
If SPAIN beats NETHERLANDS then…
	Forza Pazza	132
	Corner Kick Kid	123
	Dime 23	122
	Soccerbix	121	(Tie 5.5)
	Former MLS Writer	121	(Tie 6.5)

The Dutch Dream Closer!

Wow, URU made it interesting in the end, scoring in the 90'+2 as the ref rightfully added an additional two minutes beyond the announced three and the Uruguayans had several chances.  It's interesting though, you can tell NED's Robben cause he's the one always trying to go left and you can tell NED's Sneijder because he always has both hands up calling for the ball.

Fourteen picked NED (no one had URU) which allowed Baba and LB (both 2nd-Tied, 104 pts) to charge up the standings with the latter the one having NED as his champ.  FC Spermacidals (4th, 103) also has NED as his champ.  The last NED champ pick that has a chance to win money is Zulupalooza (I don't know how I'm still alive) who moved from 30th-T to 13th-T (95) and the last of 11 still alive to win money. 

Forza Pazza remains in first (109) holding a five-point lead.  He's in every possible outcome but if he loses the tiebreaker if NED beats GER in the final, he will finish 5th and out of the money.  LB will win outright if NED wins the title while Forza Pazza will win outright if ESP beats NED and will battle Number 10 via tiebreaker if GER beats NED.

If NETHERLANDS beats GERMANY then…
	LB	118
	FC Spermicidals	117
	Zulupalooza	109	(Tie: 5.5)
	Forza Pazza	109	(Tie: 6.5)
	Number 10	109	(Tie: 8.0)
If GERMANY beats NETHERLANDS then…
	Forza Pazza	109	(Tie: 6.5)
	Number 10	109	(Tie: 8.0)
	Baba	104	(Tie: 5.5)
	LB	104	(Tie: 8.0)
If NETHERLANDS beats SPAIN then…
	LB	127
	Forza Pazza	118
	FC Spermicidals	117
	EEChick1400	110
If SPAIN beats NETHERLANDS then…
	Forza Pazza	127
	Corner Kick Kid	118
	Former MLS Writer	117
	Soccerbix	110

You may still win money! Probably not...

Details of the Bonus Prize are up.  It's only $40 and it's only for those entries who won't finish in the money.  See if you're still alive.  Note that final standings placement will matter, so if you're Coin Tossed, that's just an allusion you're still alive (it just means you could pick the correct Winningest Group).  After the semifinals, I'll factor in the possible final placements and we'll see who is really alive.  Good luck!

The Final Four Possibilities!

Forza Pazza has a chance for at least 3rd in all 8 remaining outcomes.  The bad news is that if NED beats GER in the final and the total goals in 3rd+Final is 5 or less or 8 or more, he goes home with nothing.  Also, despite his champ BRA gone, Number 10 still has a chance to win first in 3 possible outcomes.  The bad news is that in all three he is tied with Forza Pazza so no guarantees.  My Zulupalooza still has a chance for 3rd in one outcome but that same outcome I could lose the tiebreaker and finish 5th and out of the money.

See below or this link for all possible outcomes (note: this is manually written, so hopefully I didn't mistype anything):

If NETHERLANDS beats GERMANY then…

El Chileno Still Alive Thanks to URU

Before the Macross Frontier concert (featuring Megumi Nakajima and May'n and awesome secret guest Yoko Kanno), I watching live on my Droid Incredible the Verizon VCast ESPN broadcast of the URU-GHA match in the Nokia Theatre.  Drew a little crowd and "how are you doing that" comments.  But the concert, delayed by 20 minutes, started right after the 1st overtime period tied at 1 (I'm almost glad the USA didn't make it because then I would have to miss the match for this concert).  After the truly amazing, most awesome concert ever, I tried viewing the video highlights of the match.  But although you can watch live ESPN TV, the highlights are extremely delayed (only had the NED-BRA highlights).  Frustrated, I drove home.  Turned on the DVR.

The most amazing 120th and last minute of the URU-GHA match, the very last free kick of the match.  Wow.  Thank goodness I didn't hear or read about it.  The ball bouncing everywhere in the URU goal box with GHA getting three point blank shots, one saved, one blocked, and one saved by a deliberate handball by Suarez.  Desperately deliberate.  If Suarez lets the ball go in, Ghana wins 2-1 and the game is over right then and there. So goal-scorer Suarez sacrificed himself... he was red-carded and out of the possible PK round and possible semifinal round (at least; maybe so deliberate FIFA would kick him out of the Final as well?).   So it seemed Africa would finally get a team in the semifinals.  Asamoah Gyan, who had already scored 2 PKs in the WC already, lined up.  But like in Japan's only PK miss, he hit it hard but it hit the crossbar, silencing the Vuvuzelas.  The URU GK saved two PKs (one on a weird soft one step take by the captain, easily saved) and Sebastian Abreau sealed it with a cheeky soft kick to win the PK shootout 4-2.  So heartbreaking for Ghana.   But the match did feature two mind-bending goals by GHA and URU where the GKs guessed wrong as the ball swerved from right-to-left-right (or vice versa).  Crazy ball.

El Chileno was the only one to pick URU so he is still alive and moves from 4th-Tied to 3rd but more importantly, from 9 points down to just two (93).  Forza Pazza and EEChick1400 were shut out and remain at 95 and 94 pts, respectively.  With NED's win, Baba moved from 13th-T to 4th and FC Spermacidals (1 of 6 to pick NED to win it all) moved from 20th-T to 5th-T.  Samersig (42nd-T, 75), who was already eliminated, missed a chance for a moral victory by picking GHA in the semis.  There are just 23 alive and 10 can win 1st. 

Forza Pazza still has the best chance with a 11 in 32 (34.4%) chance for 1st and 65.6% for money.  EEChick1400, El Chileno, Lionelmessi (5th-T, 87), Number 10 (7th-T, 86), Ghost of Ireland (28th, 80), and Flying Elvi (32nd-T, 78) had BRA as their champ but are still alive.  They'll need more upsets to help them out (e.g. ESP losing).  Not so lucky was Doughboy who is tied for 13th (83) and now elimianted.

EEChick1400 Catching Up to Forza Pazza

The eight R16 matches are done and when the dust settled, EEChick1400 has cut Forza Pazza's (95) six-point lead down to one thanks to he being one of six to correctly pick Paraguay's quarterfinal march.  All six went 2-0 with only I Hate Vodka Alot (64th-Tied, 61) and Hobbes (25th-T, 78) not picking Spain.  Hobbes has the distinction along with AnybodyButEngland (who had POR & ESP in his quarters) (25th-T) to go from a chance for 1st to start the day to eliminated. 

There are now only 12 who could win the $310 first-place prize led by Forza Pazza at 37.5% (3 in 8) and Number 10 (4th-T, 86) at 21.9%.  Forza Pazza also has a 65.6% chance to win something with EEChick1400 at 59.4%.  A total of 34 entries (just over half) still have a chance to win money, which is quite amazing to me.  LB and Serrano still have a chance for 1st despite being tied for 45th (74) and Eek and Reckin Crew still have a chance for money (3rd) despite being tied for 53rd (71).  Coin Tossed remains in last with 38 pts and is one of three (I Hate Vodka Alot and Da Fermo (66th, 60)) to only get 2 of the 8 quarterfinalists while five got six of eight (Forza Pazza, EEChick1400, El Chileno (4th-T), Number 10, and Stewart W (8th-T, 83)).

So there are 4 South American teams, 3 European teams, and one African team left.  The Uruguay-Ghana is the least sexy match but one of those teams will be in the semis. 

Finally!  There is a break in the schedule.  After 19 straight days of matches, there is now a 2-day break.  I don't understand how Ghana (along with the U.S.) only had two full days rest for the R16 but now have five full days rest for the quarters.  Seems unbalanced somewhere.  I do wish they had a 2-day break after the group stage.  It would give me a chance for a breather!

Bye-Bye Me

Poor Chile.  The only R16 team to not score thus far.  

Well, 52 of 67 entries picked both NED and BRA today.  For some reason, my main entry (Futbol Fabone Four (51st-Tied, 66 pts) was not one of them.  As such, I am eliminated.  I still have slim hopes for my last entry, Zulupalooza (49th-T) which is only a point ahead of my eliminated pick.  60 picked NED and 58 picked BRA.  I Hate Vodka Alot (64th-T, 56) was the only who picked Slovakia and El Ruso (25th-T, 73) the only one to pick Chile.  Almost.

As usual, Coin Tossed (33) was the only one to go 0-2 today but she is not the only one to get only 1 of 6 Quarterfinalists correct... I Hate Vodka Alot and Da Fermo (66th, 55) also have picked just one thus far.  If Holland wins it all (I'll be rooting for them since that is what I picked for Zulupalooza), I am waiting for Warner L (Da Fermo) to complain about how he picked the correct champion and was left out of the money.  He finished 7th last time despite picking Italy to win it all.  If all you had to do was pick the correct champ, then why should I let you guys pick the other 62 matches??

LB and Serrano, tied for 45th (69), both still have a chance to win first.  Reckin Crew now holds the distinction for still having a chance while being placed the lowest:  51st-T (66).  Lionelmessi can't win first despite being in 3rd (82).  How frustrating must that me (probably not as much as being eliminated).  Neither can Corner Kick Kid (4th-T, 81) and Dime 23 (6th, 80).  I'm surprised there are still more than half the entries (39 of 67) are still alive for money and 16 still have a chance for 1st.

Forza Pazza (90) still has his six-point lead and has a 32.8% to win 1st and 59.8% to win money.  He is one of two (El Chileno (4th-T)) to pick 5 of the 6 quarterfinalists.  The top 11 entries have picked either Spain or Brazil.

Pool Update

Germany's win eliminated six more entries but more importantly, now only 20 can win 1st (was 29).  One of those eliminated was Big Tex, who despite being for 8th place (68 pts), can't win money.  England doomed him.  Argentina's win eliminated just one person and only 18 can win 1st. 

Thirty-three went 2-0 while four went 0-2.  All five who lost their champ (1 USA, 1 ITA, 3 ENG) have been eliminated.  Forza Pazza (80) maintains his six-point lead while I R Winner! Part 2 (67) falls from a tie for 5th to 14th and can't finish higher than 3rd.  Forza Pazza now has a 63.4% chance to win money and 36.9% chance to win 1st.  Hobbes (8th-T), Number 10 (16th-T, 66), and El Chileno (4th-T, 71) all have a 11-14% chance to win 1st.  2nd place EEChick1400 (74) has a 44.2% chance for money.  Remember when there were 29 within 10 points of first place?  Now there are only 6.

At the bottom, Krispy Kicker is the only one who picked GER as his champ and thus, still has a chance for 3rd despite being tied for 63rd place (51).  I Hate Vodka Alot is also tied for 63rd and can still win 4th (Sam's only entry that is still alive -- Vodka cursed him again!).  Coin Tossed remains forever in last with 33 pts but normal picks Princessa and Da Fermo are tied for 65th with 50.

Serrano and LB are tied for 48th with 59 pts but both can win 1st!

Refs Having a Bad Day

Missed offsides leads to ARG having a 2-0 lead at the half.

Meanwhile, as of yesterday, Forza Pazza has a 23.1% chance of winning the first place prize of $310 and a 44.9% chance to win money.  But he doesn't have the best odds.  EEChick1400 has a 63.8% chance to win money.  You can now click on the "Possibilities" tab and see how much of a chance you have (if you weren't one of the 12 eliminated).  This will be updated tonight to include the GER and MEX/ARG wins.

I'm Sorry to Inform You...

... that 12 entries are eliminated from the top 4 spots.  That still leaves 55 in contention, even I Love Vodka's pick and he had USA winning it all.  Check out that Standings to see if you're still alive and whether you can finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

BTW, behind so I'm still watching the GER-ENG match (62').  I can't believe they missed that goal (that hit the crossbar and hit at least 3 feet inside the goal)... if FIFA doesn't go to goal line technology for big events (or at least another two sideline officials specifically at the end line), all the goodwill we earned will be lost as FIFA will just be a laughingstock because there is no way the two sideline (who are looking for offsides) can tell from their angle if it was a goal or not.

HWCI.com down but I'm still behind anyway

Hopefully it's just a midnight thing and hopefully HWCI.com will be back up in the morning.  Standings are posted below in the meantime.  I had to stop the 32,000+ scenario runs so it's like you are all still in it (even though not all of you are).  Running the 8,000+ scenario case (after today's 2 matches) right now which still takes hours.  In the meantime, only four correctly picked URU (Forza Pazza, El Ruso, El Chileno (7th-Tied, 61), Stewart W (12th-T, 58)) and only Samersig (going from 54th-T to 29th-T, 55) pegged GHA.  So Forza Pazza (70) actually increased his lead from one to six points and El Ruso moved from 10th-T to 3rd-T.  Note that Forza Pazza (Joseph D) was also first after the Round of 16 last time (2006) (maybe it's about goalkeeper saves??) and didn't finish in the money.  Maybe it'll be different this time.

So I Hate Vodka (18th-T, 57) lost his USA champ and two others lost USA in the final.  We thank you for your patriotism and your ten bucks.  BUT, they might not be eliminated yet.  Boy, I need a faster computer.

Here are the current standings:

HOME	BLOG	RESULTS		FORUM
	DATE OF STANDINGS:	26-Jun-10
	RND1- # NO TIE/TIED:		34/14							1ST-	$310	4TH-	$60
	MATCHES PLAYED:	50 of 63	48	(16)	2	0	0	0		2ND-	$160	BNS-	$40
	PICKS PER ROUND:		48	16	8	4	2	1	79	3RD-	$100	Total Goals: TBD
	POINTS PER PICK:		1	3	5	7	9	14
	POINTS PER ROUND:		48	48	40	28	18	14	196		Pred
Rnk	NAME	Correct->	RND1	ADV	R16	QTR	SEMI	FINAL		PTS	Chmp	TIE	WIN GRP
1	Forza Pazza	Pick	26	13	1	0	0	0		70	ESP	6.5	D4H4
2	EEChick1400	Pick	25	13	0	0	0	0		64	BRA	7.5	G4
3	Big Tex	Pick	24	13	0	0	0	0		63	ESP	6.0	C4H4
	El Ruso	Pick	22	12	1	0	0	0		63	ARG	8.5	B4

We Wait

For my update that is.  Standings are updated but the elimination macro I'm using is running very, very , very slowly.  Maybe I need a new laptop.  Still running from late last night.  So all 67 still have hope until that finishes!

Also, Sam's newsletter have all been converted to HTML so the Pando! or Gordo? link now has the latest.

Standings updated

Analysis won't come til late tonight or even tomorrow.. still stuck at work.  But Forza Pazza still leads by one.

Narrowing, but Forza Pazza maintains one point lead

The surprising Japan win was picked by just 10 and their advancement to the Round of 16 was picked by just four.  Who knew when they had that losing streak coming in and failed to secure a match after the WC against Mozambique that the Samurai Blue would join South Korea as members of the elite 16.  Who knew JPN were free kick specialists?  Two goals off FKs.  In fact the only other FK goal (I believe) was KOR's.  JPN & KOR linked again.  The Dutch became the second team to sweep (9 pts) with BRA and CHI trying to do the same tomorrow.  59 picked Holland to win their game and 64 had them making the Round of 16.


Forza Pazza remains in first with 51pts, but EEChick1400 (50), and Big Tex (49) are close behind.  Eros 1 and Eros 2 (as you can guess, the same person and our defending champ) picked both matches and got both teams to move from a tie for 42nd to a tie for 12th (45).  El Ruso was the only other one to get both R16 teams and moved from 26th-T to 12th-T.  A total of 9 got both late matches correct.  Source (12th-T) had a topsy-turvy day missing both PAR & SVK but getting both JPN & NED.

For the day, 12 went 2-1 while 7 went 0-3.  Three picked 3 of the 4 R16 teams while four only got one correct and Coin Tossed (Last, 24) picked none.  As for the top picks, Forza Pazza, Lionelmessi, and El Oso (12th-T) have gotten 24 of 32 games correct while six have picked 9 of 12 R16 teams (not including BRA).

Italy is our biggest bust so far.  They were one of 3 teams (ESP and ARG are the other two) where everyone picked them to advance. Nine had them in the Semis, five in the Final, and Ram58 (55th-T, 39) picked them as champion.  It seems hopeless for him, but we won't know for sure until after tomorrow's matches.  That is when we will find out which of the 67 entries have no chance of finishing in the top 4.

Forza Pazza still in 1st, but others are catching up

Forza Pazza went 3-1 and got 3 of 4 teams who advanced to the Round of 16 to stay in first with 44 points but there are now 49 (vs 43) people within 10 points.  Twenty got all 4 matches correct and 15 got all 4 Round of 16 teams (including Krispy Kicker who blasted out of last place to 66th with 27 pts).  Princesa (moved from 54th-tied to 22nd-tied, 36 pts), Ish (32nd-T to 12th-T, 38), Rivas (21st-T to 9th-T, 39), and Lionelmessi (10th-T to 4th, 41) were perfect today.  Big Tex (42) fell to 3rd with EEChick1400 moving to 2nd (43) thanks to getting all 4 matches correct.

On the flip side, six went 2-2 and Coin Tossed (regained last with 22 pts) only got 1 of 4 teams.  Big Tex and Edu (64th-T, 30) missed both Germany's and Australia's wins today.  Since the 3rd set of games started yesterday, Chi-Town Mikey's (14th-T to 56th-T) and Desert17 (14th-T to 62nd-T) have been in a massive freefall.

Sixty-five picked ENG, 63 picked USA, 64 picked GER, and 23 picked AUS to win their matches today.  On the Round of 16 side, 66 had GER, 65 had ENG, 61 had USA, and only 19 had GHA.  While a lot were predicting the USA would get revenge against GER (2002 Qtrfinals) in the Round of 16, instead the USA will try to avenge their 2006 RR loss to GHA.  Amazing how things work out.


ALG went goalless and HON is the only other country yet to score.