Issue #4.1.3 "One Way Out" (After 2 of 3 Matches)

 Archive

Monday, November 28, 2022  

TWENTY-ONE TEAMS KNOW WHAT TO DO TO MAKE R16
Four are tied for 1st with 20 points but next four days can earn 16 points each day

MISTLETOE WRAPPING IN CYPRESS, CA (smt) -- Of the 21 teams who know what they need to do to guarantee themselves in the Round of 16, only the B3-USA has one way out - win or be eliminated.  No backing their way in like in 2002 or 2014.  No slim chance if they didn't win vs Algeria in 2010.  26 of 27 eligible teams can make the Round of 16 (joining D1-France, G1-Brazil, and H1-Portugal) with some help if necessary.  USA gets no help.  No need to watch the D1-England-D4-Wales score.  Doesn't matter.  Win and in.

Only 2 teams have been eliminated (host A1-Qatar and F2-Canada) and just three have qualified leaving an unusually high 27 teams still alive fighting for 13 spots.  E3-Germany has the most difficult guarantee to make the Round of 16, and that is beating E2-Costa Rica by 8 or more goals... considering E1-Spain beat CRC 7-0, maybe possible (though CRC shocked E4-Japan 1-0)?  Otherwise it's win and hope for a good result from JPNvsESP.  WAL and C3-Mexico are in if they win their matches by 4 or more goals.  ENG can lose by 3 goals and still qualify.  All 6 teams that do not control their destiny still need to win for any chance of making the R16. 

Errors Lead to 1-0 Shutouts (7/25)

DROPPED MY 5-YEAR OLD IPAD AIR 2, CA -- With no Extra Time and matches going straight to penalty kick shootout, it's no wonder teams were tentative and both matches had scoreless first halves.  

Host 1A-Orlando City SC scored off a defensive miscue in the 60' to win 1-0 over the 3C-Impact de Montreal to advance to the Quarterfinals.  ORL played like the favorite they were as Thierry Henry's team lacked any urgency most of the match.  The line judge played a role nullifying an ORL goal by waving his flag.  If  the ref did what he was supposed to, in this photo-finish offsides, and waited to waive his flag after the goal or kept his flag down, it could've been reviewed by VAR.  ORL has a tough match ahead of them as they will face the winner of 2B-Seattle and 2F-LAFC, but ORL will have two extra days rest.

2A-Philadelphia Union scored off a NE midfield misplay at midfield in the 63' to win 1-0 over the 2C-New England Revolution to advance to the Quarterfinals.  Both Group A teams beat Group C teams.  1C-Toronto FC should then feel weary of their match against Group A 3A-New York City FC.

NE head coach Bruce Arena was red-carded after the match.  My estimates for Disciplinary Points only include match statistics since subsequent discipline or nullifying cards can come 1-2 days later and it's still not clear (nor any official total) how the DP is recalculated.  For instance, 4A-Inter Miami FC's Juan Agudelo's first yellow card was rescinded two days later, but he got a second card for a red card, so do the 7 points go down to 3, because the red card is still there.  Does any added supplemental mean 8 points so a card 1-2 days later means 8 points instead of 3 if it happened in the match?  Does a fine for simulation mean 8 points?  We probably won't get a tally unless it comes into play as a tiebreaker.

Four had ORL and 8 had PHI in the Quarterfinals.  Six Foot Box and Deutschland = Koenig got both right and are now just 3 points behind leader Bobby Cee Racer (54 pts).   Four got none right but Super League is still in last with 39 pts.

There was a small error in my 32K simulation but in correcting it for the 8K simulation, all entries are still alive.  But just 8 now remain who can win the pool.  Bobby Cee Racer is still the overwhelming favorite to win the pool (65.8%) and prizes (93.8%).  Six Foot Box and Deutschland = Koenig have a 48.2% and 43.9% of winning a prize with the latter with a 16.9% to win the pool.  Super League still has an 18 of 8192 chance of finishing 3rd.

Issue 6.2.1 "Black and Blue" (After Round of 16)

Archive

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

TOP TEAMS BRUISED AND BATTERED, BUT ALL FAVORITES ADVANCE
Kds911 is first while 13 can still win Pool

MANHATTAN BEACH, CA (smt) -- All 6 group winners plus 2F-Sweden and 2A-Norway won giving the Quarterfinals a near unanimous European feel.  1B-Germany and 1D-England each won 3-0 in physical matches while 1A-France (after extra time), 1F-United States, and 1E-Netherlands held on to 2-1 wins.  NOR routed 2C-Australia in the penalty shootout 4-1 after a 1-1 tie after extra time and 1C-Italy survived a suddenly offensive-minded 3B-China PR team 2-0 and SWE got lucky as 2E-Canada missed a game-tying PK to prevail 1-0.  Cup favorites were woman-handled as GER was fouled 15 times, ENG 11, FRA 23, and the Americans 17 times.  GER was the only one to fight back fouling 3A-Nigeria 16 times.  GER will have two extra days rest on opponent SWE though.

3E-Cameroon displayed an all new look of unsportswomanlike conduct delaying kickoffs in protest, pushing referees, spitting and elbowing players, and having a coach that tolerated the behavior.  2B-Spain were lucky not to get more yellow cards including a blatant chokehold on Megan Rapinoe.  But the fact these top teams survived proves their resiliency that hopefully will take them far.  GER and NOR seem to be on the upswing while ENG, FRA, and the USA (their last 2 matches) are still trying to find their footing.  ITA, who finished last in their group in the 2017 UEFA Women's EUROs, has been the biggest surprise and gets to play a NED team, although the 2017 UEFA Women's EURO champs, struggled in the second half against 2D-Japan and needed a 90' PK to prevail. 

Issue 5.1.4 "3rd Place Scramble" (End of Group Stage)

Archive

Thursday, June 20, 2019

USA WINS GROUP, 7 TEAMS BATTLED FOR LAST 2 R16 SPOTS
Fotografo il Miglore and Kds911 are Tied for 1st; 40 Still Alive and 36 Can Win Pool

ATLANTA, GA (smt) -- F1-United States comfortably beat F4-Sweden 2-0 to win Group F.  E1-Netherlands, B1-Germany, and D1-England also won handily to win their Groups.  A1-France needed a couple of VAR reviews to beat A4-Nigeria.  All five teams picked up the max 9 points.  C3-Brazil beat C2-Italy to tie them along with C1-Australia with 6 points got beat by goal differential to only get 3rd while ITA took 1st and AUS 2nd.  B2-China PR and B3-Spain advanced by tying teach other (ESP taking 2nd) while A3-Norway helped themselves finish 2nd with a win.  Despite losing, E1-Canada and SWE took 2nd in their groups. 

But the biggest battle was for 3rd.  After CHN and BRA claimed spots, there were just two spots left.  Seven teams were trying to get in.  NGA lost their chance to clinch (turned out they would have) then and there with FRA getting the late PK retake and having to wait.  D2-Scotland was in having built up a 3-0 lead with 16 minutes to go but D3-Argentina stormed back to tie, keeping ARG's slim hopes alive and killing SCO's.  But with a tie doing neither E2-Cameroon or E3-New Zealand any good, CMR broke out in the 90'+5 to seal a spot in the R16 and knocking ARG out of contention and essentially eliminating F4-Thailand (they would need a 15-goal win).  F3-Chile needed a 3-goal win over THA and led 2-0 before getting PK opportunity in the 83' but the PK blast went off the crossbar crushing CHI's hopes and putting NGA into the R16.   

Qualification

Here's a quick summary of how the 16 teams qualified and how teams #17 to #24 ranked.

  Qualification (x-Advance, a-Group Winner, b-Group Runner Up, c-3rd place, z-Elim):  

x-FRA (16-CHN W), x-GER (16-CHN W)... 

x-ITA (18-W), x-ENG (19-W)... 

x-NED (22-W), x-CAN (21-W)...  

x-SWE (24-W), x-USA (23-W), x-JPN (23-SWE W & 24-USA W)... 

a-GER (25-W), b-ESP (26-D), c-CHN (26-D), z-RSA (25-L)... 

a-FRA (23-W), b-NOR (24-W), z-KOR (24-L)... 

a-ITA (GD), b-AUS (29-W & GD), c-BRA (30-W), z-JAM (29-L)... 

a-ENG (31-W), b-JPN (32-ARG D), z-SCO (32-D)... 

a-NED (33-W), b-CAN (33-L), c-CMR (34-W), z-NZL (34-L), z-ARG (34-CMR W)... 

a-USA (35-W), b-SWE (35-L), c-NGA (36-CHI GD), z-CHI (GD), z-THA (36-L) ...

   Standings (17-24) W-L-D PTS (GD GF) [Fair Play]: 

17 CHI 1-2-0  3 ( -3  2) [ -5]
18 ARG 0-1-2  2 ( -1  3) [ -3]
19 SCO 0-2-1  1 ( -2  5) [ -6]
20 NZL 0-3-0  0 ( -4  1) [ -1]
21 KOR 0-3-0  0 ( -7  1) [ -7]
22 RSA 0-3-0  0 ( -7  1) [ -9]
23 JAM 0-3-0  0 (-11  1) [ -4]
24 THA 0-3-0  0 (-19  1) [ -5]

Twenty-Two Shots (6/17)

Each match saw one team take at least 22 shots but only two of the four won today.  B1-Germany got tired of 1-0 wins and came out swinging shooting 23 times and scoring four times in a 4-0 win over B4-South Africa to clinch Group B with 9 points.  In an interesting match where the winner would be the loser, only a loss would keep B3-Spain, holding 2nd place, from likely facing the F1-United States in the Round of 16 and yet they came out shooting 24 times with 9 shots on goal but was held to a scoreless draw by B2-China PR, who had just one shot and none on goal.  By finishing 3rd, CHN will likely play C2-Italy, C3-Brazil, C4-Australia, D1-England, or D4-Japan, all preferable over facing a hot USA team.

Issue 4.1.3 "Nine Teams In" (After 2nd Matches)

Archive

Sunday, June 16, 2019

USA CRUISES AND JOIN 8 OTHER TEAMS IN ROUND OF 16
Fotografo il Migliore and Pazzo Americano Tied for 1st

ALHAMBRA, CA (smt) -- The top teams are starting to warm up as 5 of the 6 top Group seeds have already advanced to the Round of 16.  Only C1-Australia, which had to rally from a 2-0 deficit to beat C3-Brazil, has yet to clinch.  C2-Italy (routing C4-Jamaica 5-0), D4-Japan, E4-Netherlands, and F4-Sweden also advanced with victories.  B1-Germany and D1-England squeaked by with 1-0 wins (Germany's second) while A1-France broke a 1-1 tie to win.  CONCACAF teams E1-Canada and F1-USA (who changed 7 starters) pitched shutouts and also did not allow a shot on goal by the opponent, the first two such events of the tourney.  A4-Nigeria surprised A2-Korea Republic 2-0 and B2-China PR's win stopped a six-match winless streak for the Asia Football Confederation (AFC).  F2-Thailand were bombarded with 74 shots over two matches but finally managed to score in stoppage time against SWE setting off an emotional celebration from the team, staff, and fans.

There were no ties in this second round of 12 matches and only one tie overall.  There have also just been one red card (2 cautions) and no direct red cards.  D2-Scotland's loss to JPN was UEFA's first loss against a non-UEFA team.  Six of the 9 UEFA teams have already advanced with A3-Norway and B3-Spain in good shape with three points but SCO will need some help at zero points and a -2 goal differential.  With four 3rd place teams advancing, even THA with zero points and a -17 GD still has a minuscule chance.

Last Day for Group Play

As we head in to the last day of the group stage, 12 teams have punched their ticket to the Round of 16 with 1st/2nd pairs of Canada/China (A), Germany/Norway (B), Japan/Cameroon (C), and USA/Australia (D), third-place qualifiers Netherlands (A, 4pts, 0 Goal Diff) and Switzerland (C, 4pts, 7 GD), Group E winner Brazil, and Colombia (F, 4 pts) reaching the knockout stage.  New Zealand (A), Ivory Coast (B), Ecuador (C), and Nigeria (D) are officially out with third-place Thailand (B, 3pts, -7 GD, 3 GF) chances slim-to-none.

Third-place Sweden (D, 3pts, 0 GD, 4 Goals For) with its 3 ties has to wait to see if they will make it.

Spain (E, 1pt, -1 GD, 1 GF) plays Korea Rep (1 pt, -2 GD, 2 GF) and a tie will knock both of them out while a win by either will get them through.  Will Brazil rest its starters vs Costa Rica (E, 2 pts, 0 GD, 3 GF) to allow the Ticos to steal a spot with a win or a 2-2 or better tie (they could also make it with a 1-1 (further tiebreaker w/SWE if ESP or KOR win or 2nd if ESP-KOR tie) or 0-0 tie if ESP-KOR tie).

Three teams can take Group F but only Colombia has qualified.  England (3pts, 0 GD, 2 GF) and France (3pts, -1 GD, 1GF) only need a tie to advance while Mexico (1pt, -1 GD, 1 GF) need a win vs France.  An England and Mexico/France win would send those two teams through.  An England and France loss (MEX 2nd place) would send SWE through and leave England, France, Costa Rica, Spain, and Korea Rep in the running for the final 2 spots (2nd E and final 3rd place team) since Group F matches will finish before Group E starts.

Fun, fun, fun!

BTW, for my Thai friends, Thailand would make the knockout stage if Spain and Korea Rep tie, Brazil beats Costa Rica, Colombia beats England 7-0 or 9-1 or better, and France beats Mexico.  Not that far-fetched for three of the matches but that Colombia thrashing of England -- highly unlikely.

Avalanche of Points

As we get started for the final matches of the group stage, just a reminder that you will get the advancement to Round of 16 points after each team has played their third and final match.  Thus, you will get the 3 points for Japan after Tuesday's matches and 3 points for Brazil after Wednesday's matches. Each day for the next three days will see at least a minimum of 16 points (1 point per match (4) and 3 points per top 2 finishers in group (4)) awarded.  Also note that with the top four 3rd place finishers still in flux, it's likely the 3 points for 3rd place finishers won't be decided until after Tuesday's or Wednesday's matches.  You can check out how many entries picked which team to advance by looking the Team Distribution table.

With Ivory Coast (0 pts, -11 goal differential) and Ecuador (0, -15) virtually eliminated from Round of 16 consideration, Brazil and Japan already in, and Canada (4), Germany (4), Norway (4), Switzerland (3, +8), Cameroon (3, +5), USA (4), and Colombia (4) virtually in, that leaves 11 teams vying for the remaining Round of 16 spots.  Brazil is the only team that has clinched the group (1E) so the ordering of the other 15 Round of 16 spots is still up for grabs.