Issue #11.2.6 "I'm Here to Win and Walk Away" (After Final)

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Monday, December 19, 2022

[Dailies: 17-18 ]

2022 World Cup Champion	2022 Winningest Region
1978   |   1986   |   2022	UEFA - Europe Union of European Football Associations
ARG - La Albiceleste Asociación del Fútbol Argentino (AFA) Confederación Sudamericana de Fútbol (CONMEBOL)
#3 | C1 | Group C Winners | 4-1-2 | 15 GF-8 GA 6th Final ('30, '78, '86, '90, '14) 3rd Championship C1: Lost #53 Saudi Arabia 1-2 C4: Beat #13 Mexico 2-0 C5: Beat #26 Poland 2-0 R16: Beat #38 2D-Australia 2-1 QF: Beat #8 1A-Netherlands 2-2 (4-3 PSO) SF: Beat #12 2F-Croatia 3-0 F: Beat #4 1D-France 3-3 (4-2 PSO)	UEFA | 8 Teams | 8 Wins |  8-8 Qualified:  1A-NED, 1B-ENG, 2C-POL, 1D-FRA, 2E-ESP, 2F-CRO, 2G-SUI, 1H-POR R16 (5):  49-NED, 53-CRO, 51-ENG, 52-FRA, 56-POR QF (2):  58-CRO, 59-FRA SF (1):  62-FRA F (0): -

INSTANT CLASSIC WITH 5 GOALS BETWEEN 2 SUPERSTARS
Soccerbix is joined by SoccerWife, KevLo, AC in Doha, and Merman in top 5; Free Merman wins Bonus

MANHATTAN BEACH, CA (smt) -- Legendary superstar Lionel Messi scored twice and had a key touch for another goal to help 1C-Argentina win their 3rd World Cup title, outlasting a hat trick from new superstar Kylian Mbappé 3-3 (4-2 in penalty shootout).  Messi was there to win and walk away, playing defense and helping his team in any way.  He wins his first WC after winning his first Copa America last year and says he wants to play a few games as a champion before potentially retiring from the national team.  Messi played in a WC-record 26th match and is the first player to score at least 1 goal in all 4 knockout matches.  But it wasn't easy.

ARG jumped to their sixth straight 2-0 lead (including Messi's 3rd PK) and dominated for 70 minutes (1D-France did not even have a shot until the 67' and made two forward subs in the 41') and it felt like ARG would just cruise to victory since FRA was not putting up any sustained attacks.  But you don't need sustained attacks if you have speed, and when ARG pulled down a FRA player that blew past him in the box, Kylian Mbappé got FRA on the board in the 80' on their first shot on goal.  In the 81', quick one-touch give-and-go passing resulting in their second shot on goal, a Mbappé perfect strike to level the match at 2 apiece. 

In extra time, Messi put in a rebound in the 108' that seemed to finally seal the deal.  But an errant hand blocking a Mbappé shot off a CK gave FRA another PK and Mbappé went the same way to tie it at 3 in the 118'.  In end-to-end action, FRA could've won if not for a kick save (not taken by Mbappé) and ARG could've won if not for an open header mishit (not taken by Messi), both in the 120'+3'.   In the PSO, both Mbappé and Messi scored but ARG GK came up big with a save and ARG hit all 4 PKs to win 4-2.

Issue #10.2.5 "I'm Condemned to Use the Tools of my Enemy to Defeat Them" (Finals Preview & History of Pool)

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Friday, December 16, 2022
2022 FIFA Men's World Cup Final - Lusail Iconic Stadium - Lusail
 

 
 
1978   |   1986
vs.
  
 

 
1998   |   2018

ARG - La Albiceleste
Asociación del Fútbol Argentino (AFA)
Confederación Sudamericana de Fútbol (CONMEBOL)
 

FRA - Les Bleus
Fédération Française de Football (FFF)
Union of European Football Associations (UEFA)

#3 | C1 | Group C Winners | 4-1-1
6th Final ('30, '78, '86, '90, '14)
C1: Lost #53 Saudi Arabia 1-2
C4: Beat #13 Mexico 2-0
C5: Beat #26 Poland 2-0
R16: Beat #38 2D-Australia 2-1
QF: Beat #8 1A-Netherlands 2-2 (4-3 PSO)
SF: Beat #12 2F-Croatia 3-0
 

#4 | D1 | Group D Winners | 5-1-0
4th Finals ('98, '06, '18)
D1: Beat #38 Australia 4-1
D4: Beat #10 Denmark 2-1
D6: Lost #30 Tunisia 0-1
R16: Beat #26 2C-Poland 3-1
QF: Beat #5 1B-England 2-1
SF: Beat #22 1F-Morocco 2-0

 

FAVORITES OUTSMART UNDERDOGS

Which three will join Soccerbix, KevLo and/or SoccerWife in money

CYPRESS, CA (smt) -- Underdogs and Cinderellas were creating havoc in the tournament but then the favorites wised up and played their game, using the tools of their enemy to ultimately defeat them.  1F-Morocco had not had more than 37% possession in any of their five matches but 1D-France allowed MAR to have the ball (55% possession) and while MAR had excelled on counter-attacks in previous matches, this time it was FRA who  picked their spots to apply pressure in the box as deflected shots led to both goals in their 2-0 semifinal win.  1C-Argentina who had jumped to a 2-0 lead in their 5th straight match, did not want to give up goals like they did in the past two matches, and conceded possession to 2G-Croatia (54%), playing CRO's game, and eventually found a back-breaking 3rd goal to win 3-0.  Both MAR (who had defensive injuries which hampered them) and CRO should have been content to play for a 0-0 draw or an opportunistic goal here and there, but FRA and ARG turned the tables and baited them into taking the possession which FRA and ARG capitalized on.

Issue #9.2.4 "Power Doesn't Panic" (After Semifinals)

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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Dailies: 13-14 ]

SOCCER POWERS REMOVE DOUBT
Soccerbix wins the pool! 8 entries still alive for final 4 money spots; 32 can win Bonus

HOME (smt) -- The soccer powers have been threatened all tournament long, with E1-Germany and F1-Belgium exiting in the group stage and knockout round upsets of 1G-Brazil and 2E-Spain.  But power doesn't panic.  1C-Argentina built up their 5th straight 2-0 lead but this time they not only held on to it, but added the back-breaking 3rd goal to squash upstart 2F-Croatia, 3-0.  Julian Alvarez and Lionel Messi were involved in all 3 goals (Alvarez drew PK & Messi converted PK; Messi touch (no official assist) & Alvarez long run for goal; Messi magic dribbling and pass to Alvarez for goal). 

1D-France quickly broke 1F-Morocco's impressive play of never trailing nor allowing an opponent to score in the 5th minute and did something they haven't done yet in the WC, pitch a shutout, winning 2-0.  The two soccer powers will face each other in the Final and will feature two superstars of Paris Saint-Germain - ARG's Messi and FRA's Kylian Mbappé.  Maybe a repeat of the wild 2018 Round of 16 match won by FRA 4-3 on 19-year old Mbappé's brace.

The crowd was very pro-MAR and they have gotten support from a lot of neutrals around the world including Israel, which had a great newspaper cover showing their support.  Interestingly, MAR played more attacking and fun soccer after giving up the goal but could not get the tying goal before FRA added a 2nd in the 79'.  For a team that never had more than 37% possession in any match (and less than 23% in the past two), MAR had 56% possession and took 15 shots (though just 1 on goal - the bicycle kick was tipped by GK but would've hit the left post anyway so not a shot on goal).

With FRA's win, this secured the pool for Soccerbix who leads with 123 points.  It's Soccerbix's 2nd title after winning the inaugural one in 1998 as Le Bix.  12 got both FRA and ARG and 8 of those are the top 8 in the standings (and all 8 have picked ARG as their champion).  Soccerbix has a 16-point cushion over those who have FRA as their champion (2 Goals 1 World Cup, Kona Coast Uno, and Redhat Dave (17th-Tied, 107)) so if FRA wins, the 14 points will not dethrone him.  Those 3, if FRA wins, will knock AC in Doha, Merman, and Unlucky (4th-T, 119) from the money spots.  KevLo and SoccerWife are tied for 2nd (120) but will fall for a tie for 5th if FRA wins (and 1 of those 2 will leave empty-handed).  For the final, 31 have ARG and 9 FRA as their champ (I wonder how many more would pick FRA if they did not have all those injuries prior to the start of the WC).

Issue #8.2.3 "There Will Be Times When the Struggle Seems Impossible" (Semifinal Preview & Bonus Details)

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Monday, December 12, 2022

First Semifinal - Lusail			Second Semifinal - Al Khor
ARG - La Albiceleste Asociación del Fútbol Argentino (AFA)	CRO - Vatreni (Blazers) Hrvatski Nogometni Savez (HNS)		FRA - Les Blues Fédération Française de Football (FFF)	MAR - Ousud Al-atlas (The Atlas Lions) Fédérarion Royale Marocaine de Football (FRMF)
#3 | C1 | Group C Winners | 3-1-1 6th Semifinals ('30, '78, '86, '90, '14) C1: Lost #53 Saudi Arabia 1-2 C4: Beat #13 Mexico 2-0 C5: Beat #26 Poland 2-0 R16: Beat #38 2D-Australia 2-1 QF: Beat #8 1A-Netherlands 2-2 (4-3 PSO)	#12 | F4 | Group F Runners-Up | 1-0-4 3rd Semifinals ('98, '18) F1: Tied #22 Morocco 0-0 F4: Beat #41 Canada 4-1 F5: Tied #2 Belgium 0-0 R16: Beat #24 1E-Japan 1-1 (3-1 PSO) QF: Beat #1 1G-Brazil 1-1 (4-2 PSO)		#4 | D1 | Group D Winners | 4-1-0 7th Semifinals ('58, '82, '86, '98, '06, '18) D1: Beat #38 Australia 4-1 D4: Beat #10 Denmark 2-1 D6: Lost #30 Tunisia 0-1 R16: Beat #26 2C-Poland 3-1 QF: Beat #5 1B-England 2-1	#22 | F3 | Group F Winners | 3-0-2 1st Semifinals F1: Tied #12 Croatia 0-0 F3: Beat #1 Belgium 2-0 F6: Beat #41 Canada 2-1 R16: Beat #7 2E-Spain 0-0 (3-0 PSO) QF: Beat #9 1H-Portugal 1-0

CROATIA IS RANKED #12 IN THE WORLD, YOU KNOW
16 entries fighting for remaining 4 money spots; Bonus keeps another 69 entries with hope

FISHBAR IN MANHATTAN BEACH, CA (smt) -- 2F-Croatia has less wins in this WC than teams like 1E-Japan and 2D-Australia and yet, thanks to four draws, are a step away from their second straight final.  They are the #12 team in the world and yet are lumped with 1F-Morocco as impossible party crashers.  Ironically, CRO and MAR are the only 2 semifinalists who have not lost a match yet (1A-Netherlands is the only other team without an official loss (lost in PSO)).  CRO have beaten the #1  (1G-Brazil) and #2 (F1-Belgium) teams in the world, and in order to win their first WC, they will have to beat #3 1C-Argentina and then potentially #4 1D-France.  Their struggle is real though, as they have played 2 scoreless draws and 4 of their 6 goals were against F2-Canada.

MAR is ranked decently at #22 (not #53 like C2-Saudi Arabia who beat ARG), are on a 10-match unbeaten streak (last loss to 2B-USA), and have only conceded one goal (an own goal) but are still huge underdogs (9:1 to win the WC).  FRA (~1:1 to win WC) could have underestimated MAR but close relations (several players born in France play for Morocco as well as their coach; several MAR players play in FRA's Ligue 1; as well as MAR was once a colony of FRA) should make FRA more cautious than #1 BEL (lost 2-0), #7 Spain (lost 3-0 in penalty shootout), and #9 Portugal (lost 1-0) who were all ousted by this team.  Morocco has also bid many times to host the WC (losing in '94, '98, '06, '10, and '26) and maybe winning the WC could give them a boost (I mean, if tiny Qatar can host one...). 

As an aside, Morocco used to have the abbreviation MOR (used for the 1998 World Cup) but around 2000, it changed to its French name (Maroc) and the abbreviation became MAR.  Same for Spain, which is ESP but not for its Spanish name España, but for its French (Espagne).  English and French are traditional languages for FIFA (whose acronym is based on French title) but its official language list just included Arabic, Portuguese, and Russian (in addition to German and Spanish) in June 2022.

Issue #7.2.2 "So Fat and Satisfied, They Can't Imagine It" (After Quarterfinals)

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Saturday, December 10, 2022
Dailies: 9-10  

HEAVY FAVORITES BRAZIL & PORTUGAL STUNNED, ARGENTINA SURVIVES
Indy Ari leads but it's Soccerbix who has clinched money; 16 entries still alive and 6 can win the pool

HOME (smt) -- While nothing is a guarantee, 1G-Brazil and 1H-Portugal were coming off blow-outs where both teams were dancing and smiling heading into the quarterfinals as both thought they had the tourney now figured out (BRA just doing choreographed dances after every goal and POR benching Ronaldo).  When BRA went up 1-0 at the end of first half extra time on Neymar's beauty of a goal, BRA celebrated as if they had won and their second half of extra time was very disjointed.  2F-Croatia capitalized on their only shot on goal in the 117' to stop the dancing and in the penalty shootout, CRO made all 4 to win 4-2.

POR had lots of possession but was stunted by a stingy 1F-Morocco team and a late first half goal was all MAR needed to hold off Ronaldo (who came on as a sub) and team, 1-0.  What is cool is that MAR is now the de facto home team as the Arab powerhouse replacing host QAT, who finished #32 of 32 teams in this WC.

After Lionel Messi scored on on a PK in the 73' to put 1C-Argentina up 2-0 against a 1A-Netherlands team that didn't even have a shot on goal, ARG fans were celebrating.  But in a foul-marred match (18 yellows but only 12 in the field of play), NED pulled one back in the 78' and on potentially the very last play in the 90'+11', NED pulled a trick free kick play that was put in to tie it at 2.  Unlike BRA, ARG actually tried to win the game in extra time and when that was scoreless, came alive in the PSO to hold off NED 4-3. 

Issue #6.2.1 "That Would Be Me" (After Round of 16)

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Wednesday, December 7, 2022  ***NATIONAL PEARL HARBOR REMEMBRANCE DAY***

IT'S THE USUAL SUSPECTS BUT MOROCCO CUTS IN LINE
Five tied for 1st; 57 entries still alive and 21 can win the pool

HILTON AT THE BALLPARK, SAINT LOUIS, MO (smt) -- After a fun and crazy group stage that saw teams like 1E-Japan and 1F-Morocco win their groups and four-time champion E3-Germany,  two-time champion (4 if you include pre-WC Olympic titles) H3-Uruguay, and #2 F1-Belgium eliminated, the Round of 16 was shaping up to be a Europe/South America vs North America/Africa/Asia competition.  But the soccer powers rose in stature but there would be one team that defied the odds to make the Quarterfinals.  That would be MAR. 

While favorites 1A-Netherlands (3-1 over 2B-USA - where USA had more possession and shots, but couldn't finish while NED were precision strikes), 1G-Brazil (4-1 over 2H-Korea Rep - Neymar returning for a PK goal), 1B-England (3-0 over 2A-Senegal), 1D-France (3-1 over 2C-Poland - Kylian Mbappe getting his 2nd brace), and 1H-Portugal (6-1 over 2G-Swiss - Goncalo Ramos netting the tourney's 1st hat trick) all rode multi-goal easy victories and 1C-Argentina controlling a 2-1 win over 2D-Australia (where ARG scored for AUS, the tourney's 3rd own goal), you would expect 2E-Spain to have an easy time over MAR.  Even 2018 runner-up 2F-Croatia was able to keep European power in play easily winning in the penalty shootout 3-1 (1-1 draw) over JPN thanks to GK Dominik Lilakovic's three (3!) PK saves.

ESP nearly had 1,000 completed passes and yet just had one shot on goal as MAR battled them to a 0-0 tie after extra time, the tourney's 7th nil-nil draw.  In penalties, MAR GK Yassine Bounou saved 2 PKs and went the right way on another (where ESP hit the right post) to help his team seal a 3-0 PSO win, the last goal by Achraf Hakimi, born in Spain, with a hard panenka down the middle. 

Issue #5.1.4 "The Axe Forgets" (After Group Stage)

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Friday, December 2, 2022  

GHANA AND USA EXTRACT REVENGE, BEL & GER OUT
Kankleiscious is alone in 1st; no eliminations until end of Round of 16

WORK FROM HOME (smt) -- Although it has been 24 years since B2-IR Iran shocked B3-USA and 12 years since H2-Ghana lost in Quarters to H3-Uruguay on a sure game-winning goal nullified by a blatant handball by Luis Suarez, there is an African proverb that is used in Star Wars: Andor - the axe forgets but the tree remembers.  USA battled political questions at press conferences and US Soccer sabotaging players and survived IRN 1-0 to advance to the Round of 16 for the 4th time in their last 5 WCs.  A first-half goal on a crushing run by Christian Pulisic was just enough to erase the 1998 memories.  GHA, after going down 2-0 early with slim hopes of advancing, bunkered down and played spoiler, preventing URU from the R16-clinching 3rd goal as URU may have won 2-0 but were eliminated.  Like the 2010 QF vURU, GHA missed a PK that started their downfall.

While just 11% of teams who lose their first match make the R16, 3 of the first 5 teams (60%) advanced (A3-Senegal, C1-Argentina, D2-Australia).  The last 6 teams did not make it so it ended up being 3/11 (27.3%).  On the flip side, just 16% of teams who win their first match fail to qualify and 2 of the first 5 (40%) did miss out (A2-Ecuador, C2-Saudi Arabia).  Just 1 of the final 6 teams failed to qualify (F1-Belgium, ending that Golden Generation) so it ended up being 3/11 as well (27.3%).  5 teams (C3-Mexico, D4-Tunisia, E3-Germany, G4-Cameroon, and URU) did win their last match but also failed to qualify. 

A4-Netherlands and B1-England picked up easy wins while 3 teams who had already clinched lost (D1-France 0-1 to TUN, G1-Brazil 0-1 to CMR, and H1-Portugal 1-2 to H4-Korea Republic).  ENG actually finished with the best record (7 pts, GD+7) as no team won 3 games for the first time since 1994.  There was just one tie in the last 16 matches (F4-Croatia 0-0 to BEL).

Issue #4.1.3 "One Way Out" (After 2 of 3 Matches)

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Monday, November 28, 2022  

TWENTY-ONE TEAMS KNOW WHAT TO DO TO MAKE R16
Four are tied for 1st with 20 points but next four days can earn 16 points each day

MISTLETOE WRAPPING IN CYPRESS, CA (smt) -- Of the 21 teams who know what they need to do to guarantee themselves in the Round of 16, only the B3-USA has one way out - win or be eliminated.  No backing their way in like in 2002 or 2014.  No slim chance if they didn't win vs Algeria in 2010.  26 of 27 eligible teams can make the Round of 16 (joining D1-France, G1-Brazil, and H1-Portugal) with some help if necessary.  USA gets no help.  No need to watch the D1-England-D4-Wales score.  Doesn't matter.  Win and in.

Only 2 teams have been eliminated (host A1-Qatar and F2-Canada) and just three have qualified leaving an unusually high 27 teams still alive fighting for 13 spots.  E3-Germany has the most difficult guarantee to make the Round of 16, and that is beating E2-Costa Rica by 8 or more goals... considering E1-Spain beat CRC 7-0, maybe possible (though CRC shocked E4-Japan 1-0)?  Otherwise it's win and hope for a good result from JPNvsESP.  WAL and C3-Mexico are in if they win their matches by 4 or more goals.  ENG can lose by 3 goals and still qualify.  All 6 teams that do not control their destiny still need to win for any chance of making the R16.