Late Comebacks & Heartache (12/9)

EL SEGUNDO, CA -- Two South American teams had leads late and both allowed European teams to rally and tie.  Only one overcame heartache to win.  

The #1 team in the world, 1G-Brazil, came off of dancing in the Round of 16 to struggle yet again on offense despite 20 shots.  In extra time, a couple of give-and-gos and great touch around the GK, provided a dramatic goal by Neymar as first half extra time expired.  Neymar's 77th goal for BRA tied him with Pele but the goal affected the team in the second half of extra time as they were confused, being passive, show-boating, and driving forward and that lack of defending focus allowed 2F-Croatia to counter with their first shot on goal slightly deflected and going into the net in the 117'.  

CRO's second straight comeback (third of this WC) sent the match to their second straight penalty shootout, a spot CRO is feeling comfortable having now played 4 in the last two WCs.  CRO's GK made another save (4th in the two PSOs) and with the PSO 4-2 in favor of CRO, BRA hit the left post, sending CRO to their second straight semifinal.  It'll be the "doink" heard around the world.  Neymar didn't even shoot as there was no fifth round of PSO.

6 of CRO's last 7 major tournament knockout matches have gone to extra time, and CRO is 4-0 if it goes to the PSO.  BRA has lost to a European team in the knockout stage in five straight WCs since their title in 2002.  

Issue #4.1.3 "One Way Out" (After 2 of 3 Matches)

 Archive

Monday, November 28, 2022  

TWENTY-ONE TEAMS KNOW WHAT TO DO TO MAKE R16
Four are tied for 1st with 20 points but next four days can earn 16 points each day

MISTLETOE WRAPPING IN CYPRESS, CA (smt) -- Of the 21 teams who know what they need to do to guarantee themselves in the Round of 16, only the B3-USA has one way out - win or be eliminated.  No backing their way in like in 2002 or 2014.  No slim chance if they didn't win vs Algeria in 2010.  26 of 27 eligible teams can make the Round of 16 (joining D1-France, G1-Brazil, and H1-Portugal) with some help if necessary.  USA gets no help.  No need to watch the D1-England-D4-Wales score.  Doesn't matter.  Win and in.

Only 2 teams have been eliminated (host A1-Qatar and F2-Canada) and just three have qualified leaving an unusually high 27 teams still alive fighting for 13 spots.  E3-Germany has the most difficult guarantee to make the Round of 16, and that is beating E2-Costa Rica by 8 or more goals... considering E1-Spain beat CRC 7-0, maybe possible (though CRC shocked E4-Japan 1-0)?  Otherwise it's win and hope for a good result from JPNvsESP.  WAL and C3-Mexico are in if they win their matches by 4 or more goals.  ENG can lose by 3 goals and still qualify.  All 6 teams that do not control their destiny still need to win for any chance of making the R16. 

VAR Revisited

I have to hand it to FIFA, they have been very forthcoming on the VAR details throughout the tournament (well, after the Round of 16 at least).  Their final refereeing report notes there were 33 official VAR reviews, of which 29 overturned a decision on the field (in fairness, the refs are calling the game conservatively and allowing VAR to intervene if necessary).  The average VAR review was 1:33 but most felt longer, and with three doubles (PK review and then GK off line review) which lasted more than 5 minutes in duration (possible foul to goal).  They do note there were 53 "serious checks" which aren't VAR reviews and thus adds to the confusion, especially since the average delay was a long 37 seconds.  I've captured 11 of these "serious checks" which everyone thought was a VAR review since it took so long and with the ref in the infamous pose of the two fingers to the earpiece.  The only one I missed was the 9' Italy PK against Jamaica.

One detail they didn't elaborate on was the technical team reviewed 535 incidents and determined 8 were wrong even with VAR (98.50%).  But they don't list the 8 "wrong" decisions (29 of 37 "wrong" decisions were overturned using VAR so none of the VAR reviews were "incorrect").  I wonder if the no-call handball on USA was one of those and penalized France for it in the Round of 16.

Other interesting tidbits were half the 26 PKs awarded were due to VAR and they split up the VAR reviews into "on field" and "VAR only" categories.  Also, there were only four seminars on VAR training and reinforces that the refs were not fully prepared on how to handle matches with VAR at their disposal.  All in all, VAR is a positive but more communication with the audience is needed so that people aren't frustrated why there is a delay in action.  Except for that USA-France match (which also featured a USA goal that seemed like the offsides call was wrong), the vast majority of the VAR calls were consistent, even if we disagree with using the letter of the law to ruin the spirit of the law.

VAR (-Reversal(Taken Away), +Reversal(Added), =Confirmed, xNo Call): 44 (Official: 33) [1-FRA xOff+{g-} 27', 4-ESP xPK= 66', 4-ESP xPK+ 79', 5-ITA Off={xg} 9', 5-ITA xPK= 67', 5-ITA Off={xg} 81', 6-BRA PK= 37', 7-ENG xPK+ 12', 13-FRA xPK+ 68', 14-NGA xHB={g} 29', 17-AUS xPK={F+} 20', 17-AUS Off-{g+} 66', 1-ITA xPK+ 9', 18-JAM xGK+{retake PK} 11', 19-ENG xPK+ 27', 23-USA xPK+ 78', 24-SWE xPK+ 90'+3, 25-FRA xPK+ 73', 25-NGA xGK+{retake PK} 76', 32-ARG xPK+ 86', 32-SCO xGK+{retake PK} 90'+2, 33-CAN PK- 1', 35-USA xOff={g} 50', 36-CHI xPK+ 83' | 37-AUS PK- 42', 37-AUS xPK= 88', 37-AUS RC= 104', 38-GER xOff={g} 20', 38-GER xPK+ 24', 39-ENG Off-{g+} 45'+4, 39-CMR xOff+{g-} 49', 39-ENG xPK= 76', 39-CMR RC-{Y} 90'+8, 40-FRA xF+{g-} 23', 40-BRA Off-{g+} 63', 40-BRA Off={xg} 87', 41-USA PK= 71', 42-CAN xPK+ 66', 42-SWE xOff+{PK-} 81', 48-GER Off={xPK=} 82', 49-ENG xOff-{g-} 67', 49-ENG xPK+ 79', 51-ENG xHB+{g-} 33', 52-USA xPK+ 58']

VAR Syndrome

"Var Syndrome.  It suddenly destabilizes people's minds and reduces them to a violent mob.  People grew to fear these tragic events, which could happen anywhere and anytime.  However, amongst the fear, some rose up valiantly to fight back." -- Macross Delta, Episode 1, Prologue.

Who would have thought that one of the coolest Japanese anime (with great transforming mecha action and awesome songs by Walküre (listen!)) would have a reference so appropriate for what the Women's World Cup (WWC) is experiencing.  In the show, Vár Syndrome is a fold bacteria that affects the host at a cellular level usually causing the host to be uncontrollable and becoming super powerful, overriding common sense.  In the WWC, VAR Syndrome is a video assistant review process that affects matches at a minute level usually causing the matches to be uncontrollable and becoming super powerful, overriding common sense.  In both of these interpretations, VAR has taken a life of its own once allowed to germinate.  And in both of these interpretations, people start to fight back and take away the power of the VAR, starting with all the critics of VAR or the English Premier League neutering VAR by modifying when it will get used.

In 44 matches thus far, depending on how you count a "VAR review", I list 38 stoppages of play have happened because either VAR has contacted the referee or the referee has asked VAR to review a play.  I've heard on FOX 33 VAR reviews after ESPvUSA (I had 36) and 17 from FIFA press release after group stage (I had 23).  The FIFA app lists 30 specifically called out via VAR icon (18 after group stage).  Today's presser talked about 29 (25 being reversed).  Most of these last 1-3 minutes with some taking more than 8 minutes from infraction to the finish (e.g., PK scored).  This has resulted in 5-8 minutes of stoppage time in some matches.  By my count, at least 21 of the 44 matches had no real VAR review (maybe a VAR "check" but not a long stoppage of play) but boy, the ones that did...

Issue #2.1.1 "Favorites Exposed in Russia" (After 16 Matches)

Archive

Tuesday, June 19, 2018 

GERMANY STUNNED AND GROUP H UPSIDE DOWNA record 79 entries vie for 6th pool title; Ilvecchio is in 1st

LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (LAX), CA (smt) --  The host nation A1-Russia opened the World Cup in grand fashion thrashing A2-Saudi Arabia 5-0but it was F2-Mexico who provided the biggest shockwave of the tournament, literally according to seismologists, with a 1-0 win over the defending champions.  F1-Germany is ranked #1 in the world and won all 10 UEFA qualifying matches with a +39 goal differential.  The biggest upset, however, was the smallest-ever qualifying nation of D2-Iceland scoring a game-tying goal against powerhouse D1-Argentina.  Just a few years ago Iceland was ranked in the triple-digits and then the shocking win over England in EUROs two years ago gave them a Gonzaga-like vibe and who wouldn't want to do the Skol Viking Chant?  Lionel Messi also missed a penalty kick that kept the game tied at 1.  The odds-on favorite to win the World Cup, E1-Brazil, struggled against a foul-against-Neymar E2-Swiss team and ended up with a disappointing tie, even though SUI is ranked 6th in the world.  It's much better than their previous two WC matches, a 3-0 loss to Netherlands and a 7-1 thrashing by Germany.  Only G1-Belgium came away with a victory, a convincing one as well 3-0, amongst the top 6 ranked teams in the world. 

In the most anticipated match of the Group Stage, Match # 3 saw the two Iberian peninsula powers, B1-Portugal and B2-Spain, go at it for what seemed like the millionth time and the match didn't disappoint.  From

Straight Red (6/19)

The first red card of the tournament!  Just three minutes in, H4-Japan caught H3-Colombia off-guard and what could've been a red card (at least a yellow) for trying to drag down Yuya Osako as he went 1v1 on the GK, credit to Osako, he didn't dive, continued forward with the shot that was saved but the rebound shot by Shinji Kagawa is saved by Carlos Sanchez... by his arm and he reaches out to stop the ball.  Dumb play as Colombia could've easily rallied from a very early 1-0 deficit, but much harder to do with just 10 men.  In my mischief, I was kinda hoping there would be two reds on Colombia but one is good enough.  Credit to Colombia for fighting back and the classic free kick UNDER the wall was brilliantly done to level up 1-1 (reminded me of David Beckham's first match in New York in 2007, where Juan Pablo Angel did the same thing, going under the LA Galaxy wall past the GK on a free kick).  But Japan would get the game-winner off a corner and becomes the first AFC team to beat a CONMEBOL team in World Cup play.

Meanwhile, H2-Senegal used a H1-Poland own goal to gain confidence and never let

Great sportsmanship

Interesting... you don't see this too often.  On a ball played by NED from midfield, the ESP GK misplayed the bounce and went over his head (luckily not in goal) and out of bounds.  For some reason, the linesman/ref called for a CK.  On the CK, NED sportsmanly (is that a word?) played the ball back to the GK, effectively correcting the bad call by the ref.  Can you imagine if the GER GK after ENG's goal was not called decided to correct it and kick it into his net (on second thought, I don't think you can intentionally kick the ball into your own net (with Gordo, it's sometimes hard to tell if it was intentional or not) so the GER GK would have to just lay the ball down for ENG to kick in.  33'.

Good refs?

The ref is doing a great job managing the game.  He isn't falling for all the diving taking place (maybe giving a foul but not a yellow card) and he somehow saw own-goaler Melo step on Robben (who wasn't faking for once) and gave him a straight red.  Then on some silly play at the sidelines, the ref ran up to give a yellow card to NED and accidentally pulled out the red (he had it down and never raised it up) and gave a big smile when he realized his mistake.  Now, BRA is down a man and there are only 10 minutes left.

Scoreless at the half

Why is Japan kicking free kicks in the box instead of on goal (where they scored twice last match)?  Nice to see FIFA's Shep Blatter admit two mistakes by the refs (MEX, ENG) but what about USA's???  Goal line technology is necessary because the linesmen and ref are never going to be in the best position to make that call.  That blown offsides call was just that... a blown call by the ref.

Refs Having a Bad Day

Missed offsides leads to ARG having a 2-0 lead at the half.

Meanwhile, as of yesterday, Forza Pazza has a 23.1% chance of winning the first place prize of $310 and a 44.9% chance to win money.  But he doesn't have the best odds.  EEChick1400 has a 63.8% chance to win money.  You can now click on the "Possibilities" tab and see how much of a chance you have (if you weren't one of the 12 eliminated).  This will be updated tonight to include the GER and MEX/ARG wins.

Coincidence?

I haven't followed either game that closely, but what are the odds that both the POR-BRA (scoreless, mind you) and CIV-PRK matches both have FIVE additional minutes of stoppage time... are the two refs in contact with each other?

Refs in Spotlight

In the first match, the ref took out his yellow card as if they were meal tickets, including GER's Miraslov Klose getting two cards for a benign and harmless tackle in the first half.  His two were part of 6 given out by the ref in the first half with Serbia immediately taking advantage for a 1-0 lead.  Germany still had their chances and missed a PK after SRB once again committed an extremely dumb handball, with Nemanja Vidic reaching out as if it was a football passed to him.  That's SRB's second such incident... are these really FOOTBALL players, not FUTBOL players?

The USA once again allowed an early goal and another defensive lapse put them down 2-0.  But a great goal by Landon to start the second half (well, if he didn't roof it, he would've taken out the head of the SLV GK) and great half-volley by Bradley tied the score.  Unfortunately, the ref interjected himself with questionable calls all game (including one favoring the US, when Dempsey was spared a card in the first minute) with the biggest one being the phantom foul called on the US's 3rd goal.  Unlike in baseball when umpire Jim Joyce immediately acknowledged his mistake, FIFA doesn't allow its referees to comment.  Upon looking at it, nearly every USA player was grabbed in the box.  But the USA still showed a lot o heart, but next time, let's score first for once.  The ref did do the USA a favor, though, giving Findley a phantom yellow card which means he'll miss the next game.  Thank you!  This tie was the first tie in 9 matches (CIV-POR).

The USA chances got even better with England's lackluster effort in a scoreless draw with Algeria.  Now, with if USA wins, they're in.  Even a tie is a possibility.  Here are the Group C scenarios:

Group C       
    P W L D F A GD Pts
SVN 2 1-0-1 3 2  1  4
USA 2 0-0-2 3 3  0  2
ENG 2 0-0-2 1 1  0  2
ALG 2 0-1-1 0 1 -1  1

***Group C Scenarios
~REMAIN: SVN-ENG, USA-ALG
~NOTE: ENG=USA, ENG=ALG, SVN=USA
y-SVN W or (GD/GF/DL) T&USA W
y-(GD/GF/DL) USA W&SVN T/L
y-ENG W&USA L/T or (GD/GF/DL) ENG W&USA W
x-SVN W/T or L&USA T/L
x-USA W or (GF/DL) T&ENG T
x-ENG W or (GF/DL) T&USA T
x-ALG W&ENG T/L or (GD/GF/HH) W&ENG W

Vuvuzela effect?

Well, that didn't take long for the first blown call of the World Cup... and curiously in favor of the home team... offside?  handball?  No and no.

UPDATE:  So all this time, I never knew offside was you had to have TWO opponents behind you.  Since the GK is usually always the 2nd opponent this seems to get overlooked.  I mean if the announcers couldn't figure it out, how am I to?  Anyway, since the GK came out, only one RSA person was behind, on the goal line.  So good call after all.