Live! Spain v England (8/20)

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WAITING FOR TROPICAL STORM, CA - A new country will hold the WWC title and either one will also be able to brag that they have won a Men's and Women's World Cup (Germany the only country to do so).  2C-Spain didn't win their group but learned from their 4-0 dubbing by Japan and found late goals to make their first final (and first-ever knockout wins).  1D-England struggled to score but continued to win to reach their 3rd straight semifinal and first final.

Tom J has won our 3rd HWCI Women's World Cup pool but which entry will it be?  Kds911-2 will win if ESP wins and will bring Brian B's 3rd entry The Naomi Girma Era, Rob C's CarinJennins-IsGOAT, and Tony N's Lavelle Lover into 2nd/3rd/4th place positions.  Kds911-3 will win if ENG wins, pushing Kds911-2 to 2nd place (a Tom J double!), Paul T's 3rd entry Jolly Old England, and Mark H's Tiocfaidh Ár Lá!!! to 2nd/3rd/4th.  Tiebreakers don't play a part for the top 4 money spots but it currently stands at 2 goals.

3:23 am:  Got a couple hours sleep and now watching on my iPad to slowly wake up.  0-0.

24': Ah, "the fan runs on the field" play.  Yellow security guards hopefully tackling hard.  No Laruen James for ENG (3 goals, 1 foot on back of player) to start, coming back after 2-match suspension.

25': So ENG hit the crossbar earlier.  And ENG is wearing a light baby blue jersey which is ironic, since I was wearing my baby blue 2012 ESP away jersey while my kids and I helped my Mom put up tarps on her old house.

29 (28:33)': ESP scores!  1-0.  A turnover leads to a switchback and a great one-time finish by Olga (Carmona)!  Brian/Rob/Tony jumping for joy.  BTW, five picked ESP and 5 ENG to win today.

45'+1: 1 minute added and and ESP hits the right post, which could have been a morale breaker for ENG.

Half:  ESP has a 53/33% possession (63% if adding to 100%) and 6-3 lead on shots.  Each has 2 of them on goal (posts and crossbars don't count).

55': First yellow for ESP which looked worse but was not much of a foul.

62': ESP's wind-up shot is just high.  ENG did bring James in at halftime (1 of 2 subs).

64': Scramble and ESP shot deflects wide.  Calls for handball and ref will check (65:20).  And after a long look at the fingertips, ESP will get a PK (67:25)!

69:03: ESP PK by J. Hermoso... saved!  No rebound, just gobbled up.  Why almost 90 seconds to take a PK?  Gamesmanship as Hermoso placed the ball forward of the spot and ref makes her move it back, but just inches further. 

78': Blood!  Yellow for ESP.  Knee to head coming together.  Interesting long delay, since there was a yellow, player does not have to come off the field (but will change off field anyway).  Thanks, Fox TV for the interesting tidbit!  Back playing in 82'.

87': It's the 87th minute but doesn't feel like it with all the injuries, VAR, and subs.  No panic or urgency yet.  Crowd also very quiet.

90':  13 min of stoppage (29% of the normal 45)!!!  1 more than the 12 given at end of Netherlands-Spain Round of 16.

90'+2: Great ESP possession for a couple minutes leads to a kick save.  No urgency by ENG yet, but 11 more min of stoppage still to go.

90'+7:  Still 7 min to go.  Very odd atmosphere, very quiet crowd.  But Brian/Rob/Tony don't care if it stays this way.

90'+10:  In stoppage, time, ESP leads on shots 4-0 as ENG can't get possession.

104:18: ENG finally makes it into the box and gets a corner but the CK is smothered by the GK. Whistle blows!  ESP wins first WWC and adds hardware to their U17 (2018 & 2022) and U20 titles (2022).  And without some of their best players in protest.  Young team will only get better.  Congrats to Tom J, Brian B, Rob C, and Tony N for winning money!  Paul T and Mark H will wonder where was ENG all second half?  Did they know they were down 1-0?

Host Pushed Aside (8/19)

PREPARING FOR TROICAL STORM IN LA MIRADA, CA - Even with no corner kicks (their forte), 1G-Sweden still easily took care of the hosts, 1B-Australia, 2-0 in the 3rd place match.  Both teams took it seriously with strong starting lineups and a lot of chippiness including a great two-handed shove by AUS on the SWE player.  SWE gets their fourth 3rd place medal to along with a 2nd place finish.  5 semifinals in 9 tourneys is pretty good, but still no trophy to show for it.  

The hosts survived a 2nd match shock loss to Nigeria before shocking France in penalty kicks in the quarterfinals.  Record TV ratings supported the team throughout the tourney though AUS tied for the most losses (3) with four other teams (AUS played 4 more games).

Lots of soccer news with USWMT needing a new coach, Messi mania as he goes for a trophy in Leagues Cup, and MLS's LA teams postponing Sunday matches due to tropical storm (from Hurricane Hilary) set to hit Sunday (really, with LAGvLAFC postponed earlier this year, both LA teams have two home games moved due to weather).

Tiebreakers do not matter for the top 4 spots but the total goals tiebreaker is at 2 with one match to go.  Will Tom J win with Kds911-2 (ESP wins) or Kds911-3 (ENG wins) and can he place both in 1st and 2nd (ENG wins)?  7 entries vying for the final 3 money spots.

Kerr-fuffle (8/16)

EL SEGUNDO, CA - In front of a sellout crowd of 75,784, 1B-Australia's injured superstar Sam Kerr walloped a 22-yard strike in the 63' to level the match with 1D-England at 1.  But a bad shielding play allowed ENG to poke one in 8 minutes later en route to a 3-1 final score.  Kerr had several more opportunities but tired legs (it was her first start) skied one high from close range.  The will-she or won't-she start put Kerr in a bad spot of playing the whole match, where the first 45 was uneventful.  

ENG makes its first WWC final and hope to raise a second trophy after winning the Women's Euros last July.  Hopefully host AUS will soon realize that going after that 3rd place finish will reward the tremendous fans with one final victory lap.  ENG v ESP should be high-quality passing and entertaining soccer with two giants battling it out.

21 entries had ENG making the Final with Kds911-2 (1st, 131) and The Naomi Girma Era (2nd-Tied, 119) getting both ENG and ESP.  21 had neither.  ENG and ESP were each picked by 5 entries to win it all, behind USA's 26 and GER's 6.  Thus, we don't know which entry will win the pool.  But we do know it will be Tom J, as he wins with either Kds911-2 (ESP win) or Kds911-3 (4th, 118) (ENG win).  An ENG win will give him 1st and 2nd!  And his main entry, Kds911 is tied for 2nd but is eliminated while Tiocfaidh Ár Lá!!! is 11th but can still win 4th.  The Naomi Girma Era is tied for 2nd but can't win the pool while Kds911-3 is 4th but can still win the pool.  8 entries are alive but only Kds911-2 is guaranteed money, leaving 7 vying for the final 3 money spots.

Deja Vu (8/15)

HOME, CA - I know it was past 2:30 am and I have been traveling with little sleep and just got back to the West Coast, but didn't I see this before?  Once again, 2C-Spain scored in the 81' like they did against the Netherlands.  Once again, ESP relaxed and allowed their opponent to tie it very late as 1G-Sweden took 7:01 to strike back in the 88', like NED tied it in the 90'+1.  And once again, ESP scored the game-winner, this time just 90 seconds later in the 89' instead of in Extra Time.  The 2-1 win put ESP in their first Final and SWE is now 1-4 in WWC semifinals.  Of all things, a corner kick led to the game-winning goal and this time it was from ESP, not SWE.

For a team where 12 players sat out of the WWC to protest the coach, ESP's 1.5 team is pretty good.  SWE, who had goal line technology and the crossbar on their side this tournament (GLT for game-winning PSO goal vUSA, GLT for no goal off JPN's PK off the crossbar), could not escape this time as the ball off the crossbar bounced easily inside the goal.

7 had ESP making the final while two lost SWE as their champion, leaving 8 entries alive and just 3 who can win the pool.  Although 3 entries can win, it's actually between two people.  Rob C (CarinJennings-IsGOAT (2nd, 117 pts) wins the pool if 1B-Australia wins their semifinal and Tom J (Kds911-2 (1st, 122) or Kds911-3 (6th, 109)) wins if 1D-England wins their semifinal.  Only Kds911-2 has clinched at least a tie for 4th place so 7 entries are vying for the final 3 spots.  Lavelle Lover is 3rd (113) but can't win the pool while Kds911-3 can win it.  Kds911 is 4th but is eliminated while Tiocfaidh Ár Lá!!! is 12th but finish 4th.

And Messi scored again - he's scored in six straight matches.

Thrillers (8/12)

OTTAWA, ON - Missed the 3 am and 6 am EDT matches due to IEEE Sections Congress here at the Shaw Center and was spoiled on both matches.  However, watching the replay of the entire 1B-Australia and 1F-France penalty shootout was crazy.  The tourney's 10th nil-nil tie saw a record 10-round PSO with AUS coming up on top, 7-6. AUS's GK made back-to-back saves (the first she was off her line too early, the re-take, guessed right again), 4 posts were hit (only 1 bouncing in for a goal), and another GK took a kick (AUS's game-clincher hit the right post in the 5th round).  Host AUS's win prevented an all-Euro semifinals.

1D-England rallied to beat 1H-Colombia, 2-1, the 6th time a team allowed to first goal and won.  The Euro winners got a lucky game tying goal right before halftime (7th minute of stoppage) as the GK fumbled for an easy tap in.  No one will forget the great fans of COL making every game a home game or their purple jerseys.  COL outshot ENG 15-9.

Wore my IEEE Rising Stars jersey promoting our 10th anniversary in front of the Ottawa sign in ByWard Market area going to a restaurant Somewhere.  No, seriously, the place is called Somewhere Dine Bar.

AUS's win guaranteed Kds911-2 at least a tie for 4th place as 18 picked AUS to make the semis.  26 picked ENG as 13 both both games correct while 16 got none.  Two lost FRA as their champ.  10 got 3 of 4 semifinalists while 7 got none of the teams correct.  Tom J's three entries are the top 3.  Kds911-2 still leads with 113 pts with Kds911 second with 110 pts (but can't finish higher than 4th), and Kds911-3 third with 109 pts.  

7 other entries are still alive and five can still win the pool.  CarinJennings-IsGoat (4th, 109) has the best chance to win the pool (37.5%).  More$ is 7th (105) but is eliminated while The Naomi Girma Era is tied for 12th and can finish 2nd.  The aforementioned Kds911 can't win the pool while Tiocfaidh Ár Lá!!! is 11th (103) but can still win it all.

The Final Four scenarios are below:

If SPAIN beats AUSTRALIA in Final…
1st	CarinJennings-IsGOAT	140
2nd	Kds911-2	136
3rd	Lavelle Lover	127
4th	The Naomi Girma Era	124
If AUSTRALIA beats SPAIN in Final…
1st	CarinJennings-IsGOAT	126
2nd	Kds911-2	122
3rd	Eggman 2	116
4th	Lavelle Lover	113
If SPAIN beats ENGLAND in Final…
1st	Kds911-2	145
2nd	The Naomi Girma Era	133
3rd	CarinJennings-IsGOAT	131
4th	Lavelle Lover	127
If ENGLAND beats SPAIN in Final…
1st	Kds911-3	132
2nd	Kds911-2	131
3rd	Jolly Old England	129
4th	Tiocfaidh Ár Lá!!!	126
If SWEDEN beats AUSTRALIA in Final…
1st	ShrimpOnTheBarbie	127
2nd	CarinJennings-IsGOAT	117
3rd	Eggman 2	116
4th	Kds911-2	113
If AUSTRALIA beats SWEDEN in Final…
1st	CarinJennings-IsGOAT	117
2nd	Eggman 2	116
3rd-Tied	ShrimpOnTheBarbie	113	Tie:	2.5	Wins 3rd if <=5, 4th if >=6
3rd-Tied	Kds911-2	113	Tie:	8.0	Wins 4th if <=5, 3rd if >=6
If SWEDEN beats ENGLAND in Final…
1st	ShrimpOnTheBarbie	136
2nd	Kds911-2	122
3rd	Tiocfaidh Ár Lá!!!	121
4th	Kds911	119
If ENGLAND beats SWEDEN in Final…
1st	Tiocfaidh Ár Lá!!!	135
2nd	Kds911-3	132
3rd	Jolly Old England	129
4th-Tie	ShrimpOnTheBarbie	122	Tie:	2.5	Wins 4th if <=5
4th-Tie	Kds911-2	122	Tie:	8.0	Wins 4th if >=6

Switchback (8/11)

PARC DE LA GATINEAU, CHELSEA, QC - So confused.  Where was this 1G-Sweden team who were crisp and creative in the first half instead of the defensive-minded team vs USA with just one shot on goal in 120 minutes?  And where was this tentative 1C-Japan team who were without a shot for 67 minutes instead of the clinical attacking team vs 2C-Spain and Norway?  

And then just like that, they switched back as SWE survived a missed JPN PK, got another ball goal line technology go their way (no goal for JPN off a wicked direct free kick), and weathered a late surge.  And then just like that, JPN's passing was short and crisp which led to 11 shots in the final 22 minutes+ and several chances for game-tying goal, but eventually fell short, 2-1.  Credit to SWE who outplayed JPN at their own game in the first half and then at the end, got their passing game back to waste time in stoppage.  The short JPN passing is so fun to watch and it's too bad they waiting too long to turn it back on.  SWE's GK came up with another clutch save in stoppage time and the one goal she allowed, she was slightly injured after that wicked free kick went off the crossbar and JPN recovered and put two shots in quick succession.  

ESP got a PK in the 81' but 1E-Netherlands fought back with some life finally and tied it in the 90'+1 (of 12 (!) minutes of added time).  NED then had two great chances in extra time but didn't get it on frame either time and then shortly thereafter ESP came down and scored the game-winner in 111'.  So we won't get a ESPvJPN rematch but we get an all-Euro semifinal (maybe the 1st of 2 depending on 1D-England and 1F-France results).  While in Ottawa, Subway had a CAN WNT promo with Christine Sinclair so had to get one (not hers, but the Canadian Classic) wearing my second Japan fan shirt, a 2022 Ukiyo-e version, which is a great blue wave combination.

18 got ESP and 16 SWE in the semifinals.  But no one got both as 34 went 1-1 (cause, USA should be in the semis, right?).  No change at the top with Kds911-2 still leading with 99 points with More$ 98 and Lavelle Lover 97.  But it's ShrimpOnTheBarbie (13th-Tied, 90) with the best chance to win the pool at 28.1% while Kds911-2 moves closer to money (71.9%).  More$ is 2nd but can't win the pool while ShrimpOnTheBarbie is tied for 13th and can win the pool.  Flying Elvi is tied for 13th and is eliminated while Sebastian is tied for 30th (83) and can still win 2nd.  Tiny Destroyer is still last (58).

Issue #8.2.1 "Early Exit Polls" (After Round of 16)

 Archive

Tuesday, August 8, 2023 

Dailies: Aug 5-6-7-8 

CHAMPS DOWN; ENGLAND SURVIVES; TOP TEAMS DAZZLE
Kds911-2 maintains 1-point lead but Lavelle Lover has best chance to win pool

HOME, CA (smt) --  Showing that their 4-0 loss to 1C-Japan was just a fluke, 2C-Spain exploded to a 4-1 halftime lead (scoring all 5 goals since 1A-Switzerland's goal was a Spanish own goal) to reach the quarterfinal in a 5-1 rout while JPN methodically broke a 1-1 halftime tie in a comfortable 3-1 win over 2A-Norway in a battle between #11 JPN and #12 NOR.  A potential rematch between JPN and ESP in the semifinals looms but they will have to win their quarterfinal matches first. 1F-France easily beat #72 2H-Morocco 4-0 and host 1B-Australia took care of business winning 2-0 over 2D-Denmark, that saw the brief return of Sam Kerr.  1E-Netherlands took advantage of winning the group beating #54 2G-South Africa, 2-0.

What wasn't a fluke?  2E-USA not being able to score.  Despite more controlling play, a stifling defense that only allowed one shot on goal, and lots of opportunities (21 shots, 12 on goal), USA went a full 120 minutes against 1G-Sweden scoreless (extending the goalless streak to 238 minutes) and then missed (not saved) three penalty kicks to lose 5-4.  A goal line technology "goal" showing the whole ball crossing the line by a hair was emblematic of USA's story this WWC.   That the highly reliable Meagan Rapinoe skied a penalty (years since she missed?) shows this WWC just didn't fit right with the USWNT, with odd substitutions, soft second yellow cards (not in this match though, the ref let them play), and talent on the field that looked more like an all-star team playing for the first time rather than a team.  If you look at it, USA only allowed two shots on goal the whole tournament.  Only allowed one goal (tied for best).  They tied and lost in the PSO to the #3 team in the world (not Nigeria, not Colombia).  #3.  They will finish 9th in this WWC as the best of the R16 losers but it doesn't make it any better (though Germany, Canada, and Brazil will say what about us?).

Back to Normal? (8/8)

HOME, CA - #5 1F-France scored four more goals and #25 1H-Colombia finally beat a team worse than them.  FRA left no doubt building a 3-0 halftime lead in beating #72 2H-Morocco, 4-0 including a wicked shot past an offside player who didn't interfere but watched the ball bounce off the left post and in.  MAR was ranked 67 spots worse than FRA but MAR had beaten #17 Korea Rep (55 spots better) and COL (47 spots better) but back to normal reigned supreme.  The aforementioned loss to MAR meant COL had only beat teams better than them (#2 Germany & KOR) but managed to squeak out a 1-0 win over #43 2F-Jamaica.  JAM allowed their first goal of the tourney and it cost them (they finished an odd 1 goal for-1 goal against in 4 matches).

So 7 of the 8 group winners made the quarterfinals (sorry, 1A-Swiss) which is why USA, you needed to score goals and win the group.  All 3 African and both CONCACAF teams lost while both Asian/Australian teams advanced with 5 Europeans and South American COL.  Wore my 2019 away France hexagon-dot jersey with rose pink logo in front of the sprawling Downey Kaiser hospital campus.

39 got FRA and GenX99er (21st, 81 pts) got COL.  40 went 1-1 while 7 went 0-2.  For the Round of 16, eight got 6 of 8 teams and two (Pink Penguino (45th, 66) and Rutin4Putin (46th, 64)) got just 2 of 8.  Kds911-2 maintains the one point lead (92 pts) over More$ with Lavelle Lover and Vlatko Better Win tied for 3rd (90).  Leader Tom J also sits tied for 5th (Kds911 (89)) and tied for 8th (Kds911-3, 88).  Tiny Destroyer is still last (58) but Rutin4Putin is the only entry that can't pick up any more points.

Despite picking COL, FRA winning eliminated GenX99er from the money along with two others, leaving 25 entries still in the running.  While leader Kds911-2 has the best chance to finish in the top 4 (51.6%), it's Lavelle Lover with the best chance to win the pool now (14.8%).  9 entries have a better than 1 in 5 chance to win money and 13 can still win the pool as the #3, #4, #5, and #6 ranked teams are still alive.

Hawkeye is tied for 10th (87) but can't win the pool while Jota is tied for 18th (82) and can still be champ.  Flying Elvi is tied for 16th (83) but is eliminated while Sebastian is tied for 34th (76) and can still win 2nd place.

One Step Forward, One Step on Back (8/7)

KAISER HOSPITAL, DOWNEY, CA - Like the #1 USA, #4 1D-England has had trouble scoring, barely beating #53 Haiti and #13 Denmark by 1-0 scores.  An outburst against China PR gave fans hope, but once again ENG struggled, not scoring in 120 minutes vs #40 2B-Nigeria.  NGA at one point outshot ENG 6-0 but NGA also had to settle for their 3rd 0-0 match.  Despite being a player up for 33 minutes due to a bonehead stomp by ENG's Lauren James on a downed NGA's player back that VAR correctly notified the ref "nope, that's a definite red, not yellow", NGA couldn't find the game-winner.  In penalties, 3 of the first 4 players missed (1 ENG, 2 NGA) before ENG nailed the last three, downing NGA 4-2.

Talk about being the focal point of the game, VAR intervened on a judgement call in the box and prodded the ref to change her call in the 31', negating the foul and penalty kick.  It didn't seem like a suggestion, but an order from up high.  Not clear and obvious and too bad the VAR officials wanted their 15 minutes of fame.

Meanwhile, co-host 1B-Australia weathered an early 2D-Denmark attack and got a goal in each half to advance to the quarters, 2-0.  Sam Kerr entered this WWC for the first time in the 80' after the brouhaha of her injury status at the start of the first match.  Wore my 2008 home AUS jersey when the cartoon kangaroo was in the logo.

46 had ENG making the quarters and 32 AUS and 27 got both while Rutin4Putin missed both.  Six R16 matches in, ten have gotten 5 of 6 teams and four only got 2 of 6.  Kds911-2 leads with 87 points with More$ second with 86.  Lavelle Lover and Vlatko Better Win are tied for 3rd (85).  Just 4 entries were eliminated leaving 28 alive and just one can't win the pool, leaving 16 with a chance to win the pool.  Kds911-2 has the best chance at 1st (15.6%) and money (59.8%).  Hawkeye is tied for 10th but can't win the pool while GenX99er is 26th but can still win it.  Sieger is tied for 13th (80) but is eliminated while Sebastian is tied for 34th and can still finish 2nd.  Tiny Destroyer is last with 53 pts (but can get up to 72 pts).

Unforced Errors (8/6)

HOME, CA - Half the quarterfinal field is set and it will be without '95 champion Norway, 2-time champion ('03 and '07) champion Germany, and now, without 4-time champion ('91, '99, '15, and '19) 2E-USA who were ousted 5-4 in the penalty kick shootout to 1G-Sweden.  Only '11 champ 1C-Japan is still alive.  There was no switch to turn on as USA went the last 238 minutes without a goal and missed four penalties (3 in the PSO).  They played much better against #3 SWE and lost in the most bizarre way, a goal line technology on the last kick indicating the entire ball crossed the line by a hair, giving SWE the win.

For me, tie goes to the runner so even if you can't see the hair between the ball and line, I'm good calling it a goal. USA outshot SWE 21-8 but couldn't get it past GK Zecira Musovic, who made 11 saves but ironically, none in the 7-round penalty shootout, because the U.S. completely missed the goal in 3 of their last 4 kicks.  Bizarre.  

Who didn't miss for the U.S.?  Alyssa Naeher who had one save and scored one goal in the PSO.  The bright spot for the Americans is the defense as they limited SWE to just 3 CKs (SWE had 4 goals off corners) but geez, why is a SWE free kick near the mid-field circle so much more dangerous and nerve-wrecking than a Megan Rapinoe corner kick or free kick outside the box.  Poor set piece deliveries and skying high a penalty kick will be the last moments of her stellar WWC career.  

An entertaining first half with saves galore saw 1E-Netherlands get two fortunate goals, one off a rebound and one that went through the GK's hands to make the 2-0 win more comfortable than it should be.  This was the first time 2G-South Africa didn't take the lead (or score) but tried in having more shots (14-12) and shots on goal (7-5) with just 27% possession.  RSA's Thembi Kgatlana had 5 of her 7 shots saved by NED's GK.

Of course, by not winning their group, the SWEvUSA was a 2 am PDT kickoff vs a 7 pm kickoff (NEDvRSA).  And of course, this was the one game the past two days going to extra time, making it a 3-hour game.  Wore my red/white/blue 2014 USA away jersey while casting to my brand new 3-laser short throw projector upstairs (had to move down to my OLED since my son was sleeping upstairs.

34 had SWE and 9 had NED making the quarters but 46 lost USA (including 26 who pegged them as champions).  43 went 1-1 with 4 going 0-2.  No change at the top with Kds911-2 in first (77 pts) and More$ is second (76).  Tiny Destroyer still in last (48).

Finally, I have the possibilities table.   With 11 matches left, just 15 entries have been eliminated, leaving 32 vying for one to the top 4 prize spots.  We don't have enough entries to do a Bonus but should be an interesting finish.  17 can still win first, despite USA (picked by 26), GER (6), and BRA (1) out.  ENG (5), ESP (5), FRA (2), and SWE (2) are still in it.  Leader Kds911-2 has the best chance to win the pool (18.5%) and win money (52.5%).  Of those who can't win the pool, 3am Down Under (22nd-Tied, 69) has the best chance to win money (12.6%).  Flying Elvi is tied for 10th (73) but can't win the pool while GenX99er is tied for 28th but can still be champion.  Panama Red and The Ghost of Mia Hamm each have 67 pts (25th-T) but are eliminated while, ironically, Rapinoe's Last Stand is tied for 39th (62) but can still finish 2nd.

Is it Possible?

Yeah, USA... That was highly improbable.  But what about winning money in the pool?  There are 4 spots up for grabs (no Bonus) for the $470 pot.  Just 15 entries have been eliminated as 32 can still win something.  Despite the top two choices, USA and GER eliminated, three teams (ESP, ENG, SWE) are still alive to win the title which means 17 entries can still win the pool.

There is now a tab above for "Possibilities" and you can see what percent of the 2,048 possible outcomes you can win something.  Kds911-2 (1st, 77 pts) has the best chance to win the pool (18.5%) and money (52.5%).

Trying different ways to speed up Excel but didn't quite work out, thus, this is the debut of the Possibilities table (usually, it's after the Round of 16 when 32,768 possible outcomes are run).

Trouble in the Box (8/5)

UPSTAIRS REVISED ENTERTAINMENT ROOM, HOME, CA - Group A teams 1A-Switzerland and 2A-Norway had lots of trouble clearing balls in the box as 2C-Spain scored all six goals in their 5-1 win over SUI and 1C-Japan scored twice in a controlled 3-1 win over NOR (who also scored twice).  Of course, the goals don't add up as we had two more own goals, giving the tournament a record-tying 8 with 14 more matches to go.  Both SUI and JPN gave up their first goal of the tourney, leaving 2F-Jamaica as the lone team with no allowed goals.  In their last 3 games, SUI has just 11 shots and 4 on goal (zero goals scored).

NOR opened scoring with a great high kick redirect past the GK in the box... unfortunately, it past her own GK for an own goal and give JPN an early 1-0 lead in the 15'.  NOR quickly game back with a great header five minutes later but JPN controlled most of the game and NOR didn't show much life until they went down 3-1 in 81', forcing JPN GK's into a couple of saves.  In a matchup between the closest ranked teams (#11 JPN and #12 NOR) who happen to both be WWC champions (2 of just 4 teams) saw NOR disappoint with both on field and off field issues.

ESP scored 3 times in the first 18 minutes but the second was another own goal (why are defenders so accurate shooting on goal - at their own goal) as SUI didn't have their first shot until the 55' (being outshot 19-0 at the time).  

SUI and NOR had a lot of trouble in their box.  NOR turned it over with an intercepted pass in the box that led to JPN's second goal and of course, NOR's own goal in the box.  SUI could not clear the ball out of their box and when the ball was loose, ESP pounced with a few goals.  It was like watching an indoor soccer game (described as human pinball).   Wore this cool adidas 2023 Japan White Red Special (Player) Jersey Tokyo Edition which is actually great quality (Etsy was also selling these so I was doubtful) finding sushi at H Mart (for some reason, no Japanese markets near me)  Apparently there have been a few of these in the past, even a Dragon Ball version.

33 had ESP in the quarters and 29 had JPN with everyone getting at least 1 of those 2 teams and 15 got both.  Kds911-2 jumped to first place with 72 points with More$ second with 71 pts.  Four are tied with 70 pts.  3am Down Under and Rutin4Putin jumped from a tie for 34th to a tie for 22nd.  Tiny Destroyer still last with 48 pts.

Issue #7.1.6 "Can't Complain" (After Group Stage)

 Archive

Friday, August 4, 2023 

Dailies: Aug 2-3 

GERMANY, BRAZIL OUT; MOROCCO, JAMAICA, SOUTH AFRICA IN
Vlatko Better Win leads with 65 points and 6 lost GER as their champ

H MART, BUENA PARK, CA (smt) --  Living in the Los Angeles area, it is hard to complain about things.  It's been high 80s with 60% humidity which I describe as "pungent hell" (one of the very few times we ever got feedback on our Major League Soccer score sheets in the early days was one time we described the weather at the Rose Bowl as not "sunny" or "humid" or "hot", but our use of "pungent hell" --- the note was quickly followed with "but that's exactly what it felt like" so we had a good laugh), but someone from Boston will say hey, it's 105F and humid here or Orlando will say it's 99% humid here.  LA had like a dozen atmospheric rivers drench the area from December-March but then someone in Tampa will say we had to evacuate due to a hurricane or Vermont is flooded.  We're known for some famous "bad" areas here but them someone from Chicago will talk about constant gun violence.   LA is also famous for smog but can't complain because the Northeast is suffocating under the Canadian wildfire smoke out.  We can only complain about high taxes... anyone top that?  Anyone?  Darn.

African Strong, Asian Disrupters (8/3)

THE SLICE & PINT, EL SEGUNDO, CA - H1-Germany has to stop playing Asian teams in the group stage.  In 2018 WC, Korea Rep beat GER 2-0 to eliminate them from the knockout round in the last match.  In 2022 WC, Japan shocked GER 2-0 in the group stage opener that led to GER missing the knockout stage again.  Now in 2023, H4-KOR sends GER home again, securing a 1-1 draw, that combined with #72 H3-Morocco's 1-0 upset of H1-Colombia, eliminated both teams from the Round of 16.  

The COL "push" heard around the world gave MAR a PK attempt, and although they didn't score directly (the tourney's first miss after 13 straight converted), they put in the rebound in the 45'+4 for the pivotal only goal of the game.  GER's failure means 2E-USA is the only team to make it to knockout stage in every WWC.  COL still clinched 1st in the group despite the loss.  MAR loses 6-0 to GER and then qualifies over GER in the end?  What a crazy tournament.  MAR is the 3rd African team (and 1st Arab nation) to reach the R16, obviously the most ever.  #54 2G-South Africa and #40 2B-Nigeria are already in (all 3 African teams ranked 40 or worse with #77 3C-Zambia the only African nation to not qualify.

Wore my 2014 home Germany jersey with 2014 final lettering in front of our own Wrigley Field wall of ivy and it cursed them.  Speaking of jerseys, 8 teams have a bright yellow (or "orange" or "gold") jersey, way too many.

Tiocfaidh Ár Lá!!! (15th-Tied, 59 pts) was the only one to pick the KORvGER tie and 4 had MAR winning meaning 5 went 1-1 and 42 went 0-2.  Reggae Vibes (6th-T, 62) was the only to have MAR in the R16 and 14 had COL (all 47 missed GER).  Reggae Vibes got 4 of 8 points to move from 13th-T to 6th-T while 28 got 0 of 8. Vlatko Better Win is alone in 1st with 65 points with Kds911 2nd (64).  Tiny Destroyer is still last with 43 pts.

Four got 12 of 16 R16 teams correct while Tiny Destroyer only got 8 teams in.

Complicated Group H

Thanks, Foxsports, for laying out very complicated paths to advancing to the Round of 16 for each of the four teams.  I used to keep track of this in the pool but now just let others do it for me now.  There could be 3 teams with 6 points or 3 teams with 3 points which causes this chaos.  Of course, it could just be simple with COL and GER winning.  And KOR would need to beat GER 5-0 or better to be in the conversation.  But fun to follow.

GROUP H

Colombia — advances to the Round of 16 if it wins or draws against Morocco, OR if it loses to Morocco and Germany draws or loses to South Korea, OR if it loses to Morocco and Germany defeats South Korea (and Colombia advances on tiebreakers over either Morocco or Germany).
Colombia — wins the group if it wins or draws against Morocco, OR if it loses to Morocco AND Germany defeats South Korea (and it wins tiebreakers over Germany and Morocco), OR if it loses to Morocco AND Germany draws or loses to South Korea (and it wins tiebreakers over Morocco).
Colombia — is eliminated if it loses to Morocco AND Germany defeats South Korea (and it loses tiebreakers to Germany and Morocco).

Germany — advances to the Round of 16 if it defeats South Korea AND Colombia wins or draws against Morocco, OR if it defeats South Korea AND Morocco defeats Colombia (and it wins tiebreakers over either Morocco or Colombia), OR if it loses to South Korea AND Colombia defeats Morocco (and it wins tiebreakers over Morocco and South Korea), OR if it draws South Korea AND Colombia defeats Morocco, OR if it draws South Korea AND Colombia draws Morocco (and it wins tiebreakers over Morocco).
Germany — wins the group if it defeats South Korea AND Morocco defeats Colombia (and it wins tiebreakers over Morocco and Colombia).
Germany — is eliminated if it loses to South Korea AND Colombia defeats Morocco (and it loses tiebreakers to either Morocco or South Korea), OR if it loses to South Korea AND Colombia draws or loses to Morocco, OR if it draws South Korea and Morocco defeats Colombia, OR if it defeats South Korea AND Morocco defeats Colombia (and it loses tiebreakers to Morocco and Colombia).

Morocco — advances to the Round of 16 if it defeats Colombia AND Germany defeats South Korea (and it wins tiebreakers over either Germany or Colombia), OR if it defeats Colombia AND South Korea defeats or draws Germany, OR if it draws Colombia AND South Korea defeats Germany, OR if it loses to Colombia AND South Korea defeats Germany (and it wins tiebreakers over Germany and South Korea).
Morocco — wins the group if it defeats Colombia AND Germany draws or loses to South Korea (and it wins tiebreakers over Colombia), OR if it defeats Colombia AND Germany defeats South Korea (and it wins tiebreakers over Colombia and Germany).
Morocco — is eliminated if it loses to Colombia AND Germany wins or draws against South Korea, OR if it loses to Colombia AND South Korea defeats Germany (and it loses tiebreakers to either Germany or South Korea), OR if it draws Colombia AND Germany defeats South Korea, OR if it draws Colombia AND Germany draws South Korea (and it loses tiebreakers to Germany), or if it defeats Colombia AND Germany defeats South Korea (and it loses tiebreakers to Germany and Colombia).

South Korea — advances to the Round of 16 if it defeats Germany AND Colombia defeats Morocco (and it wins tiebreakers over Germany and Morocco).
South Korea — cannot win the group.
South Korea — is eliminated if it draws or loses to Germany, OR if it defeats Germany AND Colombia draws or loses to Morocco.

37 and Over (8/2)

WAITING FOR SON'S FINAL VAC SHOT (MenB), CERRITOS, CA - Two more teams ranked #37 or worse made the Round of 16 as #54 G2-South Africa (2G) came back to eliminate G3-Italy, 3-2, with a 90'+1 game-winner and #43 F2-Jamaica (2F) held F3-Brazil to a nil-nil draw to advance over the Brazilians.  They join #40 2B-Nigeria in the knockout stage.

RSA blew a lead for the 3rd straight game (led 1:0 SWE and lost 2-1, led 2-0 ARG and tied 2-2), but this time, after coming back from 1-0 to lead 2-1, they again gave up the tying goal 7 minutes later in the 74'.  But this time, they kept at it and was rewarded with a great goal in the 1st minute of stoppage time as the dancing began again.  ITA just needed a tie and fell short (but not as bad as the men's team, which failed to qualify for the last 2 World Cups).  Wore my 2010 home ITA GK jersey in front our expensive sago tree (1 of 2) and it didn't help as ITA scored on itself (for RSA's first goal) in the 32'.  I don't know why defenders are so good shooting on goal at their OWN goal instead of the opponent's (usually sky high).

37 is also the age of the legendary BRA striker, Marta (so glad got to see her many times doing stats for the LA Sol in 2009 - I actually have that jersey and may wear it during one of the off days), who started but couldn't produce in 81 minutes in her 6th, and likely final, WWC.  If you were to say JAM would allow no goals this tournament, with #5 F1-France (1F) and #8 BRA in their group, you'd be crazy.  Asylum-level paranoia.  And JAM qualified scoring just one goal... one.  And had ZERO shots on goal against BRA.  

G1-Sweden (1G) made 9 changes to their usual starting lineup and still took care of business, beating G4-Argentia, 2-0.  In just, let's play for fun, FRA won their set, 6-3, over F4-Panama, who scored their first 3 goals of the tournament, at one point cutting the deficit to 5-3 in the 87'.  The match featured 3 penalty kicks (all made, extending the WWC streak to 13 consecutive makes) and a hat trick for FRA's Kadidiatou Diani.

8 more points up for grabs as Group H concludes starting at 3 am PDT (get used to that).

Group G concluded with 35 getting SWE's win and 4 RSA's win with Of-Course-it's-US (37th-Tied, 52 pts) getting both correct.  Nine got both wrong.  45 had SWE in the Round of 16 while Rutin4Putin (41st-T, 51) and TroJenn (44th-T, 50) each got RSA with the former the only one to have both SWE and RSA in their R16.  Tiny Destroyer was the only one to miss both teams.  Rutin4Putin got 7 of 8 possible points while Tiny Destroyer got 0 of 8.

Group F concluded with 44 getting FRA's win and Merman (27th-T, 55) the only one picking the draw between JAMvBRA.  Merman was the only one to go 2-0 while three went 0-2.  All 47 had FRA in their R16 and 4 had JAM.  Four got both teams while the other 43 got one.  Flying Elvi, Mauihammy (35th-T, 53), Bean (24th-T, 56), and Kung Fu Master Kai each got 7 of 8 possible points while Eggman 2 (13th-T, 58), TroJenn, and TroJenn2 (44th-T) each got just 3 of 8.

Overall, five got 11 of 16 points and Tiny Destroyer only got 4 of 16.  Flying Elvi moved from a tie for 6th to sole possession of 1st (63 pts).  Hawkeye and Vlatko Better Win dropped to a tie for 2nd (62) and Kds911 and More$ are tied for 4th (61).  Tiny Destroyer returns back to last place with 40 points, 6 points off 46th place Kung Fu Master Kai.

Issue #6.1.5 "Let's Reset" (After 42 Matches)

 Archive

Tuesday, August 1, 2023 
Dailies: Jul 30-31 Aug 1 

START STRONG, LITTLE DRAMA... EXCEPT FOR USA-PORTUGAL
Hawkeye and Vlatko Better Win take over 1st with 5 groups complete

HOME, CA (smt) --  After 42 matches, Groups A, B, C, D, and E are complete, leaving 10 teams fighting for the final 5 Round of 16 spots.  Needing to win and leave no doubt, B1-Australia (1A) scored in the 9' and whipped B4-Canada, 4-0, in a battle of top 10 teams, A2-Norway (2A) scored in the 6' to demolish A3-Philippines, 6-0, C4-Japan (1C) scored in the 12' to embarrass #6 C1-Spain (2C), 4-0, to top Group C, E3-Netherlands (1E) scored in the 8' to wallop my wife's home country of E2-Vietnam, 7-0, and D1-England (1D) found their scoring touch scoring in the 4' to blow out #14 D4-China PR, 6-1.  AUS, NOR, NED, ENG left nothing to chance with their blowouts while JPN took their few opportunities (8 shots/6 on goal) to win Group C.  D3-Denmark (2D) opened scoring "late" in the 21' to beat D2-Haiti, 2-0, to advance.  In the one match that didn't matter, C3-Zambia scored their first-ever WWC goal in the 3' in beating C2-Costa Rica, 3-1.  So very little drama in these games and spots were secured without any nervousness.

Saved by the Post (8/1)

HOME, CA - Geez, didn't think I would need to pull out a USA jersey this early, choosing the 2019 authentic home jersey post-WWC win with FIFA winners badge and 4th gold star as E1-USA still had not clinched a spot in the
Round of 16.  Got a pic with the USA flag waving outside the Boys & Girls Club in Cypress where my son was having a Boy Scouts meeting.  Seems like this jersey just provided the 2-3 inches to make the ball bounce off the post instead of in the goal ;-)

Again, an inspired first few minutes quickly gave way to stagnant play for the rest of the game and it brought back bad memories of Sunday's LA Galaxy Leagues Cup match as passes were intercepted, quick plays forward gave way to wayward passes too long, tiring out our players.  I love Alex Morgan, but every time they show her she just looks tired and exhausted and, gulp, old?  With no chance to catch E3-Netherlands, who led 3-0 within 20 minutes en route to a 7-0 thrashing of E2-Vietnam, USA just needed to see the draw, yet, there was no running into the corner to draw a foul, no quick passing in the back trying to draw E4-Portugal out (who needed to win), just lots of running and bad passing that POR quickly recovered on.

And the final scoresheet will show POR with zero shots on goal but the one breakaway POR had, the shot was rifled past USA's GK and hit off the right post in the 90'+1, saving USA's bacon.  This was the first time USA did not win at least two games in the group stage in surviving the 0-0 draw.  FOX hyped up this would be the greatest upset ever but POR was ranked #21 and only allowed one goal to NED, who is ranked #9.  The biggest upset would be not qualifying at all but luckily, USA did, but as 2nd in Group E.  The criticism came hard and fast (see this post :-) with Carli Lloyd's being the most liked and bantered around.

How lucky is 2C-Spain, who didn't win their group as expected but now avoids #12 1A-Norway in R16 and if they win, avoids USA in Quarterfinals.  Maybe 1C-Japan shouldn't have won.

In Group D, D1-England finally found their mojo in beating D4-China PR, 6-1 to win the group and D3-Denmark took care of business beating D2-Hati, 2-0, to take second.

Group E concluded with only Rutin4Putin getting the USAvPOR draw.  43 picked NED's win as 43 went 1-1 and 4 went 0-2.  All 46 who had USA in the Round of 16 had them as 1E, not 2E, but it doesn't matter as it is 3 points regardless and the downside is your bracket is now upside down.  42 had NED in R16 as 41 got both R16 teams and 6 got 1 of 2.  39 got 7 of 8 possible points while Of-Course-it's-US only got 3 of 8.

Group D concluded with 35 getting both ENG (picked by 36) and DEN (44) wins while TroJenn and TroJenn2 missed both.  46 had ENG in the R16 and 31 DEN with 31 getting both and 16 getting 1 of 2.  25 got all 8 points in Group D while TroJenn and TroJenn2 only got 3 of 8.

Combined, 23 got 15 of 16 possible points while Rutin4Putin and Kung Fu Master Kai each got 8 of 16.  Hawkeye and Vlatko Better Win are still tied for first with 54 points with Kds911, Kona Coast Sliders, and More$ tied for 3rd with 53.  Kung Fu Master Kai takes over last with 35 points.

Just Win Not Draw (7/31)

BOYS & GIRLS CLUB, BOY SCOUTS, CYPRESS, CA - Co-Host B1-Australia needed to win to guarantee a spot in the Round of 16 while B4-Canada needed just a draw so it was AUS coming on hot getting a VAR assisted goal in the 9' en route to a 4-0 win, eliminating the defending Olympic Champions as B3-Nigeria just needed to lose not as badly as CAN, and drew B2-Rep of Ireland, 0-0 to clinch 2nd.  

Earlier, C2-Japan needed to win to win Group C while C1-Spain just needed a draw or win.  JPN let ESP have all the passing (925 to 625) and possession (68%-21%) and on their first three attacks/counterattacks into the final third, great finishing put JPN up 3-0 before the half.  A great 4th goal after wresting the ball from the sideline made the final score 4-0 as JPN finished the group with 11 goals with no goals allowed.  C3-Zambia, ranked #77, broke through with 3 goals in beating C2-Costa Rica, 3-1.  ZAM's second goal off a PK was the WWC's 1000th goal scored.  

I really needed to get the stink of watching the LA Galaxy blow a late 1-0 and lose 2-1 off an own goal and deflected blocked shot to Vancouver as LAG blew chance after chance.  JPN, had just 8 shots, 6 on goal, and scored 4.  Each one was just a breakaway where you saw the play build up (like most times) but with precision finishing.  Think of JPN's slash line of 8/6/4 compared to ESP's first match of 46/14/2 (one was an own goal).  Efficient.  Wore my 2012 JPN home jersey, the women's one with the pink line ("All Support for Japan"), 2011 WWC winners patch, and gold star while admiring the beautiful dusk after that crappy game in Carson.

E1-USA only needs to draw to advance... not a good omen (see CAN and ESP above) and if they do win but lose on goal differential to E3-Netherlands (let's hope E2-Vietnam's 5'-5" GK keeps playing like a superstar), a #1 v #3 R16 matchup with G1-Sweden is a high possibility.

Group C concluded with Kds911 (3rd-Tied, 38 pts) the only one to pick both JPN and ZAM to win and with 46 having ESP in R16 and 45 JPN, the only one to pick up all 8 points in Group C.  31 went 0-2 and three just got ESP or JPN, but not both.  44 got both.  Leader Eggman 2 (3rd-T) and last place Tiny Destroyer (47th, 24) each only got 3 of 8 points.

Group B concluded with BigRedMessiUSA (19th-T, 35) and More$ (3rd-T) the only two to get both AUS's win (picked by 20) and CRC-NGR draw (6).  23 went 0-2.  All 47 had AUS (barely) in their R16 but no one had NGR (45 lost CAN), meaning BigRedMesssiUSA and More$ got 5 of 8 points in Group B while 23 got 3 of 8.  

Combined, Hawkeye and Vlatko Better Win are tied for first with 39 points with six tied for 3rd with 38.  

Issue #5.1.4 "First Points" (After 32 Matches)

 Archive

Sunday, July 30, 2023 

Dailies: July 28-29-30 

JAMAICA, SOUTH AFRICA, MOROCCO PICK UP FIRST-EVER POINTS; GERMANY FALTERS
Eggman 2 remains in the lead with 23 points of 32 possible

CARSON, CA (smt) --  After 32 matches, each team has played two matches each (even though Group A got a head start, finishing their 3rd matches a half hour before H1-Germany vs H3-Colombia started).  H2-Morocco, F2-Jamaica, and G2-South Africa picked up their first ever WWC points joining E4-Portugal and A3-Philippines earlier this week.  MAR got an early 6' goal to beat H4-Korea Rep, 1-0, to stay alive in Group H.  In a rare battle between two CONCACAF teams in the group stage, #43 JAM edged out #52 F4-Panama to stay alive and eliminate the Panamanians. #54 RSA led 2-0 in the 66' but G4-Argentina scored twice in 5 minutes to end it on a 2-2 draw, RSA's first-ever point. 

While D1-England struggles to score, they still are winning, and with D4-China PR's VAR-infected 1-0 win over D2-Haiti, all four Group D matches ended in a 1-0 score line.  #5 F1-France, which opened with a lackluster 0-0 draw with JAM, finally showed up outlasting #8 F3-Brazil, 2-1 and G3-Sweden, who had to come from behind to beat RSA in their opener, showed they are the #3 team in the world in destroying #16 G3-Italy, 5-0 with three goals off corner kicks (4 for SWE in tournament).  #2 GER had a chance to assert themselves further after their earlier 6-0 win over MAR, but fell behind to #25 COL and then lost on a 90'+7 stoppage time goal (you guessed it, off a corner kick), which kept KOR alive.  The rockin' stadium full of Colombian fans has seen COL upset the two teams above them and now face #72 MAR to try to clinch Group H.

Stoppage Time Game Winner (7/30)

HOME, CA - Let's start of with Group H, which were the buns to the meat of Group A for some reason.  The day started with H2-Morocco scoring on a diving header in the 6' that stood up for their first-ever win, beating H4-Korea Rep, 1-0.  The #73 ranked team nearly held KOR with zero shots on goal (FIFA after the match had KOR with 14 shots, none on goal; ESPN had 17 shots, 3 on goal; FIFA corrected itself to 17-1) to stay alive in Group H. 

The day ended with a shocking H3-Colombian 2-1 upset of #2 H1-Germany on a wicked header off a corner kick in the 7th minute of stoppage time (only +6 was revealed).  GER had tied in on a PK in the 89' but the Colombian fans were passionate and loud in the stadium to help put COL on top of the group.  COL, who upset KOR earlier, actually kept KOR alive with the win, as a GER win/draw would have eliminated the South Koreans.  All four teams are still alive.

In between the Group H matches, Group A had their final stage and A2-Norway, scoreless through two matches, needed a big win and they got it, routing A3-Philippines, 6-0, to take second.  Co-host A1-New Zealand, needing to win after NOR went up 3-0 at halftime, could not push through despite their GK helping (and getting a shot) in the 7 minutes of stoppage time.  A4-Switzerland, needing just a draw, got it with the tourney's 4th nil-nil draw to win Group A.  NZL becomes the first WWC host (maybe B1-Australia is next?) to not make the knockout stage and did it in the most improbable way - beating #12 NOR, tying #20 SUI, and losing to #49 PHI.  What could've been, and hopefully the Kiwis will still support the rest of the WWC.

With four GER players and one NOR player playing for FC Bayen München, wore my 2021 home FC Bayen München jersey, complete with 5th star (30th title), UCL 6 starball, and 2020 FIFA World Champion patch.  Those palm leaves are getting HUGE!

Looking at just Group H matches, Firewire (38th-Tied, 17 pts) and last place Tiny Destroyer (13) were the only two to pick both upsets COL (picked by 2) and MAR (picked by 7).  Eggman 2 was one of 38 to go 0-2 in Group H but keeps first (23). 

With Groups concluding, you now get the 3 points per R16 team.  Group A saw 23 get both SUI and NOR into the R16 while the other 14 got just 1 of 2.  All 47 got NOR's win and 9 got the SUIvNZL draw correct.  Five entries got the full 8 points in Group A while 19 got just 4 points. 

For the whole day (Groups A and H), five entries got 8 points and 13 got 4 points.  Eggman 2 is still in first (31) with Hawkeye second (29).