African Breakthrough (12/10)

HOME -- For the first time, an African nation is advancing to the semi-finals as 1F-Morocco got a leaping header (even over an outstretched POR GK) late in the first half that held up to stun 1H-Portugal, 1-0, to join fellow Group F team 2F-Croatia.  After scoring 6 in the Round of 16, POR had lots of possession but could not break through a MAR defense that has not allowed a goal yet (their only goal allowed was an own goal for CAN).  MAR also doubles as the de facto host nation representing the Arab nation of Qatar (who finished #32 of 32 teams).  MAR is 7-0-3 in their last 10 matches, their last loss -- to USA on June 1.  MAR has also not allowed a goal (except for the own goal) in their last 9 matches.  

In a clash of giants, one heck of an entertaining match with 1D-France prevailing 2-1 over 1B-England where FRA's GK was busy for the first time (he didn't play in the loss vTUN).  FRA converted early on a very long strike from outside before ENG tied it on Harry Kane's PK in the 54'.  FRA went ahead in the 78' but then FRA committed an unnecessary push in the box where VAR had to get involved because it was so obvious.  But Harry Kane's second PK attempt was skied over the crossbar in the 84'.  

Whereas yesterday saw the underdog score on their only shots on goal, today's shot totals were more even in both matches (on goal: ENG 6-5, MAR & POR 3 each).  MAR has already won more games this tourney than in all previous tourneys (3 vs 2).  

While I was in St. Louis, I found out Panera Bread started out there as St. Louis Bread Company, but interestingly, except for the outside sign saying "St. Louis Bread Co." (all St. Louis stores have this sign), everything inside is Panera-branded.  So, while wearing my 2013 ENG home 150th anniversary jersey at my local Panera Bread to grab my free drink (Sip Club).

In the pool, no one had MAR in the semi-finals but 57 did pick FRA (and 52 got none).  Overall, Indy Ari and Free Merman (17th, 99 pts) got 3 of 4 SFs while 12 got none and can't get any more points.  Indy Ari still leads with 106 points with Soccerbix and The Gambler 1 behind with 105 each.  Meli clinched last place with 60 pts as Markofthebeast moved to 108th with FRA's win.

Soccerbix clinched at least 4th and has a 50/50 chance to win the pool for the second time ('98).  A total of 6 can still win the pool with 16 (!) that can still finish in the money.  Bwakewey 2 and Mimi are tied for 4th (104) but can't finish higher than 4th while Danish Dynamite is tied for 37th (92) but can still win the pool.  Mezlove is tied for 10th (101) but is eliminated while Kona Coast Uno is tied for 47th but can still finish 2nd.  The Final Four possibilities are also listed along with tiebreaker scenarios (some of the 16 may lose out on a tiebreaker for 5th and finish out of the money).

Eagle-eyed viewers will have already seen what the top 5 prize breakdowns are but will talk about it more tomorrow or Monday along with what this "$40 Bonus" is.

Late Comebacks & Heartache (12/9)

EL SEGUNDO, CA -- Two South American teams had leads late and both allowed European teams to rally and tie.  Only one overcame heartache to win.  

The #1 team in the world, 1G-Brazil, came off of dancing in the Round of 16 to struggle yet again on offense despite 20 shots.  In extra time, a couple of give-and-gos and great touch around the GK, provided a dramatic goal by Neymar as first half extra time expired.  Neymar's 77th goal for BRA tied him with Pele but the goal affected the team in the second half of extra time as they were confused, being passive, show-boating, and driving forward and that lack of defending focus allowed 2F-Croatia to counter with their first shot on goal slightly deflected and going into the net in the 117'.  

CRO's second straight comeback (third of this WC) sent the match to their second straight penalty shootout, a spot CRO is feeling comfortable having now played 4 in the last two WCs.  CRO's GK made another save (4th in the two PSOs) and with the PSO 4-2 in favor of CRO, BRA hit the left post, sending CRO to their second straight semifinal.  It'll be the "doink" heard around the world.  Neymar didn't even shoot as there was no fifth round of PSO.

6 of CRO's last 7 major tournament knockout matches have gone to extra time, and CRO is 4-0 if it goes to the PSO.  BRA has lost to a European team in the knockout stage in five straight WCs since their title in 2002.  

Issue #6.2.1 "That Would Be Me" (After Round of 16)

 Archive

Wednesday, December 7, 2022  ***NATIONAL PEARL HARBOR REMEMBRANCE DAY***

IT'S THE USUAL SUSPECTS BUT MOROCCO CUTS IN LINE
Five tied for 1st; 57 entries still alive and 21 can win the pool

HILTON AT THE BALLPARK, SAINT LOUIS, MO (smt) -- After a fun and crazy group stage that saw teams like 1E-Japan and 1F-Morocco win their groups and four-time champion E3-Germany,  two-time champion (4 if you include pre-WC Olympic titles) H3-Uruguay, and #2 F1-Belgium eliminated, the Round of 16 was shaping up to be a Europe/South America vs North America/Africa/Asia competition.  But the soccer powers rose in stature but there would be one team that defied the odds to make the Quarterfinals.  That would be MAR. 

While favorites 1A-Netherlands (3-1 over 2B-USA - where USA had more possession and shots, but couldn't finish while NED were precision strikes), 1G-Brazil (4-1 over 2H-Korea Rep - Neymar returning for a PK goal), 1B-England (3-0 over 2A-Senegal), 1D-France (3-1 over 2C-Poland - Kylian Mbappe getting his 2nd brace), and 1H-Portugal (6-1 over 2G-Swiss - Goncalo Ramos netting the tourney's 1st hat trick) all rode multi-goal easy victories and 1C-Argentina controlling a 2-1 win over 2D-Australia (where ARG scored for AUS, the tourney's 3rd own goal), you would expect 2E-Spain to have an easy time over MAR.  Even 2018 runner-up 2F-Croatia was able to keep European power in play easily winning in the penalty shootout 3-1 (1-1 draw) over JPN thanks to GK Dominik Lilakovic's three (3!) PK saves.

ESP nearly had 1,000 completed passes and yet just had one shot on goal as MAR battled them to a 0-0 tie after extra time, the tourney's 7th nil-nil draw.  In penalties, MAR GK Yassine Bounou saved 2 PKs and went the right way on another (where ESP hit the right post) to help his team seal a 3-0 PSO win, the last goal by Achraf Hakimi, born in Spain, with a hard panenka down the middle. 

Ronaldo Who? (12/6)

SAINT LOUIS, MO -- How many TV shots were there on 1H-Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo in the yellow sub jersey?  Well, his replacement Goncalo Ramos only scored a hat trick as POR routed 2G-Switzerland 6-1.  POR scored 6 goals on just 13 shots (9 were on goal) including some wicked strikes.  Ronaldo did come in as a sub but his future is uncertain if the team keeps playing well without him.

While favorites were dominating save 2018 runner-up 2F-Croatia who won in Penalty Shootout, 2E-Spain garnered 68% possession (with in-contest) and 13 shots, but just put one on goal.  1F-Morocco, surprise winners of Group F, were patient as ESP passed the ball around and had a good number of chances, but after 120 minutes, the match was the 7th 0-0 draw.  In PSO, MAR's GK saved 2 of 3 shots with the other hitting the right post as MAR hit 3 of 4, the latter game-winner right up the middle (a hard panenka, I guess) from a player born in Spain.

Flew out to St. Louis for a work technical information meeting and I allegedly have a view of the Arch, except it was rainy and foggy so you could only see some UFO lights in the sky.  But Busch Stadium is nearby and it was a good walk late at night.  Wore my replica 2012 ESP home jersey with the 2008 Euro champion patch.  I did not wear it at LAX's Delta Sky Club but watched as ESP took 3 tepid PKs.

58 got POR and two actually picked MAR (FTRxBigJim (22nd-Tied, 86 pts) and Inconceivable! (42nd-T, 80)) into the Quarters.  FTRxBigJim was the only one to get both MAR and POR while 50 got none.  Five are now tied for first with 91 points with 5 more tied with 90.  Markofthebeast is still last with 57 pts.

The Gambler 1 (1st-T) has the best chance to win the pool (14.1%) with Soccerbix (1st-T) the best chance to win money (34.4%).  21 can still win the pool and 57 can still finish in the top 5 money spots.  FTRxBigJim is tied for 22nd but can't win money while Kicking it Old School is tied for 88th (72) but can still win the pool.  Tiny Destroyer is tied for 6th but can't win the pool.

Depth (12/5)

CYPRESS, CA - One thing that separates the European and South American teams from the rest of the world is their depth.  2F-Croatia rallied to tie 1E-Japan early 1-1 in the second half and then subbed judiciously, even replacing their scorer, to wear down the JPN pressure in extra time.  JPN seemed to settle for the penalty kick shootout and that is not what should have happened, because the PSO is not a 50/50 chance, experience plays a big role.  Two of the 3 PSO scorers for CRO were substitutes and CRO's towering GK made not 1, not 2, but 3 saves to help CRO win another PSO, 3-1, to advance to the quarterfinals.

1G-Brazil which had the luxury of resting all their starters in their 3rd match (even their GK who had faced zero shots on goal in 2 matches) ran all over 2H-Korea Republic in the first half, scoring four goals, three of the pretty kind and one PK by Neymar, who returned from injury.  After each goal, BRA were dancing in choreographed moves, which after a bit, seemed like they were stomping on the dead, who hadn't died yet.  KOR did manage to get a goal in the 76' to prevent the shutout.

But just as you are ready to brand BRA the villains of this WC, they bring out a touching tribute and banner for Pele, who was hospitalized.  Great gesture.

Easy Peasey (12/4)

HOME - 1D-France and 1B-England cruised to victories with with FRA beating 2C-Poland 3-1 and ENG shutting out 2A-Senegal 3-0.  This sets up a European clash in the quarterfinal as the soccer giants regain control of this WC.

For the second time in this WC, Kylian Mbappe scored 2 goals with two precision strikes.  POL had a double-chance early but came out empty and five minutes later FRA scored.  A VAR review gave POL a PK and Robert Lewandowski's attempt was saved, but his stutter made the GK come off the line early and VAR confirmed a retake.  Lewy made no mistake this time in the 90'+9' putting POL on the board.

SEN came out strong like USA but couldn't put their chances away and ENG scored one and then the dagger in first-half stoppage (like what NED did to USA).  

Wore my authentic 2008 ENG home jersey, a Beckham #7.  Also, got a Douglas fir tree yesterday and my daughter and wife did a great job decorating it after my son and I struggled to get the thick trunk into the stand and then into the house!

I still have to work out some kinks in the possibilities (coming from Euro 2021 where there were just 36 matches instead of 48, it affected the point totals but won't really make a difference in who is alive).

Kankleiscious now has a 3-point lead with 84 points with DDubs and Swerveman tied for 2nd.  Markofthebeast is last with 52 pts.  91 had ENG and 83 had FRA.  72 got both FRA and ENG while 7 missed both.  Overall, 49 are 4-0 in the R16 while 16 are 2-2.

In the possibilities run, I had to adjust from Euro (36 group matches) to WC (48).  That meant 3 extra entries can win the pool and one more can win money.  So 77 can win money and 46 can still win the pool.  The Gambler (4th-T, 80) has the best chance for both (18.7% and 36.4%).

8192 Possibilities

So there is a new tab at the top of the page.  It's the "Possibilities" page where you can find out if your entry(s) are eliminated from finishing in the Top 5 or not.  This is unofficial as I still need to very the logic hasn't changed.  It shows my main entry (Kurat Alqadam Fab 13) is eliminated and my second entry (Arabian Bribes) still has a chance for 2nd.  Overall, 87 of 109 entries are still alive thanks to most of the big powers making the Round of 16 (sorry, GER & BEL).  The Gambler has the best chance for 1st (16.0%) and Fabio has the best chance to win money (35.5%).

The possibilities above are after yesterday's R16 matches (NED, ARG).  Updated possibilities and standings tonight.

Issue #5.1.4 "The Axe Forgets" (After Group Stage)

Archive

Friday, December 2, 2022  

GHANA AND USA EXTRACT REVENGE, BEL & GER OUT
Kankleiscious is alone in 1st; no eliminations until end of Round of 16

WORK FROM HOME (smt) -- Although it has been 24 years since B2-IR Iran shocked B3-USA and 12 years since H2-Ghana lost in Quarters to H3-Uruguay on a sure game-winning goal nullified by a blatant handball by Luis Suarez, there is an African proverb that is used in Star Wars: Andor - the axe forgets but the tree remembers.  USA battled political questions at press conferences and US Soccer sabotaging players and survived IRN 1-0 to advance to the Round of 16 for the 4th time in their last 5 WCs.  A first-half goal on a crushing run by Christian Pulisic was just enough to erase the 1998 memories.  GHA, after going down 2-0 early with slim hopes of advancing, bunkered down and played spoiler, preventing URU from the R16-clinching 3rd goal as URU may have won 2-0 but were eliminated.  Like the 2010 QF vURU, GHA missed a PK that started their downfall.

While just 11% of teams who lose their first match make the R16, 3 of the first 5 teams (60%) advanced (A3-Senegal, C1-Argentina, D2-Australia).  The last 6 teams did not make it so it ended up being 3/11 (27.3%).  On the flip side, just 16% of teams who win their first match fail to qualify and 2 of the first 5 (40%) did miss out (A2-Ecuador, C2-Saudi Arabia).  Just 1 of the final 6 teams failed to qualify (F1-Belgium, ending that Golden Generation) so it ended up being 3/11 as well (27.3%).  5 teams (C3-Mexico, D4-Tunisia, E3-Germany, G4-Cameroon, and URU) did win their last match but also failed to qualify. 

A4-Netherlands and B1-England picked up easy wins while 3 teams who had already clinched lost (D1-France 0-1 to TUN, G1-Brazil 0-1 to CMR, and H1-Portugal 1-2 to H4-Korea Republic).  ENG actually finished with the best record (7 pts, GD+7) as no team won 3 games for the first time since 1994.  There was just one tie in the last 16 matches (F4-Croatia 0-0 to BEL).