Issue #1.0.1 "Nobody's Listening!"

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Wednesday, November 9, 2022 
Issue #1.0.1 "Nobody's Listening!"
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ITALY BACK-TO-BACK FAILURES, BRAZIL BACK TO #1
Our 7th World Cup pool in the late autumn will test if anyone's listening

EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt) --  The World Cup is a premier summer event but not this one.  When FIFA awarded Qatar the World Cup back in 2010, the country's average summer temperatures over 40 deg Celsius (104 deg F) forced FIFA to move the World Cup to winter (well, technically fall) to avoid the heat.  This messed up most of the world's domestic league's schedules (except Major League Soccer, which had their wild MLS Cup season-ender November 5) and add to it the controversies of Qatar hosting, who knew the World Cup will soon be upon us?  Can the World Cup coverage in America break though the noise and be heard with the NFL and college football in full swing (both conflicting with FOX's World Cup broadcasts), seasons underway in the NBA and NHL, and college basketball soon to start?

Qatar will feature eight stadiums all condensed within 34-miles of each other, four set kickoff times (2 am, 5 am, 8 am, and 11 am in the Pacific Standard Time), a short 29-day window, and again no gil Azzurri.

For the second straight World Cup, it will be missing 4-time champ #6-Italy which suffered an embarrassing 1-0 loss to #65-North Macedonia in one of the UEFA semi-finals.  However, #16 B3-USA bounced back from missing the World Cup in 2018 to actually make Pot 2 of the World Cup draw (avoids two top tier teams in the group).  Unfortunately, with #19 B4-Wales winning the playoff to be put in Pot 4, the USA will face #5 B1-England, Wales, and #20 B2-Iran in the only group with all four teams in the top 20.  The other 7 groups each have two teams outside the top 20.  So ENG's Group B is the closest to a Group of Death but there really isn't one this year.  Group D (#4 D1-France and #10 D3-Denmark) and E (#7 E1-Spain and #11 E3-Germany) each have two clear top teams with #8 A4-Netherlands lucky to land in Group A with #18 A3-Senegal, #44 A2-Ecuador, and host #50 A1-Qatar.  H2-Ghana is the worst-ranked team at #61.

Europe Takes Out Asia (6/25)

This is turning about to be the pseudo-2019 edition of the quadrennial UEFA Women's EURO.  Seven of the 8 Quarter-finalists (QF) hail from UEFA with the 1F-USA the lone invader.  Maybe we should do a HWCI pool on that, as the 2021 year is barren (2020 Men's EURO, 2022 Men's WC, 2023 Women's WC).  And in looking at the UEFA Women's EURO 2017 which featured 16 teams, only one match was a complete blowout (Scotland lost 6-0 but they made this year's WWC) so UEFA could lobby for 12 teams in the 2023 WWC and still be competitive (unlike AFC's 5th team (THA), Concacaf's 3rd team (JAM), and Oceania (NZL)).

With all the negativity surrounding this year's WWC (salary disputes, insensitive celebrations, lack of interest by FIFA and national federations, VAR, low attendance, unsportswomanlike conduct, political takes), it's great to see that after a match, great traditions of exchanging jerseys (like a few of the ESP and USA women did -- thank goodness for sports bras) and consoling an opponent after a tough loss are still in great supply.

Topsy Turvy (6/18)

C1-Australia's Sam Kerr pounced on a C4-Jamaica GK mistake in the 83' and her 4th goal of the match proved to be the difference in securing 2nd place in Group C and facing 2A-Norway with a 4-1 win.  While C2-Italy and C3-Brazil were tied, AUS was comfortably in 2nd but a BRA PK by Marta (now the all-time WC, men's or women's, goal scorer with 17 passing GER's Miraslav Klose) in the 74' had put BRA into 2nd.  So despite BRA beating ITA 1-0 and both having 6 points (along with AUS), ITA takes 1st on goal differential and AUS takes 2nd on goals scored, leaving BRA to face either 1A-France or 1B-Germany.  Yikes.  Of course, had BRA scored again and won 2-0, they would have taken 1st (GD and GF with ITA would have been equal (both beat AUS on GD), so head-to-head comes into play).

Four UEFA Teams In (6/14)

C2-Italy routed C4-Jamaica 5-0 to advance to the Round of 16.  A double VAR sequence saw it first used to reverse a non-call and gave a penalty kick to ITA in the 9'.  On the PK, JAM's young GK saved it in the 11' but was off her line and VAR gave the infraction and on the retake, ITA converted for the first goal in the 12'.  This seemed egregious upon live view but I forget the GK can move as long as he/she has a foot on the line.  Clearly, she didn't but ignoring she was way off center, it was only by 10 inches or less.  Watching another PK from today, the GK was behind the line and timed it run up to the line so she had a foot on it when the PK was taken (not successful BTW).  JAM has allowed back-to-back hat tricks against them and now have a -8 Goal Differential.

Defensive Lapses (6/9)

Should I stay or should I go?  C1-Australia's GK on a long free kick started to come out to the ball but then stopped allowing a header which weakly got past her and into the net for the game-winner in the 90'+5.  AUS's defense also allowed the tying goal as a bad touch out of the back was stolen by C2-Italy who scored to tie the game at 1.  This match I woke for around 5:40 in the morning and watching the last 10 minutes I really liked how AUS was playing (not knowing ITA had 2 goals taken away by offsides, one by a hair) but it was a soft foul in their end that allowed the free kick that led to the game-winner.  For a team that got trounced 3-0 by NED in their last game, I guess this was not unexpected.  First upset of the tourney.

C3-Brazil was riding a 9-game losing streak but

Issue #1.0.1 "Six Sigma Not Enough for USA"

Archive

Sunday, June 10, 2018 ***HAPPY BIRTHDAY WIFEY***

IMPROBABLE BUT NOW POSSIBLE, USA AND ITALY ARE OUT
Our 6th World Cup pool arrives late but will still be six-sigma of fun

JET PROPULSION LABORATORY, PASADENA, CA (smt) --  There will be no Red, White, and Blue nor Gli Azzurri (snapping a streak of 14 straight World Cups) nor Clockwork Orange (who also missed 2016 EURO) in the World Cup in Russia.  All three teams will watch from the sidelines as 32 teams vie for the 21st World Cup including newcomers D2-Iceland (which beat G4-England at Euro 2016 and is the smallest population nation to qualify) and G2-Panama and long-awaited returns from C3-Peru (1982) and A3-Egypt (1990).   #1 ranked F1-Germany will have to battle favorites E1-Brazil and fan-favorite B2-Spain if they want to repeat as champions.  Host A1-Russia had the lowest rank when the World Cup Draw happened and will try to not become the 2nd host team to fail to qualify for the Knockout Stage (South Africa, 2010). 

For the first time, FIFA ranked all 32 qualifying teams in rank order, including pots 2, 3, and 4, which were usually divided into regional confederations.  As such, it was possible one group could have all been UEFA members or not have any UEFA members.  But there ended up being a good mix in all the groups... except for Group A, which happens to be the host country.  Russia, which was already ranked lowest in Pot 1 by far, got the 2nd worst team in Pot 2 (A4-Uruguay), the 3rd worst team in Pot 3 (A3-Egypt), and the worst team overall in Pot 4 (A4-Saudi Arabia).  C1-France (worst of Pot 1) drew the 2nd best team in Pot 2 (C2-Peru), the best team in Pot 3 (C3-Denmark), and the 3rd best team in Pot 4 (C4-Australia).  The toughest group has the 3rd best in Pot 1 (E1-Brazil), the 3rd best in Pot 2 (E2-Swiss), the 3rd best in Pot 3 (E3-Costa Rica), and the best in Pot 4 (E4-Serbia).

While Italy and the Netherlands failed to qualify in the harsh UEFA qualifying rounds, the USA somehow managed to not qualify in the easiest region in the world for the first time since 1986.  Before the ill-fated October 10, 2017 day, ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) had the USA with a 97% chance of finishing in the top 4 of the CONCACAF table (top 3 advance, 4th to make playoff).  And despite playing like an amateur team against another third-rate team in front of just 1,500 people, with 43 minutes left,

Narrowing, but Forza Pazza maintains one point lead

The surprising Japan win was picked by just 10 and their advancement to the Round of 16 was picked by just four.  Who knew when they had that losing streak coming in and failed to secure a match after the WC against Mozambique that the Samurai Blue would join South Korea as members of the elite 16.  Who knew JPN were free kick specialists?  Two goals off FKs.  In fact the only other FK goal (I believe) was KOR's.  JPN & KOR linked again.  The Dutch became the second team to sweep (9 pts) with BRA and CHI trying to do the same tomorrow.  59 picked Holland to win their game and 64 had them making the Round of 16.


Forza Pazza remains in first with 51pts, but EEChick1400 (50), and Big Tex (49) are close behind.  Eros 1 and Eros 2 (as you can guess, the same person and our defending champ) picked both matches and got both teams to move from a tie for 42nd to a tie for 12th (45).  El Ruso was the only other one to get both R16 teams and moved from 26th-T to 12th-T.  A total of 9 got both late matches correct.  Source (12th-T) had a topsy-turvy day missing both PAR & SVK but getting both JPN & NED.

For the day, 12 went 2-1 while 7 went 0-3.  Three picked 3 of the 4 R16 teams while four only got one correct and Coin Tossed (Last, 24) picked none.  As for the top picks, Forza Pazza, Lionelmessi, and El Oso (12th-T) have gotten 24 of 32 games correct while six have picked 9 of 12 R16 teams (not including BRA).

Italy is our biggest bust so far.  They were one of 3 teams (ESP and ARG are the other two) where everyone picked them to advance. Nine had them in the Semis, five in the Final, and Ram58 (55th-T, 39) picked them as champion.  It seems hopeless for him, but we won't know for sure until after tomorrow's matches.  That is when we will find out which of the 67 entries have no chance of finishing in the top 4.

Slovakia!

For the first time since 1974, the defending champs go home after 3 games.  PAR becomes the the 3rd South American team to win their group.  BRA and CHI are next.  SLV makes the Round of 16 in their first WC.


And Eisner wins 70-68!  Wow....  138 games in the fifth set, 20 today.

ETA:   Only three picked SVK over ITA (Coin Tossed, FC Spermacidals, and Soccerbix) while only 15 had them through to the next round while 48 pegged PAR.  No one got both and four (Coin Tossed, I Hate Vodka Most, Samersig, Source) didn't get either PAR or SVK.  So both 2006 finalists (FRA and ITA) are out.  Wow.  How hard is this year's cup?  Out of 30 non-tied matches, the top score is only 23 (Forza Pazza and Lionelmessi).  In 2006, Paolo Rossi (same person as Forza Pazza) got 34 of 37 matches correct.  Also, no one has gotten more than 8 of the 10 R16 teams correct (not including NED and BRA who have already qualified).

Score!

ITA scores in stoppage time, but is it too little too late?  NZL tied 0-0.  PAR is in.  SLV faking injuries now.

ITA out!

Most likely.  Great finish puts SLV up 3-1 on the defending champs.  NZL now needs to win or SLV is in.  And with GF, if NZL wins 1-0, PAR is out.  Extra time!

Close!

ITA just offsides on their tying goal and NZL nearly put one in.  Four minutes left.

Hope for Italy?

Down and out, Italy scores making it 2-1 Slovakia.  10 minutes left.  A tie would get ITA in on GF as NZL is tied 0-0 with PAR.

Ouch!

Wow. A rash of injuries lately. Well, if Group G wasn't a two-team race (between Brazil and Portugal) before, it is now since Ivory Coast star Dridier Drogba broke his arm and is out of the World Cup.  And if you had any inkling of North Korea pulling off an upset over Brazil or Portugal, well, they just listed one of their strikers as a goalkeeper and thus, can't play in the "outfield".  This has gotta be one of FIFA's dumbest rules.  It shouldn't matter but I guess with the economy as it is, they don't want to make a GK and regular jersey for just one player.  I guess he could come out like an 11th attacker, but just with all the GK gear on.  It also seems like North Korea didn't notice their error even on the May 11th submittal.  I guess they were too busy allegedly sinking subs to notice.

England lost yet another captain, this time apparently not to extracurricular activities, as Rio Ferdinand's injured knee will keep him home.  England just can't keep the stars aligned and have a controversy-free WC.  Can Beckham be a captain as an assistant coach ;-)?  Let's see if the USA can take advantage.

Finally, Italy's Andrea Pirlo, '06 Cup Final MVP, is probable for the Cup.  But Italy has the easiest group (none of the other 3 teams ranked in the Top 30) and he could rest for an extra week.  Of course, they did roll over against Mexico, who beat them 2-1 in Belgium.  Does Mexico's win (or Italy's loss) change how you think they'll do?