Issue #5.1.4 "The Axe Forgets" (After Group Stage)

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Friday, December 2, 2022  

GHANA AND USA EXTRACT REVENGE, BEL & GER OUT
Kankleiscious is alone in 1st; no eliminations until end of Round of 16

WORK FROM HOME (smt) -- Although it has been 24 years since B2-IR Iran shocked B3-USA and 12 years since H2-Ghana lost in Quarters to H3-Uruguay on a sure game-winning goal nullified by a blatant handball by Luis Suarez, there is an African proverb that is used in Star Wars: Andor - the axe forgets but the tree remembers.  USA battled political questions at press conferences and US Soccer sabotaging players and survived IRN 1-0 to advance to the Round of 16 for the 4th time in their last 5 WCs.  A first-half goal on a crushing run by Christian Pulisic was just enough to erase the 1998 memories.  GHA, after going down 2-0 early with slim hopes of advancing, bunkered down and played spoiler, preventing URU from the R16-clinching 3rd goal as URU may have won 2-0 but were eliminated.  Like the 2010 QF vURU, GHA missed a PK that started their downfall.

While just 11% of teams who lose their first match make the R16, 3 of the first 5 teams (60%) advanced (A3-Senegal, C1-Argentina, D2-Australia).  The last 6 teams did not make it so it ended up being 3/11 (27.3%).  On the flip side, just 16% of teams who win their first match fail to qualify and 2 of the first 5 (40%) did miss out (A2-Ecuador, C2-Saudi Arabia).  Just 1 of the final 6 teams failed to qualify (F1-Belgium, ending that Golden Generation) so it ended up being 3/11 as well (27.3%).  5 teams (C3-Mexico, D4-Tunisia, E3-Germany, G4-Cameroon, and URU) did win their last match but also failed to qualify. 

A4-Netherlands and B1-England picked up easy wins while 3 teams who had already clinched lost (D1-France 0-1 to TUN, G1-Brazil 0-1 to CMR, and H1-Portugal 1-2 to H4-Korea Republic).  ENG actually finished with the best record (7 pts, GD+7) as no team won 3 games for the first time since 1994.  There was just one tie in the last 16 matches (F4-Croatia 0-0 to BEL).

Craziness at the Top (12/1)

LA MIRADA, CA --  So we all had F3-Morocco and E4-Japan winning Group E and F, right?  All goals in Group F were scored before halftime as MAR scored 3 (ok, one was an own goal to F2-Canada) in winning 2-1 while F1-Belgium and F4-Croatia would play to the WC's 6th scoreless draw.  With MAR handling CAN (started with mistake by CAN GK), #2 in the world BEL just needed one goal and they had many chances in the end (most by halftime sub Romelu Lukaku who was just unlucky and should've easily scored on at least 2 of his 5 shots) and the Golden Generation bows out of group stage for first time since 1998.  By holding on, CRO takes 2nd in Group F.

At halftime, Group E was reverting back to normal from chaos as 2-time champ E1-Spain and 4-time champ E3-Germany were sitting 1-2 in the standings.  But chaos returned as subs helped JPN net two goals in 4 minutes to lead ESP, 2-1.  The latter goal was initially called out of bounds before the great cross but VAR's super tech determined a sliver of the ball was still in play and the goal stood.  Sliver.  That sliver put JPN on top of the group with GER chasing.  GER ran into trouble giving up two goals to E2-Costa Rica in 6 minutes (the latter a GER own goal) and CRC took 2nd over ESP.  But GER scored 3 minutes later and though added two more goals to win 4-2, ESP had a massive GD advantage to keep 2nd.  In stoppage time after JPN made two key saves, ESP seemed content with 2nd place (while JPN fans were nervous of giving up tying goal which would have eliminated them) which I'm sure annoyed GER fans.

For the 2nd straight WC, GER fails to make the R16 while JPN has rallied twice to beat two WC champs in the same stadium (sandwiching a perplexing 1-0 loss to CRC).  Talk about the hardest path.  GER had 32 shots and would have needed to win by 8 to guarantee a spot but all they needed was ESP to tie. JPN had just 17.7% possession (14% if you include "in contest" possession) and that's the lowest for a winner of a WC match.  

JPN made the R16 in 2002 for the first time so wore my authentic 2002 JPN Home jersey while taking care of Dad.  My jersey is #7 Hidetoshi Nakata with JPNvTUR imprint for their R16 match (which JPN lost).  Was lucky today though and just as nerve-wrecking as USAvIRN match, but glad ESP took the pedal off the gas in the last two minutes of stoppage time.

As it happened:

Not as Expected (11/27)

CUCINA ALESSÁ, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA -- F2-Canada scored in the 2' but it was all F4-Croatia after that in losing 4-1 and becoming the second team eliminated from the Knockout Stage.  For a CAN team that outplayed #2 F1-Belgium and won the CONCACAF qualifying group, this was a disappointing outcome heading into co-hosting in 2026.  Speaking of #2 BEL, F3-Morocco scored two late goals to shock BEL, 2-0 and take the group lead.

E4-Japan, who rallied and beat E3-Germany, overthought the game against E2-Costa Rica, who got blown out 7-0 by E1-Spain, by changing their lineup and keeping CRC in the match.  A spirited CRC defense fought for every through ball and took their one chance with an off-speed lob that fooled JPN's GK into jumping a tad early for the game-winner in the 81'.  Who would have thought CRC would give CONCACAF their first win of the tourney.

ESP was in control leading 1-0 but power doesn't panic and GER, although with JPN losing they would not have been eliminated with a loss, got the equalizer in the 83'.  GER has one of the more unique direct qualification path in that if they beat CRC by 8 goals, they will qualify.  But most scenarios need help even with a win.  

With Asian Football Confed's C2-Saudi Arabia and JPN losing, they are on the verge to be one of the 16% to fail to make the Round of 16 after winning their first game.  

So waking up at 3:30 am just in time to see CRC score was demoralizing and went out with my family to a very good Italian restaurant (yes, I had an Italian sausage omelet but the kids had pasta which was really good) in Huntington Beach to drown my sorrows in my authentic 2021 Anniversary JPN jersey, one of my favorite jerseys.

While 74 picked CRO, just 29 picked the ESP-GER draw, 13 CRC, and Party Brigade (104th-Tied, 10 pts) was the only one to pick MAR.  26 went 2-2 while 18 went 0-4.  CDOG, DDubs, Kankleiscious, and The Gambler 1 are tied for first with 17 pts while Meli is now alone in last (8).

FFB 18.05 "World Cup Field Report - Belgium Round of 16" (7/14)

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Saturday, July 14, 2018

Click the picture to view the wild video!

Check out some pics & videos from the public screening of the July 2nd Quarterfinal Round of 16 game of Belgium v. Japan in Bruge, Belgium (Flanders).  We timed it to be in Belgium to watch them play a quarterfinal knockout game.  

A fun atmosphere with thousands of people, where the rest of town seemed empty.  The place was full of beer stands, and like what you saw from other public viewings of games, there tended to be

Third Place: BEL v ENG (Live! ) (7/14)

REFRESH periodically, as this post will be updated throughout the match (hopefully).

2:40 am: In the pool, this third place match is not picked.  However it does play into any tiebreaker situation and we have a few.  If CRO wins the final, then there is a tie for 2nd place and 4th place.  BigRedSquare gets 2nd if total goals in 3rd place & Final matches is 5 or less and Blitzkreig813 gets 2nd if the total goals is 6 or more.  Bigblue2 gets 4th if the total goals is 5 or less and FernandoHeirrosArmada gets 4th if the total goals is 6 or more (note the loser ends in 5th which is zero prize money).

For the $40 Bonus, if FRA wins tomorrow, then Flying Elvi and Bigblue2 will split the $40 prize ($20 each) if the total goals is 6 or less, they will split with Krispy Kremer (3-way tie or $13.33 each) if the total goals is 7, and Krispy Kremer will win the Bonus if

Issue #8.2.4 "It's Not Coming Home" (After Semifinals)

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Thursday, July 12, 2018 

2018 World Cup Final - Luzhniki Stadium - Moscow
	vs.
FRA - France (Les Bleus) Fédération Française de Football		CRO - Croatia (Vatreni) Croatian Football Federation
#7 | C1 | Group C Winners | 5-0-1 3rd Finals ('98, '06) C1: Beat Australia 2-1 C3: Beat Peru 1-0 C5: Tied Denmark 0-0 R16: Beat 2D-Argentina 4-3 QF: Beat 1A-Uruguay 2-0 SF: Beat 1G-Belgium 1-0		#20 | D3 | Group D Winners | 4-0-2 1st Finals (-) D2: Beat Nigeria 2-0 D3: Beat Argentina 3-0 D6: Beat Iceland 2-1 R16: Beat 2C-Denmark 1-1 (3-2 PSO) QF: Beat 2A-Russia 2-2 (4-3 PSO) SF: Beat 2G-England 2-1 (AET)

ENGLAND RUN ENDS IN EXTRA TIME; FRANCE HOLDS ON

Walleyewins the pool, BigRedSquare in money, but 5 vie for final two spots

EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt) -- For all the hype f bringing the Cup back home to 2G-England, tiny D1-Croatia's effort and heart won out in a 2-1 win after Extra Time.  ENG started strong and got a free kick goal, their 9th set piece goal, in the 5' but Croatia tied it in the second half to send it to extra time.  With ENG no longer afraid of the PSO and with CRO playing their third-straight extra time match, things looked good for the team that really isn't a country.  But then CRO's Mario Mandukic was in the right place for an opportunistic laser strike in the 109' to put CRO up for good.  It was CRO's second time scoring in Extra Time but this time their defense held down the stretch.  ENG only had one shot on goal (their free kick) though Harry Kane had a couple of point-blank opportunities (save then left post off the GK) on the same play and although ruled offsides, probably would've been overturned by VAR if he had actually scored.  CRO, the second smallest country to make the final and began play just in '96, advances to their first final while ENG is still overjoyed by the lads effort in this World Cup.

In the battle of giants, 1C-France (ranked #7) just needed

Set Piece + Header (7/10)

NIKKA RAMEN, GOLETA, CA -- Samuel Umtiti headed in the tourney's 32nd headed goal off the tourney's 69th set-piece hat lead to a goal in the 51' giving 1C-France its fourth one-goal victory, 1-0, over 1G-Belgium.  Belgium had scored at least 2 goals in four of their five previous matches but their famous counter-attacks never materialized.  FRA advanced to their 3rd final and will seek their 2nd World Cup ('98).  In this battle of giants, defense and goalkeeping ruled as FRA picked up their 4th shutout and 14-goal BEL were shut out for the first time.

FRA was picked by 18 to advance to the Final.  This propelled Walleye to

Issue #7.2.3 "The Greatest Showman" (Semifinal Preview)

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Monday, July 9, 2018

FRANCE-BELGIUM THE REAL FINAL
Final four feature teams who have not won the Cup in at least 20 years

HILTON SANTA BARBARA BEACHFRONT RESORT, CA (smt) --  The first semifinal will feature the two best teams of the tournament, a pre-final of sorts, with Group C winners France facing off against Group G Belgium, both undefeated in regulation and both ranked in the top 7.  France rallied from a 2-1 2nd half deficit to beat 2D-Argentina 4-3 and Belgium rallied from a 2-0 2nd half deficit to beat 2H-Japan in their Round of 16 matches so they have been tested.  The second semifinal features 1D-Croatia which needed to PSO wins against non-group winners to advance and 2G-England which barely beat G3-Tunisia but did get the PSO monkey off their back in beating 1H-Colombia.  Only 2 of the 8 teams on this side of the bracket were ranked in the top 11.  So will the Final be anti-climatic?  The current odds:  France 2:1, Belgium 2.5:1, England 2.75:1, Croatia 4:1. 

English fans are going bonkers over England's success thus far, especially finally winning a penalty shootout, they believe they are destined.  They are going almost as crazy as buying albums of The Greatest Showman, which spent 11 straight weeks at #1 in the U.K. tying Adele of all people.  My son got me to buy the digital version of the movie as he saw it with his neighborhood friend and after resisting for a long time, got to watch and LOVE it (ignore the biopic liberties taken).  I should never doubt Hugh Jackman (I highly enjoyed The Boy From Oz and saw him live on Broadway) in a musical again.  So to link the topics together, below is the actual track list from the movie (all great songs and damn addictive, even my son and daughter are humming the tunes) and how it relates to the 2018 World Cup.  BTW, each title is linked to the song courtesy of Atlantic Records.  Enjoy!

The Greatest Show: Where it's covered in all the colored lights; Where the runaways are running the night; Impossible comes true, it's taking over you; Oh, this is the greatest show.  Indeed, the World Cup is the greatest show on earth and this particular one has seen the "runaways" running the show with

Issue #6.2.2 "It's Coming Home" (After Quarterfinals)

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Sunday, July 8, 2018 

ENGLAND ON A HIGH, HOSTS NO MORE
Flying Elvi holding on to lead; 14 still alive

STUBHUB CENTER, CARSON, CA (smt) --  2G-England scored a goal before and after halftime in shutting out 1F-Sweden, 2-0 to advance to the semifinals for the first time since '90.  English fans are going crazy as they hope this is the run that will erase 52 years of bad memories including '16's Euro loss to tiny Iceland.  While I wore my '09 era Beckham England home jersey, I got so many compliments at the Camarillo Premium Outlet including shouts of "we're bringing it back home" referring to the World Cup trophy.  Forgot how many tourists go to these outlets so a lot of soccer fans.  

The last of the giants were put down, as 1G-Belgium used

Youth and Speed (7/6)

OJAI OLIVE OIL FARM, CA -- Just like that, we only have European teams left.  South American sides 1A-Uruguay and 1E-Brazil both had allowed just one goal in four matches this tournament.  They were also the last of the non-European teams left.  The youth of 1C-France outplayed URU with an early goal in the first half and then a rocket that went through the hands of the URU GK that sealed their fate, 2-0.  FRA has scored on their last six shots on goal and advances to the Quarters for the first time since '06.

1G-Belgium got a gift of an own goal but BEL used their fast and deadly counterattack to

Issue #5.2.1 "Just a Tease" (After Round of 16) + Bonus Details

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Wednesday, July 4, 2018 ***HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY***

SPAIN, PORTUGAL, MEXICO DISAPPOINT
EEChick1400 and TheComeBacker on top; 28 still alive; Bonus!

WYNDHAM GARDEN VENTURA PIERPONT INN, VENTURA, CA (smt) --  After 2F-Mexico's wins over Germany and Korea Republic, CONCACAF was riding sky high on the Tricolor's chances.  But then the egg against Sweden led to a Round of 16 match against 1E-Brazil instead of 2E-Switzerland and for the seventh straight time, MEX was eliminated in the Round of 16 while BRA won its Round of 16 match for the seventh straight time.  The Iberian powers B1-Spain and B2-Portugal were both expected to go far past their Group A opponents but Ronaldo and POR were stopped by 1A-Uruguay 2-1 and ESP, despite huge advantages on possession, shots, and passes completed, could only muster a 1-1 tie with host 2A-Russia and lost in the Penalty Shootout (PSO), 4-3.  RUS was the 70th ranked team while ESP was the 10th ranked team in the world. 

2G-England shut the door on their PSO curse by

FFB 18.04 "Fallen Stars - What Happened to...???" (7/2)

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Monday, July 2, 2018

[ FRA | POR | GER | ARG | BEL ]

As the knockout phase of the 2018 World Cup unfolds, I think back to the previous Euro and World Cup, when I was tracking some rising stars that were mysteriously (or otherwise) left off their countries’ World Cup Rosters this time around.  Here’s a quick look at some unfortunate circumstances and puzzling moves by international managers: 

Dimitri Payet (France) – One of the key performers for France in the Euro 2016, wizarding midfielder Payet was in tears as he

Buzzer Beater (7/2)

TGI FRIDAY'S, LOS ANGELES - LADERA, CA -- #61 2H-Japan came out strategically and attacked when necessary to upset the #3 1G-Belgium's offense but instead of trying to play for a scoreless draw, Japan managed to score twice after the half and took a 2-0 lead. Two BEL subs in the 65' changed everything. Creating havoc off a corner kick, a routine header cross somehow managed to tuck away just under the crossbar to cut JPN's lead in half in the 69'.

Then five minutes later, sub Marouane Fellaini

At Least No Coin Flip (6/28)

WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT, VA -- Both H2-Japan and H4-Senegal just need a draw to advance to the Round of 16 and both failed to do so, by identical 1-0 scores.  As such, both teams were level on points (4), goal differential (4), goals for(4), and head-to-head (2-2).  So we headed to the next tiebreaker, Fair Play Points.  This was instituted by FIFA in 2016 so this is the first World Cup to use it.  At the start, Japan led Senegal -3 pts to -5 pts on yellow cards and SEN picked one up in 51' to put it out reach, -3 to -6.  JPN did pick one up in the 66' but still held on to a 2 point margin.  JPN joins MEX as the only non-European, non-South American teams in the R16.

What if?  SEN had favorable results in all three matches but

Group F Remains Open (6/23)

F1-Germany fell behind 1-0 to F3-Sweden and after tying the game, saw Jerome Boateng go out with his second yellow in 11 minutes in the 82'.  Germany was following in Argentina's footsteps of needing help in their 3rd match and no chance at winning the group.  But a foul outside the box in the fourth minute of stoppage time (of five minutes added) saw Germany execute a perfect free kick play as Toni Kroos took the free kick and a quick short pass to Marco Reus to stop the ball gave Kroos a better angle and his kick bent around the charging Swedish players and curled in just past the outstretched hands of the SWE goalkeeper.  It was a first-class, world-class goal in the clutchest moment possible.  The 90'+5 goal meant they can still win the group and now have more paths to make the Round of 16 although GER should not be doing classless acts after the match.

F2-Mexico took care of F4-Korea Rep, 2-1 and missed clinching a spot in the Round of 16 when

One Favorite Proves Its Might (6/18)

While the three odds-on favorites (BRA, GER, ESP) to win the Cup have gone 0-1-2, just on the outside is G1-Belgium, ranked #3 in the world and in the second half they exploded against newbie G2-Panama scoring 3 times in a 3-0 win.  Only top group seeds A1-Russia and C1-France have managed to pick up wins, and Russia was technically the fourth-best team in the group.  H1-Poland plays Tuesday.

Harry Kane scored early and in final stoppage time to give

FFB 18.01 "Contenders, Pretenders, and Surprises"

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Tuesday, June 12, 2018

PREDICTING HOW FAR 10 SQUADS WILL GO

[ Contenders | Pretenders | Surprises ]

CONTENDERS
Germany	Star Power.  Depth.  Team Chemistry.  Experience.  A history of winning.  Well-coached. Some of the many reasons Germany is a tournament favorite once again.  The only thing missing from the 2014 iteration of the Defending Champs is Philipp Lamm, their maestro midfielder and leader who retired surprisingly young.  And how does Germany’s semi-finals bracket look?  Until the semi-final game, where they are likely to play Spain, there are teams they’ve dominated (Argentina) and another pair of teams Germany will simply outclass (Colombia & England).  Italy, the one team that has historically given Germany fits (and defeats) in the World Cup, didn’t qualify… another reason Germany’s chances of repeating are looking bright.  The winner of Spain vs. Germany may be the eventual champion.
Spain	La Roja Furia cruised thru their qualification, winning all but one game, which was a draw, and meanwhile sent Italy packing.  Spain has its 2010 WC & 2012 Euro Championship team stalwarts at defense (Ramos & Pique) and midfield (Iniesta) complemented by a newer, yet seasoned stars at all positions, including goal keeper De Gea and a healthy poaching striker in Diego Costa.  They’re firing on all cylinders, dominating possession and scoring plenty of goals while keeping clean sheets.  Spain’s depth is also an insurance policy, preventing untimely injuries from derailing their campaign.  A clear Top 4 squad this year.
France	France isn’t a dark horse, but perhaps I’m giving them more credit than they deserve when I say they are a Top 3 favorite to win the whole thing.  Young, energetic, hungry, and talented, France has a roster that has matured, and still on the rise.  Although they narrowly lost in Extra Time to Portugal at the Euro 2016 Championship, they were clearly the better side for the first 90 minutes of that game.  The favorites sometimes

Issue #5.1.4 "Backing In is A-OK : JURGEN IST PANDO!"

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Thursday, June 26, 2014 [Released 6/30]

AMERICA RULES ROUND OF 16; ASIA WINLESSJB & Rainman join Win It All in 1st

GOLETA (smt) -- While working near Santa Barbara, I got to listen to the last few minutes of the 1st half and things looked promising for G4-Team USA (they weren't getting blown out) and G2-Portugal had a one-nil lead at the half for a three-goal cushion (more or less).  But a G1-Germany goal and a G3-Ghana goal narrowed it down to just one.  Luckily I wasn't listening to this so it was stress free because when I started to listen at the end of the 2nd half, the person who kept us from clinching a place into the R16, Cristiano Ronaldo, put in an easy rebound to seal USA's entry into the R16.  So kind of a lackluster "yay" but I will take it.  First time USA has made back-to-back R16s (luckily they didn't keep alternating with FRA who did follow the great-horrible-great-horrible-great pattern this year).  USA's qualification meant 8 of the 10 North and South American teams made the R16.  Go America!

H1-Belgium may not be a traditional power but they know how to win games late as they once again