Tuesday, June 12, 2018
PREDICTING HOW FAR 10 SQUADS WILL GO
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Germany
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Star Power. Depth. Team Chemistry. Experience. A history of winning. Well-coached. Some of the many reasons Germany is a tournament favorite once again. The only thing missing from the 2014 iteration of the Defending Champs is Philipp Lamm, their maestro midfielder and leader who retired surprisingly young. And how does Germany’s semi-finals bracket look? Until the semi-final game, where they are likely to play Spain, there are teams they’ve dominated (Argentina) and another pair of teams Germany will simply outclass (Colombia & England). Italy, the one team that has historically given Germany fits (and defeats) in the World Cup, didn’t qualify… another reason Germany’s chances of repeating are looking bright. The winner of Spain vs. Germany may be the eventual champion.
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Spain
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La Roja Furia cruised thru their qualification, winning all but one game, which was a draw, and meanwhile sent Italy packing. Spain has its 2010 WC & 2012 Euro Championship team stalwarts at defense (Ramos & Pique) and midfield (Iniesta) complemented by a newer, yet seasoned stars at all positions, including goal keeper De Gea and a healthy poaching striker in Diego Costa. They’re firing on all cylinders, dominating possession and scoring plenty of goals while keeping clean sheets. Spain’s depth is also an insurance policy, preventing untimely injuries from derailing their campaign. A clear Top 4 squad this year.
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France
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France isn’t a dark horse, but perhaps I’m giving them more credit than they deserve when I say they are a Top 3 favorite to win the whole thing. Young, energetic, hungry, and talented, France has a roster that has matured, and still on the rise. Although they narrowly lost in Extra Time to Portugal at the Euro 2016 Championship, they were clearly the better side for the first 90 minutes of that game. The favorites sometimes
lose, and France need only go thru the likes of Portugal or Uruguay and Iceland (who they destroyed at Euro 2016), before a semi-final against Belgium or Brazil (against whom they’ve had some success). If they can perform well, they will need only overcome either Germany or Spain in the final to win their second ever World Cup title. Allez Les Bleus! |
Belgium
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Belgium’s roster is further improved from the 2014 version, which lost handily to Argentina in the quarterfinals. This golden age is peaking, with a star-studded starting roster and decent depth at all positions, they have a legit chance to win the whole tournament. The Red Devils have a clear path to the semi-finals, with only Colombia and England standing in their way. That means they need to have only two great performances, back to back, to win the World Cup. I predict they will lose to either Brazil in the quarterfinals, or France in the Semi-Finals, but they have a fighter’s chance of punching thru to a World Cup Championship. The key now is whether new team manager Roberto Martinez has made this team better than the sum of its parts, which is very impressive on paper, to say the least.
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Brazil
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Pundits say the World Cup hangover is over for Brazil. But at least half the current squad was there when they were embarrassingly thrashed 7-1 and eliminated from the World Cup on home turf in 2014. If they face Germany in the final, they’ll have to get over a lot of nerves. But getting there is their first challenge. They’ve played well in qualifying, taking first place in CONMEBOL, which is quite a feat. The CONMEMBOL conference should get an extra spot over a European team in the World Cup, to make the tournament more competitive and interesting. An under appreciated feat by Brazil during qualifying was that they gave up just 11 goals in 18 matches. That says something about a defense for a team that traditionally doesn’t honor or celebrate the boring side of the beautiful game. Brazil will give up goals, however, against teams who dominate possession and are well organized (as Germany proved in 2014). Despite the improvements in team strategy and chemistry, I’m not convinced they have the skills or enough ice in their veins to win 3 tough games in a row (Belgium, France, then Germany/Spain). I predict a semi-final exit.
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Argentina
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The stars on this team have peaked. With few promising talents on the rise, they will likely reach the quarterfinals, or semi-finals at best before being outmatched by the true contenders’ speed & skill. If they come out on top of Group D, they will have an easy path to the quarterfinals, where they will likely run in to Spain, who defeated Argentina 6-1 in a recent friendly (albeit without Messi). If Argentina manages to beat Spain, they will likely face their Kryptonite – Germany. Argentina has had their chances to beat Germany, reaching overtime in two of their past three World Cup elimination matchups, with Argentina defeated the past three World Cups in a row! El Albiceleste will be underdogs trying to get the proverbial monkey off it’s back. It would be great to see Messi find a way to lift the World Cup trophy before his career fades, but this level of futbol is way too much of a team sport for one man to carry victory on his back.
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Portugal
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CR7 has won everything but the World Cup at this point, but even more than Messi, his national team lacks the supporting cast to win 3 or 4 tough matches in a row. With one extra round of elimination and stiffer competition, Portugal’s chances of winning by parking the bus and shootouts won’t work like it did at Euro 2016. Even though luck isn’t a zero sum game, Portugal’s fortunes will run short. If Portugal hasn’t gone fishing after the Round of 16, they’ll surely become tourists after the quarterfinals.
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England
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Given that we Americans live in an English-speaking world, there is a skew of favoritism in media toward England’s chances of winning the World Cup. Much like Notre Dame in the Big Dance, England is often overrated and easy to bet against (no offense to my great grandfather’s countrymen!). They have strong young players on their roster, including Tottenham stars Harry Kane and Dele Alli, but most of this young squad is unproven on the international stage. England’s early exits from World Cup 2014 and loss to ICELAND at Euro 2016 leave a lot to prove. This World Cup could help them build toward better editions in future tourneys, but I don’t see them besting Colombia, their most likely opponent in the first Knockout Stage (Round of 16).
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These teams won’t win the whole tournament, but they will be fun to watch and surpass your expectations!
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Iceland
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This tiny soccer-crazy nation may cause fits in Group D, one of the “Groups of Death.” I predict they will take 2nd place, upsetting Nigeria and tying Argentina & Croatia to advance into the knockout stage. Their incredible defense and unique “deep throw-in” tactics gives them a chance to win low scoring games against otherwise superior opponents. Their lack of goal-scoring abilities will lead to a Knockout Stage defeat.
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Uruguay
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Uruguay is the quadrennial wild card. With a handful of stars that includes Luis Suarez, they can never be counted out. I expect Uruguay to reach the quarters, perhaps the semi-finals if they get lucky against their likely opponent France.
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Colombia
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Their strong defense served them well in the ultracompetitive CONMEBOL qualification, giving up 19 goals in 18 games, third fewest after Brazil & Argentina. Featuring a quick-paced and skilled midfield, their lack of star quality at striker position will limit them to a quarter final appearance. James Rodriguez made a great run thru the quarterfinals last time, losing in heartbreaking fashion to Brazil. This will be an exciting team to watch once again.
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---My next one will be "Rising Stars"... a shorter article that will reveal exciting players many people have never heard of, but should follow during this tournament. ...
Eric
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