Issue #1.0.1 "Six Sigma Not Enough for USA"

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Sunday, June 10, 2018 ***HAPPY BIRTHDAY WIFEY***

IMPROBABLE BUT NOW POSSIBLE, USA AND ITALY ARE OUT
Our 6th World Cup pool arrives late but will still be six-sigma of fun

JET PROPULSION LABORATORY, PASADENA, CA (smt) --  There will be no Red, White, and Blue nor Gli Azzurri (snapping a streak of 14 straight World Cups) nor Clockwork Orange (who also missed 2016 EURO) in the World Cup in Russia.  All three teams will watch from the sidelines as 32 teams vie for the 21st World Cup including newcomers D2-Iceland (which beat G4-England at Euro 2016 and is the smallest population nation to qualify) and G2-Panama and long-awaited returns from C3-Peru (1982) and A3-Egypt (1990).   #1 ranked F1-Germany will have to battle favorites E1-Brazil and fan-favorite B2-Spain if they want to repeat as champions.  Host A1-Russia had the lowest rank when the World Cup Draw happened and will try to not become the 2nd host team to fail to qualify for the Knockout Stage (South Africa, 2010). 

For the first time, FIFA ranked all 32 qualifying teams in rank order, including pots 2, 3, and 4, which were usually divided into regional confederations.  As such, it was possible one group could have all been UEFA members or not have any UEFA members.  But there ended up being a good mix in all the groups... except for Group A, which happens to be the host country.  Russia, which was already ranked lowest in Pot 1 by far, got the 2nd worst team in Pot 2 (A4-Uruguay), the 3rd worst team in Pot 3 (A3-Egypt), and the worst team overall in Pot 4 (A4-Saudi Arabia).  C1-France (worst of Pot 1) drew the 2nd best team in Pot 2 (C2-Peru), the best team in Pot 3 (C3-Denmark), and the 3rd best team in Pot 4 (C4-Australia).  The toughest group has the 3rd best in Pot 1 (E1-Brazil), the 3rd best in Pot 2 (E2-Swiss), the 3rd best in Pot 3 (E3-Costa Rica), and the best in Pot 4 (E4-Serbia).

While Italy and the Netherlands failed to qualify in the harsh UEFA qualifying rounds, the USA somehow managed to not qualify in the easiest region in the world for the first time since 1986.  Before the ill-fated October 10, 2017 day, ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) had the USA with a 97% chance of finishing in the top 4 of the CONCACAF table (top 3 advance, 4th to make playoff).  And despite playing like an amateur team against another third-rate team in front of just 1,500 people, with 43 minutes left,

the USA scored to cut Trinidad & Tobago's lead to one and heavy favorites Costa Rica and Mexico were leading by one.  Not quite six sigma margin (99.99966%) in qualifying to live another game for USA, but might as well be.  You would need Panama and Honduras to score two goals each against the top 2 teams and for the USA to not score again against the weakest team in the Hexagonal.  Improbable.  But then, six minutes later, both Panama and Honduras score.  10 minutes later, Honduras is leading group winner Mexico.  14 minutes later, USA's Clint Dempsey hits the post.  12 minutes later Panama now lead 2nd-place Costa Rica.  6 minutes later (including 5 minutes of stoppage time), the USA is eliminated from the World Cup for the first time since 1986.  Maybe that's a good thing as when the Cup has been held in Europe the USA has failed to qualify for the Knockout Stage (Italy '90, France '98, Germany '06).  By the end of this week, we should know if the USA will be selected as host of 2026 (with token games tossed Canada's and Mexico's way), something they failed to nail in 2010 (for 2022 tourney).

Since the Final Draw, the latest rankings (June 7) have notable shifts such as Switzerland jumping from 11th to 6th, Belgium going from 5th to 3rd, Denmark going from 19th to 12th (tie), Tunisia 28th to 21st (was 14th in the May 2018 ranking) while Egypt fell 15 spots to 45th and Japan 17 spots to 61st.  The host dropped even further to 70th, worst of all 32 teams.  And yet we want to expand the field to 48 teams in 2026 (a plan to implement this in 2022 stalled for now).

And for the first time, FOX will be broadcasting the World Cup with an incredible 38 matches over the air on network TV -- all you need is an HDTV antenna and television to watch.  And this is without the USA playing.  Just your local, in Los Angeles, KTTV-Channel 11.  Like there is no more ESPN broadcast, there is no Univision broadcast either, as Telemundo and NBC Universo will televise all matches in Spanish with 56 matches over the air on local TV, in Los Angeles, KVEA-Channel 52.  Who needs cable or OTT or Internet?

Four years is a long time to wait, but those who participated in our 2nd-ever HWCI EURO Pool, only had to wait 2 years or our 1st-ever HWCI Women's World Cup Pool only had to wait 3 years!  2017 was our off-year for soccer pools but we're back!  Same rules, same format.  The only issue is that there are no checks if you accidentally put in the same team winning a group and coming in 2nd, but I will do the checks manually anyway.  Just make sure you have 16 different teams in your Round of 16.

We had a record 75 entries in 2014 and hope to continue the upward tick but with the late start getting the online entry up and without the USA pulling in the casual fan, it will be near impossible to top.  But we'll have fun anyways.  Tim H won the top prize of $345.  This year, Sammy will take a break from his "PANDO! or GORDO?" newsletters.  Eric's "Foster's Football Brew" is slated to be back which is exciting.  If anyone else wants to contribute, let me know.  Anyone else going to Russia and want to send pictures or mini-reports?

The best way to keep up with the pool is to follow @HWCI_Pools on Twitter or visit the #HWwc hashtag (you don't need Twitter account to view) often for daily updates.  Less often will be our Facebook group page (post comments or organize viewing parties) and then these newsletters every 4 days or so.

Here are the basics:

WHAT:  6th HWCI Men's World Cup Soccer Office Pool
FEE:  $10.00 USD per entry (up to 3 entries per person)
DEADLINE: 8:00 a.m. PDT on Thursday, June 14th (if by mail postmark by THU AM)
WHO:  Anyone with ten bucks!  Invite friends!
REFERRAL: For those who participated in 2014/2015/2016, refer 5 new people and get a free entry with one paid
SOCCER STAT: Germany is the defending World Cup champion
PAYMENT: PayPal $10 to hwci(at)hotmail.com (personal or gift, no credit cards)
  PayPal $10.61 to smt0222(at)yahoo.com (credit card okay)
  Google Wallet $10 to smt0222(at)gmail.com (personal or gift)
  Mail $10 (email worldcup(at)hwci.com for snail mail address)
WINNERS: 1998: Fernando B (Le Bix) $115 (21 entries)
  2002: Tina M (Puna) $110 (23)
  2006: Cynthia S (Elastigirl) $220 (44)
  2010: Joseph D (Forza Pazza) $310 (69)
  2014: Tim H (EEChick1400) $345 (75)

For more info, see the "Rules" or read our FAQ.  Then please enter online using our Web Entry page or download the form and fill the last page out and email to worldcup(at)hwci.com.

   SIDES 'N KICKS:  Chile, currently ranked 9th in the world, had a tough qualifying as well, losing as many games as it won (8) and in their October 10th nightmare, got shellacked by Brazil while Colombia and Peru played to a safe 1-1 tie that qualified both to play another day (H3-Colombia the 4th and final auto bid, C3-Peru finishing 5th and went on to beat New Zealand in playoff to qualify) and eliminated Chile... Brazil is the odds-on favorite at 4:1 followed by Germany (9:2), Spain (6:1), France (13:2), and Argentina (9:1)... based on the current rankings (June 7), #9-Chile was the highest ranked to not qualify with the Netherlands (#17), Wales (#18), Italy (#19), and USA (#25) also not qualfiying... there is a 5-way tie for last (206th of 211 total teams): Turks and Caicos Islands, Anguilla, Bahamas, Eritrea, Somalia, and Tonga... this is first year FOX will broadcast the men's World Cup and they get it without the USA in it (FOX started with the 2015 Women's World Cup broadcast which they did a pretty good job at) tough it gained the 2026 (with hopes it will be in North America) rights over alleged pacification from FIFA over Qatar's 2022 moving to the winter and conflicting with the other football - the NFL... Russia will have games 12 stadiums in four different time zones (+2 (Kalingrad), +3 (Moscow and the others), +4 (Samara), +5 (Ekaterinburg))... Russia winning the 2018 bid was as controversial as current headlines dealing with Russia these days... Zabivaka the Wolf won to be the World Cup mascot with more than 50% of the vote... the past eight champions have won their group... all champions have come from Europe (11) or South America (9)... Brazil has participated in all 21 World Cups... Italy last failed to qualify in 1958... although both missed the cut, the USA (33) and #26-Austria (29) have played the most WC matches without a 0-0 draw... Germany won all their qualifiers (10-0-0) and had a +39 goal differential... Serbia records include Serbia and Montenegro and Yugoslavia... Islamic Republic Iran, or IR Iran, will be noted as just "Iran" for simplicity... should we expect France to implode?  Since '98:  Won Group & Champs, 0-2-1, Runner-Up, 0-2-1 with player revolt, Won Group and made Quarterfinals... the Coca-Cola FIFA rankings will now reward teams that play more games and even more for playing competitive matches starting with August ranking... Morocco is the other nation vying for the 2026 tournament... due to the extreme heat concerns, the Qatar 2022 World Cup will move to a November-December tournament... next year, when we will have our 2nd HWCI Women's World Cup pool, France will be the host... F2-Meixco is 14-25-14 in World Cup play (most losses by a team)... 7 of 8 teams who have won the World Cup are in the tournament (no Italia)... Russia is the first Eastern European country to host and they beat Portugal/Spain, Belgium/Netherlands, and England bids...

---Americans travel well, so it will be interesting to see which nation's fans pick up the slack in filling the stadiums...
Scott

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