Friday, December 2, 2022
GHANA AND USA EXTRACT REVENGE, BEL & GER OUT
Kankleiscious is alone in 1st; no eliminations until end of Round of 16
WORK FROM HOME (smt) -- Although it has been 24 years since B2-IR Iran shocked B3-USA and 12 years since H2-Ghana lost in Quarters to H3-Uruguay on a sure game-winning goal nullified by a blatant handball by Luis Suarez, there is an African proverb that is used in Star Wars: Andor - the axe forgets but the tree remembers. USA battled political questions at press conferences and US Soccer sabotaging players and survived IRN 1-0 to advance to the Round of 16 for the 4th time in their last 5 WCs. A first-half goal on a crushing run by Christian Pulisic was just enough to erase the 1998 memories. GHA, after going down 2-0 early with slim hopes of advancing, bunkered down and played spoiler, preventing URU from the R16-clinching 3rd goal as URU may have won 2-0 but were eliminated. Like the 2010 QF vURU, GHA missed a PK that started their downfall.
While just 11% of teams who lose their first match make the R16, 3 of the first 5 teams (60%) advanced (A3-Senegal, C1-Argentina, D2-Australia). The last 6 teams did not make it so it ended up being 3/11 (27.3%). On the flip side, just 16% of teams who win their first match fail to qualify and 2 of the first 5 (40%) did miss out (A2-Ecuador, C2-Saudi Arabia). Just 1 of the final 6 teams failed to qualify (F1-Belgium, ending that Golden Generation) so it ended up being 3/11 as well (27.3%). 5 teams (C3-Mexico, D4-Tunisia, E3-Germany, G4-Cameroon, and URU) did win their last match but also failed to qualify.
A4-Netherlands and B1-England picked up easy wins while 3 teams who had already clinched lost (D1-France 0-1 to TUN, G1-Brazil 0-1 to CMR, and H1-Portugal 1-2 to H4-Korea Republic). ENG actually finished with the best record (7 pts, GD+7) as no team won 3 games for the first time since 1994. There was just one tie in the last 16 matches (F4-Croatia 0-0 to BEL).
In the most exciting matches, AFC (Asian) teams went 3-0 after going 0-3. #38 AUS shocked #10 D3-Denmark on a 60' counter-attack goal, winning 1-0 and making their first Round of 16 since 2006. E4-Japan somehow beat two WC champions after rallying for the second time in 8 days to beat E1-Spain, 2-1, with two goals in four minutes, the latter VAR-reviewed for an out-of-bounds that a sliver of the ball was above the end line for the goal to stand. JPN who beat GER and ESP had lost to E2-Costa Rica team that had zero shots in their first game. The hardest path to the R16. KOR got a stoppage time goal to shock POR for the 2nd time (did so in 3rd match in 2002 to make R16) to advance and knock URU out. KOR had to wait about 10 minutes before they could celebrate as the URU match was behind by 7 minutes due to 1st half stoppage time differences.
8 European (UEFA) teams made the R16, one from each of the 8 groups, while Africa (CAF) and Asia (AFC) each won 7 games in sending 2 and 3 R16 teams, respectively. South America (CONMEBOL) barely got ARG in (2 teams total) and CONCACAF flamed out, only sending USA. The first 23 ties at the half were scoreless, a ridiculous trend. Despite very high stoppage time minutes being added, only 9 of 120 goals were scored in second half stoppage. Just one red card was issued during play (B4-Wales GK for dangerous play) with another at end of match for taking off jersey (2nd yellow) (CMR) and another to the KOR coach.
For this round (16 matches), Meli (105th-Tied, 45 pts) went 11-5 while 3 went 4-12 (Tiny Destroyer (7th-T, 60), LuisEnriqeusArmada (7th-T, 51), TripleM (34th-T, 56)). Kankleiscious is alone in first with 64 points but has GER as champion while Markofthebeast and Sebass are tied for last with 42 pts. Overall, 2 4 (Tiny Destroyer (7th-T, 60) and Soccerbix (3rd-T, 61)) got 13 14 of 16 R16 teams while two (Union FC (101st-T, 47) and Sebass (108th-T)) only got 7 of 16.
Usually, I would do eliminations but with no rest days, I'll probably announce it after the Round of 16 is complete (and retroactively, do it for after the group stage). My algorithm is a bit brute force in Excel and takes literally more than a day to do the 32,768 possible outcomes (one day, I'll optimize it... one day...). After the R16, there will only be 8,192 outcomes. So everyone can think they can still win the pool!
The best way to keep up with the pool is to follow @HWCI_Pools on Twitter or visit the #hwciWC hashtag (you don't need Twitter account to view) often for daily updates. Less often will be our Facebook group page (post comments or organize viewing parties) and then these newsletters every 4 days or so.
Ins & Outs - [48 Matches/10 Ties] - Goals: 120 (2.50/match) [Own: 2 (42-CRO>CAN 40', 44-GER>CRC 70'), Subs: 21 (2-NED 90'+9, 3-ENG 71', 3-ENG 90', 11-JPN 75', 11-JPN 83', 15-POR 80', 15-GHA 89', 17-IRN 90'+8, 18-QAT 78', 18-SEN 84', 24-ARG 87', 26-MAR 90'+2, 27-CRO 90'+4, 28-ESP 62', 28-GER 83', 29-CMR 63'43-JPN 48', 44-GER 73', 44-GER 85', 44-GER 89', 46-KOR 90'+1), 90+/120+: 9 (2-NED +9, 3-SEN +13, 17-IRN +8 {gw}, 17-IRN +11, 26-MAR +2, 27-CRO +4, 32-POR +3, 40-KSA +5, 46-KOR +1 {gw}), Extra Time: 0 (-)]... Scoring First: 32-6-4 [6 Nil-Nil ties (8-ARGvKSA, 5-AUSvFRA, 11-GERvJPN, 27-CANvCRO, 43-ESPvJPN, 46-PORvKOR)]... Leading at Half: 16-3-3 [26 ties (24 scoreless); 8-ARGvKSA, 11-GERvJPN, 43-ESPvJPN]... Shutout: 34 [1-QAT, 2-SEN, 6-DEN, 6-TUN, 7-MEX, 7-POL, 12-MAR, 12-CRO, 10-CRC, 9-CAN, 13-CMR, 14-URU, 14-KOR, 16-SRB, 17-WAL, 20-ENG, 20-USA, 21-TUN {2}, 22-KSA, 24-MEX {2}, 25-JPN, 26-BEL, 30-SUI, 32-URU {2}, 36-QAT {2}, 33-WAL {2}, 34-IRN, 38-FRA, 37-DEN {2}, 39-POL {2}, 41-CRO {2}, 41-BEL {2}, 45-GHA, 48-BRA]... PK: 9/14 [1-ECU 16', 3-SEN 90'+9, 4-WAL 82', 8-ARG 10', 7-pol (s) 58', 11-GER 33', 10-ESP 31', 9-can (s) 11', 15-POR 65', 22-ksa (s) 45'+1, 32-POR 90'+3, 35-SEN {2} 44', 39-arg {2} (s) 39', 45-gha (s) 21']... Extra Time: 0 [-]... PSO: 0 (-/-) [-]... Red Card (GF/GA): 2 (17-WAL R 86' (0/2), 48-CMR 2Y 90'+3 (0/0); 30-KOR Coach R 90'+11)... Multiple Goals: 14 [ [Valencia 2 (1-ECU), Saka 2 (3-ENG), Taremi 2 (3-SEN), Giroud 2 (5-FRA), Torres 2 (10-ESP), Richarlison 2 (16-BRA), Mbappe 2 (23-FRA), Kramaric 2 (27-CRO), Cho 2 (30-KOR), Mohammed 2 (30-GHA), Fernandes 2 (32-POR), Rashford 2 (33-ENG), Havertz 2 (44-GER), Arrascaeta 2 (45-URU)]... Goal Line Tech: 1 (42-CAN xG 72').. VAR (-Reversal(Taken Away), +Reversal(Added), =Confirmed, xNo Call): 34 [1-ECU xOff+{g-} 3', 4-ENG xFoul+{pk+IRN} 90'+10, 8-KSA xFoul+{pk+ARG} 6', 8-ARG xOff+{g-} 27', 6-TUN xHB= 90'+4, 7-MEX xFoul+{pk+POL} 54', 11-GER xHB{xPK}= 22', 11-JPN Foul{pk}= 31', 11-GER xOff+{g-} 45'+4, 9-BEL xHB+{pk+CAN} 8', 9-BEL xFoul{xPK}= 13', 9-BEL xFoul{xPK}= 38', 15-GHA Foul{pk}= 62', 17-IRN xOff+{g-} 15', 17-WAL Y-{+R} 84', 18-SEN xFoul{xPK}= 34', 19-ECU Off{xg}= 45'+4, 22-POL xFoul+{pk+KSA} 43', 26-MAR xOff+{g-} 45'+2, 28-GER xOff+{g-} 39', 29-CMR Off-{g+} 63', 30-GHA xHB{g}= 24', 31-BRA xOff+{g-} 64', 32-URU xHB+{pk+POR} 89', 36-NED xHB+{g-} 68', 34-USA xOff+{g-} 45'+7, 38-FRA xOff+{g-} 90'+8, 37-DEN Off{xFoulxPK}= 71', 39-POL xFoul+{pk+ARG} 36', 41-CRO xOff+{pk-} 15', 43-JPN xOOB{g}= 48', 44-GER Off-{g+} 89', 45-GHA Off-{URU Foul+pk+GHA} 16', 45-GHA xFoulxPK= 58']... 58%+ ss (w/in contest): 9 [3-ENGvIRN (72) W, 8-ARGvKSA (64) L, 11-GERvJPN (65) L, 10-ESPvCRC (74) W, 33-ENGvWAL (58) {2} W, 37-DENvAUS (60) L, 39-ARGvPOL {2} (67) W, 43-ESPvJPN (78) {2} L, 44-GERvCRC (61) W]... Zero SOG (Shots): 8 [1-QAT (5), 10-CRC (0), 14-URU (10), 14-KOR (6), 16-SRB (4), 30-SUI (4), 39-POL (4), 42-CAN (5)]... 20+ Shots (S/SOG/G): 10 [5-FRA (22/7/4) W, 11-GER (25/9/1) L, 9-CAN (21/4/0) L, 16-BRA (24/10/2), 17-IRN (21/6/2), 23-FRA (21/6/2) {2} W, 30-KOR (21/6/2) L, 39-ARG (25/13/2) W, 40-MEX (25/10/2) W, 44-GER (32/11/4)]... Breaks (>30 min): 0 [-]... Regions (Teams/R16/QF/SF/F/C): UEFA (13/8) 15-14-10, AFC (6/3) 7-10-1, CAF (5/2) 7-5-3, CONMEBOL (4/2) 6-4-2, CONCACAF (4/1) 3-6-3, OCEANIA (-)... Match Order of Play: RR: 1 | 3-2-4 | 8-6-7-5 | 12-11-10-9 | 13-14-15-16 | 17-18-19-20 | 21-22-23-24 | 25-26-27-28 | 29-30-31-32 | 35-36A-33-34B | 37-38D-39-40C | 41-42F-43-44E | 45-46H-47-48G | R16: 49-50 | 52-51 | 53-54 | 55-56 | QF: 58-57 | 60-59 | SF: 61 | 62 | 3rd: 63 | F: 64 ]...
Qualification (x-Advance, y-Group Winner, z-Elim): z-QAT (A) (19-NED D)... x-FRA (D) (23-W) | z-CAN (F) (27-L)... x-BRA (G) (31-W) | x-POR (H) (32-W)... y-NED (A) (36-W) | x-SEN (A) (35-W) | z-ECU (A) (35-L) | y-ENG (B) (33-W) | x-USA (B) (34-W) | z-WAL (B) (33-L) | z-IRN (B) (34-L)... y-FRA (D) (GDvAUS) | x-AUS (37-W) | z-TUN (37-AUS W) | z-DEN (37-L)... y-ARG (C) (39-W & 40-KSA L) | x-POL (C) (GDvMEX) | z-MEX (C) (GDvPOL) | z-KSA (C) (40-L)... y-MAR (F) (42-W & 41-CRO D) | x-CRO (F) (41-D) | z-BEL (F) (41-D & 42-MAR W) | y-JPN (E) (43-W & 44-CRC L) | x-ESP (E) (GDvGER) | z-GER (GDvESP) | z-CRC (44-L)... z-POR (45-GHA L) | x-KOR (46-W & GFvURU) | z-URU (GFvKOR) | z-GHA (45-L)...
Sides 'N Kicks - Only BRA, ARG, FRA, and ENG were picked by everyone; 11% of teams who lose their first game make the Round of 16 (since field expanded to 32 teams in 1998) while a win gets you in 84% of the time (59% advance after drawing their first match)... the LA Galaxy are hosting watch parties with the NED-USA R16 match at Tom's Watch Bar in LA... Kevin L (KevLo) was inquiring about watch parties (Redondo Beach area) among us so we'll see - it's a great idea... yes, this issue's title is the title from Star Wars: Andor Episode 5, we'll see how long I can stick with the critically-acclaimed Andor titles (also have great quotes from the show I could use as well)... there are now 6 scoreless draws - there was just one all of 2018... there have been 26 ties at the half, the first 23 were scoreless (before KORvPOR 1:1)... good to see USA Prez Joe Biden acknowledge USA's win... ECU's Enner Valencia had scored in six straight WC matches but was shut out vSEN... CAN has lost all 6 WC matches but not as bad as MEX's debut (lost first 9) (ties El Salvador's (still 0-6-0))... FRA's 9-match WC unbeaten streak came to an end but NED extended their streak to 10... NED are 13-0-5 in their last 18 matches... I love these random stats I find - KSA is played their 19th WC match, all against different teams... POL & MAR first R16 since 1986... ESP has had 74, 56, and 78% possession (with in contest), the latter would be 82% excluding in contest possession... more stoppage time was explained by FIFA in more detail as they wanted to get closer to 60% match play... only 2nd time two CAF teams (SEN, MAR) made R16 (2014 - Algeria & Nigeria)... first time 3 AFC (AUS, JPN, KOR) teams made R16... USA and NED both missed making the 2018 WC... BEL misses R16 for first time since 1998... GER had 32 shots (11 on goal) and 14 CKs...
On Tuesday, 27 entries got the max of 16 points while Kona Coast Uno only got 7; Group A: 108 picked NED and 46 picked SEN to win while 108 got NED and 68 got SEN in their Round of 16 bracket; Group B: 92 picked ENG and 81 picked USA to win while all 109 and 82 had USA in their R16; 37 got all 4 matches correct while 50 got all 4 R16 teams correct; 4 got just one match correct and 10 got just 2 of 4 R16 teams; Cicero, DDubs, Kankleiscious, and Walloon are tied for first with 35 points while World Cup in December is last with 21 points.... on Wednesday, Ugh, as If got 14 of 16 points and Danish Dynamite got 12 while everyone else got 11 or less (Eggman 2 only getting 6); Ugh, as If was the only one to get all 4 R16 teams today while 67 got 2 of 4; Meli was the one to get all 4 matches correct (yes, picking TUN and AUS) while 3 got none; DDubs and Kankleiscious are tied for first with 46 pts while Krob1 and Walleye are tied for 3rd with 45 pts; Carseroni is now last with 30 pts; overall, 19 have 7 of the 8 R16 teams thus far while six have just 4; while 90 got ARG and 94 MEX winning their matches, just 9 picked AUS and 5 TUN; no one had picked TUN in the R16 if they snuck in (who for a few minutes was in 2nd place) but all 109 got ARG (whew!) and FRA while 41 got POL and just 2 (World Cup in December and The Red Devils) got AUS in their R16 bracket... on Thursday, Kona Coast Uno got 10 of 16 points and only one to get 3 of 4 R16 teams while Sebass only got 2 and only one to miss all 4 R16 teams; nine got 3 of 4 matches correct while Clingons went 0-4; Kankleiscious is alone in 1st with 53 points and Krob1 2nd while Sebass is alone in last with 36 pts; overall, 15 have 9 of 12 R16 teams while two just have 5 (Union FC and Sebass); 104 picked GER to win, 74 CRO, 29 MAR, 23 the CRO-BEL tie, and 11 JPN; BEL broke 106 entries who had them in the R16 and 105 got burned by GE; but 101 got ESP, 81 CRO, 8 MAR, and 7 JPN in their bracket... on Friday, Four got 14 of 16 points while two got just 4 of 16 (Qatar's Last Stand and Markofthebeast who both just got BRA in R16); seven got all 4 R16 teams correct; three got 3 of 4 matches correct while 12 went 0-4; Kankleiscious is still in first with 64 points but has GER as champion; overall, 4 got 14 of 16 R16 teams while two (Union FC (101st-T, 47) and Sebass (108th-T)) only got 7 of 16; 88 picked URU to win, 56 SUI, 10 KOR, and 4 CMR; all 109 got BRA in their R16, 101 POR, 62 SUI, and 15 KOR; 82 entries had URU in their R16 and 3 had them as champs...
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Red, White & Blue vs Oranje...
Scott
HWCI circa 1990
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