Group Drama (11/30)

LA MIRADA, CA -- Yesterday, it was pretty straightforward towards the end with IRNvUSA and ECUvSEN being deciding matches.  Today, lots of drama in the final group matches of C and D as teams flip-flopped throughout the day until the final whistle.  D4-Tunisia shocked #4 D1-France's B team, 1-0, but it wasn't enough as D2-Australia shocked #10 D3-Denmark by the same score to take the 2nd place spot.  TUN was in 2nd spot for only minutes as AUS scored soon after.  DEN, needing two goals for any chance, tried to play spoiler to AUS but could not score.

C1-Argentina sat in 2nd after losing their first match and peppered C4-Poland but had their controversial PK saved in the first half.  POL was content with their superhuman GK (11 saves) even after ARG scored a couple of goals and needed to hold the line as they got outshot 25-4 and 13-0 on goal.  C3-Mexico need to make up at least four goals against POL or hope for ARG to lose.  After ARG scored to reduce the GD (goal differential) deficit to 3, MEX scored two goals (including a long FK golazo) in 6 minutes, their first goals of this WC, to cut the GD deficit to 1.  ARG scored again making MEX and POL even on GD, GF (goals for), and head-to-head (they tied).  The next tiebreaker was Fair Play (FP) points which POL started the day +2 but an early MEX yellow card increased it to +3. MEX needed a 3rd goal (almost got it in the 87' but auto-bot ruled offsides) to win on GF since POL wasn't trying to score.  But they came up short and missed the R16 for the first time since 1978 (8 straight when qualified, missed 1990 due to ban) and POL made their first R16 since 1986.

Two teams that won didn't make the R16 (TUN, MEX) and both teams also scored their first goals in their 3rd match..  Thus far, two teams with 4 points (ECU, TUN) and two teams that won their first match (ECU, KSA) failed to qualify.  AUS and ARG joined SEN as teams who lost their first match and made the R16.  All 4 matches were scoreless at the half (22 of 40 have been). 

I didn't have a MEX jersey so I wore my authentic 2022 MLS All-Star Liga MX jersey and pondered how far CONCACAF has fallen (save USA).

As it happened:

• Group D - AUSvDEN and TUNvFRA
• AUS win would guarantee R16.  DEN and TUN need to win and have help. FRA/AUS/DEN/TUN.
• 8' - TUN scores but is ruled offsides.  FRA/AUS/DEN/TUN.
• 58' - TUN goal 1-0 and leaps to 2nd via GD.  FRA/TUN GD+2/AUS/DEN.
• 60' - AUS goal 1-0 and leaps to 2nd.  DEN now needs 2 goals for any chance.  FRA GD+4/AUS/TUN/DEN.
• 71' - DEN awarded PK but was offsides before the foul. FRA GD+4/AUS/TUN/DEN.
• 90'+5 - DEN header just high - that goal would have eliminated AUS.  FRA GD+4/AUS/TUN/DEN.
• 96:01 - Final: AUS 1, DEN 0.  AUS advances.  FRA GD+4/AUS.
• 97:46: FRA scores to tie....
• 99:15:  Long whistle blows, match over...
• 99:25:  Ref listening to VAR...
• 99:50:  Ref goes to VAR...
• 101:02:  Ref says no goal... TUN still leads 1-0 (doesn't matter since AUS won).
• 102:36 - Match over again.  Final: TUN 1, FRA 0.
• Group C - POLvARG and KSAvMEX
• ARG, POL, or KSA win would guarantee R16.  MEX 4-goal win would guarantee R16.
• 16' MEX yellow.  POL now leads in fair play (FP) points -4 to -7.  POL/ARG/KSA/MEX.
• 39' - VAR gives ARG a PK but Messi's attempt is saved, Wojciech Szczesny's 8th save of the match and his 2nd PK save of the tourney.  POL/ARG/KSA/MEX.
• 46' - ARG goal 1-0.  ARG leads group.  ARG/POL/KSA/MEX.
• 47' - MEX goal 1-0. MEX jumps KSA but still in 3rd.  ARG/POL GD+2/MEX/KSA.
• 52' - MEX goal 2-0.  ARG/POL GD+1.
• 67' - ARG goal 2-0.  Now Fair Play is tiebreaker between POL & MEX as GD, GF, head-to-head even.  ARG/POL FP+3.
• 78' - POL yellow.  Fair Play now POL -5, MEX -7.  ARG/POL FP+2.
• 87' - MEX scores but ruled offside (by auto-bot).  MEX goal would effectively be a 2-goal cushion (goal would give MEX GD & GF tiebreakers).  ARG/POL FP+2.
• 90+2' - POL goal-mouth clearance keeps POL alive.  ARG/POL FP+2.
• 95:59 - Final: ARG 2, POL 0.  POL 2nd but 4+ minutes left in KSAvMEX.  ARG/POL FP+2.
• 94:40 - KSA scores!  MEX 2, KSA 1.  ARG/POL GD+1. MEX goal still makes them 2nd (GF).
• 97:28 - Final: MEX 2, KSA 1.  ARG 1st, POL 2nd (on goal differential).

Ugh, as If (29th-Tied, 39 pts) got 14 of 16 points and Danish Dynamite (5th-T, 44) got 12 while everyone else got 11 or less (Eggman 2 (79th-T, 34) only getting 6).  Ugh, as If was the only one to get all 4 R16 teams today while 67 got 2 of 4. Meli (101st-T, 32) was the one to get all 4 matches correct (yes, picking TUN and AUS) while 3 got none. DDubs and Kankleiscious are tied for first with 46 pts while Krob1 and Walleye are tied for 3rd with 45 pts.  Carseroni is now last with 30 pts.  Overall, 19 have 7 of the 8 R16 teams thus far while six have just 4.

While 90 got ARG and 94 MEX winning their matches, just 9 picked AUS and 5 TUN.  No one had picked TUN in the R16 if they snuck in (who for a few minutes was in 2nd place) but all 109 got ARG (whew!) and FRA while 41 got POL and just 2 (World Cup in December (101st-T) and The Red Devils (53rd-T, 37)) got AUS in their R16 bracket.