Sunday, July 26, 2020

Errors Lead to 1-0 Shutouts (7/25)

DROPPED MY 5-YEAR OLD IPAD AIR 2, CA -- With no Extra Time and matches going straight to penalty kick shootout, it's no wonder teams were tentative and both matches had scoreless first halves.  

Host 1A-Orlando City SC scored off a defensive miscue in the 60' to win 1-0 over the 3C-Impact de Montreal to advance to the Quarterfinals.  ORL played like the favorite they were as Thierry Henry's team lacked any urgency most of the match.  The line judge played a role nullifying an ORL goal by waving his flag.  If  the ref did what he was supposed to, in this photo-finish offsides, and waited to waive his flag after the goal or kept his flag down, it could've been reviewed by VAR.  ORL has a tough match ahead of them as they will face the winner of 2B-Seattle and 2F-LAFC, but ORL will have two extra days rest.

2A-Philadelphia Union scored off a NE midfield misplay at midfield in the 63' to win 1-0 over the 2C-New England Revolution to advance to the Quarterfinals.  Both Group A teams beat Group C teams.  1C-Toronto FC should then feel weary of their match against Group A 3A-New York City FC.

NE head coach Bruce Arena was red-carded after the match.  My estimates for Disciplinary Points only include match statistics since subsequent discipline or nullifying cards can come 1-2 days later and it's still not clear (nor any official total) how the DP is recalculated.  For instance, 4A-Inter Miami FC's Juan Agudelo's first yellow card was rescinded two days later, but he got a second card for a red card, so do the 7 points go down to 3, because the red card is still there.  Does any added supplemental mean 8 points so a card 1-2 days later means 8 points instead of 3 if it happened in the match?  Does a fine for simulation mean 8 points?  We probably won't get a tally unless it comes into play as a tiebreaker.

Four had ORL and 8 had PHI in the Quarterfinals.  Six Foot Box and Deutschland = Koenig got both right and are now just 3 points behind leader Bobby Cee Racer (54 pts).   Four got none right but Super League is still in last with 39 pts.

There was a small error in my 32K simulation but in correcting it for the 8K simulation, all entries are still alive.  But just 8 now remain who can win the pool.  Bobby Cee Racer is still the overwhelming favorite to win the pool (65.8%) and prizes (93.8%).  Six Foot Box and Deutschland = Koenig have a 48.2% and 43.9% of winning a prize with the latter with a 16.9% to win the pool.  Super League still has an 18 of 8192 chance of finishing 3rd.

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