Foster's Futbol Brew 12.13.22.1
Argentines at home and abroad have their stomachs in knots this morning. It's as if they drank this bad batch of Foster's Football Brew.
Google says Argentina has a 61% chance to win this semifinal game vs. Croatia. Oddsmakers at various casinos and online sports betting sites are also leaning steadily toward La Albiceleste. I have to scratch my head as to who should be favored; I think Croatia may have a slight edge. Let's take look at the Pro's & Con's on why either team should advance to the finals or go home in defeat:
-Lost to SAUDI ARABIA. That still sticks with every player on the pitch that took a shot or didn't clear the ball on defense when scored against by SAUDI ARABIA.
-Starting every game anxiously since losing to Saudi Arabia- they don't hold their nerve as well as CRO, and it's been evident in the first 25-30 minutes of the four games ARG won
-Knowing they lost bad to CRO in 2019
-Without regular starting left wingback Acuna due to two yellow cards. That hurts on both offense and defense.
-Messi's Last Stand- did I mention the nerves? Messi has had some uncharacteristically bad shots on free kicks and from open play whenever he tries to aim for the "top shelf"... sailing too many attempts over the bar (and in some cases wide)
-Unable to hold on to leads, giving up late goals vs. Saudi Arabia, Australia, and The Netherlands
My PRO's v CON's analysis seems to slightly favor Croatia, a highly motivated country of just 4 million people who's squad finds a way to be the last team standing one game after the next, no matter the opponent. My only hope for ARG is CRO being overconfident or looking ahead to playing FRA, their World Cup nemesis (FRA eliminated CRO's best two World Cup squads in the semi's in '98 and the finals in '18). Will CRO stifle ARG, or will ARG hold their nerve and live up to their potential?
CRO Con's:
-Only scored two goals thus far in 5 games against teams not named Canada
-Third oldest squad at the World Cup at 29.5 years of age, and thus far have played the most minutes of any team at the tourney. Although they could have tired legs, their lack of possession reduces the impact of these extra minutes.
-A poor run in 2020-2021 UEFA Nations League and not-so-great run at the 2020 Euro Finals (took place in 2021) reflects lackluster recent major tournament performance where the team "looked old"
-Better team than their 2018 edition, where ARG lost 3-0 to CRO in Group Stage
-Better defense & goalkeeper than 2018
-Better striker (Julian Alvarez) than in 2018
-Messi's Last Stand- as much as he can will this team to glory, he doesn't actually have to do it on his own- numerous teammates have proven to be capable of scoring, playmaking, and possessing the ball
-Tenacity in winning 50-50 balls; they played keepaway well for ~70 minutes against The Netherlands
-Have advanced past semi-finals all five previous times to reach the World Cup Finals (1930, 1978, 1986, 1990, and 2014)
CRO Pro's:
-Unbeaten thus far in WC
-Riding optimism from previous encounter with ARG
-Solid team spirit & steady nerves; confident to beat any futbol giants, incl Brazil
-They are MASTERS at the PK Shootout. It's been a strategy for winning
-Great coach and tactics- Dalic has brought success to Croatia since taking over 5 years ago, incl the '18 World Cup rum and the current tournament
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Although we should all hope for a high-scoring match for entertainment purposes, this sour brew predicts CRO advances as usual in PK's after a scoreless draw. And yet, there's no doubt this little guy (pictured below) and me will be rooting for Argentina to go all the way!
VAMOS ARGENTINA, VAMOS ARGENTINA, VAMOS ARGENTINA!!!
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